The model points to an Excelsior victory as the most likely outcome, a 57% chance that the away side will come away with the win, compared with 20% for a Willem II triumph and 23% for a draw. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most probable scoreline a 1-1 stalemate at 10.7%. Willem II, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.12 conceded, while Excelsior, on the road, has a slightly higher output of 1.8 goals and 1.3 conceded. The edge the model sees over the market is most pronounced in the “Away +2 handicap” pick, which carries a 92.2% probability and an 11% edge. Other high-confidence selections include “Home under 2.5 HT goals” at 98.6%, “Under 7.5” at 98.4%, and “Home under 3.5 goals” at 97.2%. The model also favors “Home under 2.5 2H goals” (96.9%) and “Away under 2.5 HT goals” (95.6%). Lower-margin picks such as “Under 6.5” (95.8%) and “Away under 2.5 2H goals” (92.0%) round out the selection list.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Willem II win
19.4%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.85
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
1xBet
2.91
Betano
2.90
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.55
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.70
10Bet
3.65
1xBet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Excelsior win
57.5%
Avg Implied 40.8% · @ 2.30
Edge
+16.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.36
Betano
2.35
Dafabet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
BetVictor
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Willem II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.41
1.29
1.92
0.92
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.61
1.04
1.44
1.12
1.83
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.40
1.33
1.33
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
1.70
1.80
1.60
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.25
1.10
1.20
1.80
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.3%
@ 1.19+4.6%
Under 1.5
16.7%
@ 4.39-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.63
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Unibet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.1%
@ 1.65+4.0%
Under 2.5
38.9%
@ 2.21-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
1xBet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.8%
@ 2.59+2.6%
Under 3.5
61.2%
@ 1.47-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.70
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Both teams to score
Yes
59.6%
@ 1.53-1.1%
No
40.4%
@ 2.36+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.53
No
Betfair
2.45
BetVictor
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 6.66+3.9%
1-2
9.9%@ 8.52+4.6%
0-2
8.8%@ 11.90+5.0%
0-1
7.7%@ 9.47+2.9%
1-3
6.7%@ 15.16+3.7%
0-3
6.0%@ 21.20+3.9%
2-2
5.5%@ 10.93+1.4%
2-1
5.4%@ 9.63+0.8%
Willem II goals ↓
Excelsior goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
7.7%
8.8%
6.0%
3.0%
1
3.8%
11%
9.9%
6.7%
3.4%
2
2.7%
5.4%
5.5%
3.8%
1.9%
3
1.0%
2.0%
2.1%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Willem II goals (down), columns = Excelsior goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Willem II is 0.02 points better than Excelsior in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Willem II is 0.05 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Willem II is 0.25 goals worse than Excelsior in terms of goals conceded per game (1.90 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Willem II
For 5.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 10.5 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
For 3.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 8.3 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Willem II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
22.1
23.2
20.9
vs Stronger (1)
3.0
3.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (47)
10.5
10.4
10.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
22.0
23.0
20.9
vs Weaker (2)
13.0
14.0
12.0
3.0
6.0
0.0
23.5
27.0
20.0
% over line
59%
54%
65%
30%
30%
30%
57%
71%
40%
% under line
41%
46%
35%
70%
70%
70%
43%
29%
60%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
21.7
20.7
22.8
vs Stronger (15)
9.3
7.2
11.6
2.2
2.0
2.4
18.8
17.6
20.1
vs Similar (34)
9.4
9.6
9.2
3.1
3.4
2.9
23.0
22.1
23.8
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
12.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
42%
40%
44%
32%
28%
36%
46%
36%
56%
% under line
58%
60%
56%
68%
72%
64%
54%
64%
44%
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.3%
@ 1.81+10.3%
Under 9.5
38.7%
@ 1.88-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Betfair
1.95
Unibet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
37.2%
@ 2.20-5.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
@ 1.62+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
42.3%
Under 21.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Willem II or Draw
42.5%
Avg Implied 59.0% · @ 1.59
Edge
-16.5%
19%
23%
57%
covers Willem II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
William Hil
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Willem II or Excelsior
76.9%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.27
Edge
+3.2%
19%
23%
57%
covers Willem II + Excelsior
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Excelsior
80.6%
Avg Implied 67.2% · @ 1.39
Edge
+13.3%
19%
23%
57%
covers Draw + Excelsior
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Willem II over/under 0.5
Over
67.4%
@ 1.24-7.0%
Under
32.6%
@ 3.62+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
3.87
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Willem II over/under 1.5
Over
30.9%
@ 2.25-10.6%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.59+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.26
Betfair
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Willem II over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
@ 5.06-8.0%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.14+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Willem II over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
@ 11.42-5.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Excelsior over/under 0.5
Over
86.9%
@ 1.19+8.8%
Under
13.1%
@ 4.24-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Unibet
4.20
Excelsior over/under 1.5
Over
60.4%
@ 1.96+12.8%
Under
39.6%
@ 1.78-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Excelsior over/under 2.5
Over
33.3%
@ 4.02+10.3%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.21-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Excelsior over/under 3.5
Over
14.9%
@ 9.27+4.9%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.03-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
9.10
Unibet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Willem II, so a minus line means Willem II give that many goals of a start and Excelsior receive them. At -1, Willem II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Willem II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Willem II)
Willem II -2
2.3%
@ 12.88-4.8%
Draw -2
5.4%
@ 8.00-6.0%
Excelsior +2
92.3%
@ 1.11+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
12.50
10Bet
11.00
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Away
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Willem II)
Willem II -1
7.7%
@ 5.58-8.5%
Draw -1
11.8%
@ 4.63-7.7%
Excelsior +1
80.6%
@ 1.40+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Handicap +1 (Willem II)
Willem II +1
42.5%
@ 1.59-14.0%
Draw +1
22.1%
@ 4.12+0.3%
Excelsior -1
35.4%
@ 4.16+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Away
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Handicap +2 (Willem II)
Willem II +2
64.6%
@ 1.18-11.5%
Draw +2
17.8%
@ 6.40+3.7%
Excelsior -2
17.6%
@ 9.10+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Marathonbet
6.65
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Willem II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.53
0.53
1.15
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.43
0.56
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
@ 1.29+3.4%
Under 0.5
24.5%
@ 3.33-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 2.40-3.4%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.52+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.42
William Hil
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.7%
@ 5.49-4.2%
Under 2.5
87.3%
@ 1.11+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Betano
5.60
William Hil
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Willem II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.4%
@ 1.99-2.4%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.75+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Willem II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.4%
@ 6.06-5.9%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.09+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
6.25
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Willem II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 11.75-6.6%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.5%
@ 1.84-1.1%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.88+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
10Bet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Unibet
1.86
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.9%
@ 5.20+1.2%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.12-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.0%
@ 11.00-4.5%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Willem II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.88
0.76
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.61
0.88
0.62
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.73
0.93
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.90
1.20
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.85
0.50
1.00
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.7%
@ 1.17+2.5%
Under 0.5
18.3%
@ 4.47-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Under
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.3%
@ 1.85+2.1%
Under 1.5
47.7%
@ 1.87-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.2%
@ 3.65-0.2%
Under 2.5
74.8%
@ 1.24+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Willem II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.5%
@ 1.69-4.4%
Under
49.5%
@ 2.05+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.02
Willem II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
@ 4.38-3.8%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.17+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Willem II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 9.50-6.7%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.8%
@ 1.59+1.3%
Under
40.2%
@ 2.24-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.18
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.3%
@ 3.82-0.9%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.22+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.2%
@ 9.25-3.8%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
Under 6.5
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+1.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
Away +2 handicap
92.3%
1.11
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.10
-
+10.7%
Under 5.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.9%
Under 5.5
89.9%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
+0.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
89.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+8.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+4.2%
Away over 0.5 goals
86.9%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+8.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
85.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-4.9%
Under 25.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
+4.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+3.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+2.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-1.2%
Draw or Away
80.6%
1.39
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
+13.3%
Away +1 handicap
80.6%
1.40
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.37
+16.2%
Under 4.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.8%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-1.2%
Home or Away
76.9%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+3.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.22
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
-
+0.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.5%
1.29
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
+3.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.8%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+0.2%
Under 23.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
72.9%
1.46
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Betfair
1.40
+9.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Willem II
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Devin Haen67%
Uriel van Aalst33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Nathan Tjoe-A-On0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Tjoe-A-On67%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Devin Haen33%
Jaden Slory33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Excelsior
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Willem II's squad is €4m less valuable than Excelsior's (€13m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Willem II's attack is €3m less valuable than Excelsior's (€4m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Willem II's midfield is €1m more valuable than Excelsior's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Willem II's defence is €2m less valuable than Excelsior's (€5m vs €6m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur