PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Weymouth vs Dover Athletic Result & Analysis

Date: 18/09/2021
Time: 17:20
Final 1-1
W
Weymouth
Vs
63%
22%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
DA
Dover Athletic
England: National League
Referee: S Tallis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Weymouth win✗ Miss
63.4%
Avg Implied 44.7% · @ 2.07
Edge
+18.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.47
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic win✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.22
Edge
-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

W
Weymouth

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W13L03L04L02L01L31W43W11D24LH·ALT15/05H·BOR18/05A·NOT22/05A·HAR29/05H·BOR21/08A·GRI28/08H·MAI30/08A·SOL04/09H·NOT11/09A·DAG14/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.731.231.231.122.12
vs Stronger (14)0.641.710.711.430.572.00
vs Similar (11)1.551.452.250.501.142.00
vs Weaker (5)1.802.401.002.002.332.67
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dover Athletic

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D13L02L31W13L02L01L23L00D14LH·BOR12/01A·WRE16/01H·SOL23/01H·BAR26/01A·YEO30/01A·MAI28/08H·BOR30/08A·ALT04/09H·CHE11/09A·EAS14/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.752.250.821.730.672.89
vs Stronger (11)0.641.640.830.670.402.80
vs Similar (9)0.893.000.803.001.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Weymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.5%
@ 1.80+7.4%
Under 2.5
40.5%
@ 1.96-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.4%
1-1 ✓
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.8%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
4.7%
Weymouth goals ↓
Dover Athletic goals →
01234
05.5%3.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
18.8%10%4.4%1.4%0.3%
210%9.9%4.7%1.5%0.4%
37.4%7.0%3.4%1.1%0.3%
43.9%3.7%1.8%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Weymouth goals (down), columns = Dover Athletic goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Weymouth is 0.34 points better than Dover Athletic in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 0.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Weymouth is 0.07 goals better than Dover Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 0.84).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Weymouth is 0.30 goals better than Dover Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

W
Weymouth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L02L02L02L00D20W31W00D21WH·ALT15/05H·BOR18/05A·NOT22/05A·HAR29/05H·BOR21/08A·GRI28/08H·MAI30/08A·SOL04/09H·NOT11/09A·DAG14/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.540.540.760.94
vs Stronger (14)0.430.790.430.860.430.71
vs Similar (11)0.910.640.750.001.001.00
vs Weaker (5)0.801.000.500.501.001.33
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dover Athletic

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D01L30W11D02L01L11D00D04LH·BOR12/01A·WRE16/01H·SOL23/01H·BAR26/01A·YEO30/01A·MAI28/08H·BOR30/08A·ALT04/09H·CHE11/09A·EAS14/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.451.200.551.000.331.44
vs Stronger (11)0.360.730.500.330.201.20
vs Similar (9)0.561.780.601.800.501.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Weymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Weymouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Weymouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Weymouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

W
Weymouth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D01L02L00D01L11D12L11D03LH·ALT15/05H·BOR18/05A·NOT22/05A·HAR29/05H·BOR21/08A·GRI28/08H·MAI30/08A·SOL04/09H·NOT11/09A·DAG14/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.970.690.690.351.18
vs Stronger (14)0.210.930.290.570.141.29
vs Similar (11)0.640.821.500.500.141.00
vs Weaker (5)1.001.400.501.501.331.33
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dover Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DA
Dover Athletic

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L01L02L00D00D12L00D10WH·BOR12/01A·WRE16/01H·SOL23/01H·BAR26/01A·YEO30/01A·MAI28/08H·BOR30/08A·ALT04/09H·CHE11/09A·EAS14/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.050.270.730.331.44
vs Stronger (11)0.270.910.330.330.201.60
vs Similar (9)0.331.220.201.200.501.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Weymouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Weymouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Weymouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Weymouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dover Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards89.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.582.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards77.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
WEY wins
0
Draws
0
DA wins

Head-to-head

Weymouth vs Dover Athletic · H/A from WEY
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

W
Weymouth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/21ADag and Red Vs WEY4-2
11/09/21HWEY Vs Notts County1-1
04/09/21ASolihull Vs WEY3-4
30/08/21HWEY Vs Maidenhead3-1
28/08/21AGrimsby Vs WEY1-0
21/08/21HWEY Vs Boreham Wood0-2
29/05/21AHartlepool Vs WEY4-0
22/05/21ANotts County Vs WEY3-0
18/05/21HWEY Vs Boreham Wood1-3
15/05/21HWEY Vs Altrincham2-1

DA
Dover Athletic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/21AEastleigh Vs DA4-1
11/09/21HDA Vs Chesterfield0-0
04/09/21AAltrincham Vs DA3-2
30/08/21HDA Vs Boreham Wood0-1
28/08/21AMaidenhead Vs DA2-0
30/01/21AYeovil Vs DA3-1
26/01/21HDA Vs Barnet3-1
23/01/21HDA Vs Solihull0-2
16/01/21AWrexham Vs DA3-1
12/01/21HDA Vs Boreham Wood1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

W
Weymouth
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDL0.96
HomeWLLWD1.12
AwayLLLWL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%33%21%
AVG goals2.882.882.88
Over 1.5 %73%75%71%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %31%29%33%
Scored1.151.211.08
Conceded1.731.671.79
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet17%17%17%
Corners---
Cards2.833.252.42
DA
Dover Athletic
England: National League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL0.55
HomeDLWLD1.00
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %15%27%0%
AVG goals3.002.553.56
Over 1.5 %75%55%100%
Over 2.5 %50%36%67%
Over 3.5 %45%36%56%
Scored0.750.820.67
Conceded2.251.732.89
BTTS45%36%56%
Clean Sheet10%18%0%
Corners---
Cards3.153.273.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red
4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay
4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead
4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn
4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth
4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic
4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches