The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance for F91 Dudelange, 28% for Wiltz and 27% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, but the most likely total is 2, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% chance, distinct from the total-goals expectation.
Wiltz, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded. Dudelange, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 0.67 scored and only 0.33 conceded. Wiltz’s recent form shows two straight defeats, while Dudelange comes off a win, adding context to the predicted outcome.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.3%), Over 2.5 cards (95.6%) and Over 19.5 fouls (93.6%). Each selection is presented with its probability, and no other outcome is assigned a win probability.
The win for F91 Dudelange extends their two-game winning run, while Wiltz’s recent form of LLLWD ends after a 1-2 defeat. The model’s favourite, Away win, with a 45% probability, proved correct as the final score was 1-2 in favour of the visitors. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, 1-2 or 0-1 was indeed 1-2, matching the predicted 2-goal total. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.6% and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.3%. The model delivered a clean sweep of accurate selections.
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 1.44 | 1.64 | 2.43 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 1.20 | 2.47 | 0.71 | 2.14 | 1.62 | 2.75 |
| vs Similar (14) | 2.29 | 1.36 | 2.75 | 0.88 | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
F91 Dudelange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.27 | 1.79 | 1.29 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.62 | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.69 | 1.46 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.17 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| F91 Dudelange goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 13% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Wiltz
F91 Dudelange
Wiltz| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (25) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
F91 Dudelange| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.0 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 24.7 | 25.0 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (16) | 7.5 | - | 7.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 24.5 | - | 24.5 |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 12% | 4% | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 92% | 88% | 96% | 33% | 0% | 50% |
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.93 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
F91 Dudelange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.67 | 0.52 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.23 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.53 | 1.80 | 0.43 | 1.71 | 0.62 | 1.88 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.36 | 0.71 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
F91 Dudelange| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.94 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.00 | 0.56 | 1.33 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 97.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 96.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 95.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 93.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 93.4% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +4.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 92.1% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +5.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 88.7% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 88.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 88.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 87.8% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +5.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 86.8% | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.11 | - | - | +4.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 86.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 86.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 86.0% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +5.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 84.6% | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | +5.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 81.3% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +8.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 80.2% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +0.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 79.9% | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +0.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 79.5% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | -0.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 78.3% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | -0.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 78.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +4.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 4.5 cards | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 76.5% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +4.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 76.0% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +6.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 75.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 73.0% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.21 | -1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Draw or Away | 72.4% | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.33 | +3.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Away +1 handicap | 72.4% | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +7.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 71.1% | 1.26 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | -1.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.25 | - | - | - | -2.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 31/08/24 | H | 0-4 | |
| 26/05/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 06/08/23 | A | 3-1 | |
| 14/05/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/12/22 | H | 0-3 |
Wiltz| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 2-7 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 6-0 | |
| 21/09/25 | A | 2-6 | |
| 01/06/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/05/25 | H | 2-2 |
F91 Dudelange| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 16/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Résidence Walferdange | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Atert Bissen | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | US Hostert | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 11 | US Rumelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 4.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2 | - |