The match between Wigan and Milton Kingdom Dons is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a Wigan victory stands at 30%, a draw at 30%, and a MK Dons win at 40%. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability.
Wigan, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.85 conceded. MK Dons, on the road against a comparable side, average 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (96.2% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.2% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, failed to materialise as Wigan edged Milton Kingdom Dons 3-1, a result that extended the home side’s recent win. The model had assigned a 40% probability to the away triumph, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%) and Under 5.5 (96.2%). The final score of 3-1 matched the home side’s recent form, which had seen them win their last match, while the away team had come off a defeat.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wigan win✓ Hit
30.2%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.32
Edge
-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
Dafabet
2.39
William Hil
2.38
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.42
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.58
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Milton Keynes Dons win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.87
Edge
+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.01
Dafabet
2.95
10Bet
2.92
BetVictor
2.90
Unibet
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wigan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.47
0.93
0.86
0.94
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
1.04
1.41
1.00
0.85
1.07
1.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milton Keynes Dons
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.97
1.50
0.69
1.79
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.06
1.11
1.00
1.71
1.14
vs Weaker (12)
2.17
0.67
2.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
@ 1.23-4.7%
Under 1.5
28.8%
@ 3.85+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.26
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
1xBet
3.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.9%
@ 1.76-9.7%
Under 2.5
56.1%
@ 2.03+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.83
SBO
1.82
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Bet365
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.8%
@ 2.83-10.0%
Under 3.5
77.2%
@ 1.38+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.87
1xBet
2.76
Under
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
@ 1.60-7.4%
No
49.5%
@ 2.20+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betfair
1.60
No
Betfair
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.13+6.9%
0-1
10.3%@ 9.47+5.6%
0-0
10.1%@ 11.11+6.0%
1-2
8.5%@ 9.56+3.8%
1-0
8.5%@ 8.52+3.2%
0-2
7.6%@ 14.29+4.5%
2-1
7.2%@ 8.54+2.0%
2-0
5.4%@ 11.63+1.6%
Wigan goals ↓
Milton Keynes Dons goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10%
7.6%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.5%
14%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.4%
7.2%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.0%
2.7%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wigan goals (down), columns = Milton Keynes Dons goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Wigan is 0.17 points worse than Milton Keynes Dons in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Wigan is 0.26 goals worse than Milton Keynes Dons in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Wigan is 0.04 goals better than Milton Keynes Dons in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wigan
For 6.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Milton Keynes Dons
For 4.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wigan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
9.5
11.8
3.1
3.2
2.9
23.4
23.6
23.1
vs Stronger (1)
5.0
-
5.0
4.0
-
4.0
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (45)
10.8
9.4
12.2
2.9
3.2
2.6
23.2
23.8
22.5
vs Weaker (4)
11.3
13.0
10.5
4.5
3.5
5.5
26.7
20.0
30.0
% over line
58%
52%
64%
42%
40%
44%
60%
57%
64%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
58%
60%
56%
40%
43%
36%
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milton Keynes Dons
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.6
3.5
3.7
3.4
23.1
23.1
23.1
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
13.0
10.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
19.5
15.0
24.0
vs Similar (27)
10.1
9.9
10.3
3.9
3.9
3.9
24.3
24.0
24.6
vs Weaker (21)
7.9
7.1
8.7
3.0
3.5
2.6
21.8
22.7
21.0
% over line
42%
42%
42%
54%
52%
56%
58%
54%
62%
% under line
58%
58%
58%
46%
48%
44%
42%
46%
38%
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Blackpool
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Burton
10.2
Bromley
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Doncaster
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Burton
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
24.0
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.8
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.0%
@ 1.49-12.0%
Under 9.5
50.0%
@ 2.44+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Under
Betano
2.65
Superbet
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.34
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.7%
Under 3.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.7%
Under 21.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wigan or Draw✓ Hit
60.0%
Avg Implied 67.2% · @ 1.39
Edge
-7.2%
30%
30%
40%
covers Wigan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Wigan or Milton Keynes Dons✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.6%
30%
30%
40%
covers Wigan + Milton Keynes Dons
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons✗ Miss
69.8%
Avg Implied 60.1% · @ 1.55
Edge
+9.7%
30%
30%
40%
covers Draw + Milton Keynes Dons
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wigan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.2%
@ 1.22-9.2%
Under
32.8%
@ 3.94+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.35
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Wigan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.6%
@ 2.10-13.9%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.68+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.11
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
BetVictor
1.70
Wigan over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
10.3%
@ 4.62-9.9%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.17+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Wigan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 10.28-6.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.04+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
9.60
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.3%
@ 1.28+0.5%
Under
26.7%
@ 3.40-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.62
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 2.40-0.9%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.52+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
Unibet
2.45
1xBet
2.41
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 5.59-1.9%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.12+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 12.58-3.0%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wigan, so a minus line means Wigan give that many goals of a start and Milton Keynes Dons receive them. At -1, Wigan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wigan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wigan)Actual: Draw
Wigan -2
3.8%
@ 9.32-5.7%
Draw -2
8.7%
@ 6.30-5.5%
Milton Keynes Dons +2
87.5%
@ 1.17+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.20
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Wigan)Actual: Wigan
Wigan -1
12.5%
@ 4.42-7.7%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 4.02-4.6%
Milton Keynes Dons +1
69.8%
@ 1.55+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Bet365
1.53
Handicap +1 (Wigan)Actual: Wigan
Wigan +1
60.0%
@ 1.39-4.6%
Draw +1
21.1%
@ 4.50+1.2%
Milton Keynes Dons -1
18.9%
@ 5.80+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Handicap +2 (Wigan)Actual: Wigan
Wigan +2
81.1%
@ 1.10+0.2%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 7.58+0.4%
Milton Keynes Dons -2
6.7%
@ 12.30-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
12.50
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wigan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.36
0.36
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.70
0.38
0.38
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milton Keynes Dons
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.33
1.06
0.25
1.21
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.25
0.89
0.33
1.14
0.14
vs Weaker (12)
1.50
0.25
1.50
0.17
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.7%
@ 1.34-1.0%
Under 0.5
31.3%
@ 3.07+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.58-1.4%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.45+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.66
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 6.46-3.6%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.09+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
6.50
1xBet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wigan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.2%
@ 1.91-2.4%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.81+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Wigan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 5.67-2.2%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.10+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.05
Marathonbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.40
Superbet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Wigan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 16.42-3.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.6%
@ 2.08-1.9%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.67+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.06
Under
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 6.76-3.7%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.07+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.20
Superbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 19.33-3.4%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wigan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.57
0.50
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.70
0.62
0.46
0.50
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milton Keynes Dons
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.44
0.44
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.81
0.22
0.67
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.42
0.83
0.17
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Wigan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.2%
@ 1.19+2.9%
Under 0.5
18.8%
@ 4.27-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.1%
@ 1.94-4.8%
Under 1.5
56.9%
@ 1.79+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 3.91-5.7%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.22+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wigan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.7%
@ 1.62-2.6%
Under
45.3%
@ 2.17+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Under
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Wigan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
17.7%
@ 3.99-5.5%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.21+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Wigan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 10.25-5.5%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.3%
@ 1.73-3.4%
Under
49.7%
@ 2.00+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 4.64-4.6%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.15+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 12.33-4.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.02
Betfair
1.02
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.0%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.7%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+9.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
+11.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.19
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.2%
1.38
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+10.0%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
73.4%
1.56
Superbet
1.70
Unibet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.52
+14.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.3%
1.28
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.2%
1.23
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Unibet
1.24
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.2%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
-2.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wigan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
Jon Mellish0%
Fraser Murray0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
J. Carragher0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
R. Walsh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Finley Burns33%
Archie Harris33%
Jon Mellish25%
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
J. Carragher25%
Fraser Murray0%
J. Walsh0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
Akeel Higgins0%
R. Walsh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Power25%
J. Carragher25%
Jon Mellish0%
J. Weir0%
Fraser Murray0%
D. Costelloe0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
S. Perkins0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
R. Walsh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fraser Murray67%
S. Perkins50%
R. Walsh33%
J. Weir25%
M. Power25%
D. Costelloe25%
Jon Mellish0%
J. Walsh0%
Finley Burns0%
Luke Harris0%
Connor Barrett0%
J. Carragher0%
Akeel Higgins0%
Archie Harris0%
Milton Keynes Dons
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Collins50%
Ryan Wintle25%
G. Jones0%
Charlie Goode0%
M. Ekpiteta0%
S. Nombe0%
C. Paterson0%
B. Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
D. Barlaser0%
Ryan Barnett0%
Cohen Bramall0%
S. Silvera0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Collins25%
Charlie Goode25%
G. Jones0%
Ryan Wintle0%
M. Ekpiteta0%
S. Nombe0%
C. Paterson0%
B. Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
D. Barlaser0%
Ryan Barnett0%
Cohen Bramall0%
S. Silvera0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Wiles25%
G. Jones0%
A. Collins0%
Ryan Wintle0%
Charlie Goode0%
M. Ekpiteta0%
S. Nombe0%
C. Paterson0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
D. Barlaser0%
Ryan Barnett0%
Cohen Bramall0%
S. Silvera0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Collins25%
Charlie Goode25%
G. Jones0%
Ryan Wintle0%
M. Ekpiteta0%
S. Nombe0%
C. Paterson0%
B. Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
D. Barlaser0%
Ryan Barnett0%
Cohen Bramall0%
S. Silvera0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Wigan's squad is €7m less valuable than Milton Keynes Dons's (€7m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Wigan's attack is €3m less valuable than Milton Keynes Dons's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Wigan's midfield is €4m less valuable than Milton Keynes Dons's (€2m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Wigan and Milton Keynes Dons have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wycombe