FC Differdange 03 is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting an away win. This is largely due to the team's ability to score goals on the road, averaging 2.45 goals per game against weaker opponents. In contrast, Wiltz struggles to score at home, averaging just 1.29 goals per game against stronger opponents.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.2, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a probability of 11.6%.
Wiltz's home form is a concern, conceding an average of 1.71 goals per game against stronger opponents. FC Differdange 03's away form is impressive, scoring an average of 2.45 goals per game against weaker opponents while conceding just 0.64 goals.
The model's selection is the away win, with a probability of 72.2%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 84.0%. The probabilities for a home win and draw are 10.0% and 18.0%, respectively.
The win extends Wiltz's recent struggles, as they fell to a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Differdange 03. The actual result was an away win for FC Differdange 03, which is the favoured outcome predicted by the Pythia model. The model's call was correct, backing the away win with a 72.2% probability. The model's selection, the away win, came in, as did their suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals with an 84% probability, which hit.
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 1.21 | 2.50 | 0.67 | 2.17 | 1.62 | 2.75 |
| vs Similar (15) | 2.60 | 1.07 | 2.75 | 0.88 | 2.43 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
FC Differdange 03| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.07 | 0.80 | 2.17 | 0.72 | 1.92 | 0.92 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.50 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 0.71 | 1.71 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 2.56 | 0.56 | 2.73 | 0.73 | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Differdange 03 goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.7% | 8.8% | 12% | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.6% |
| 2 | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Wiltz
FC Differdange 03
Wiltz| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (25) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
FC Differdange 03| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 6.0 | 6.0 | - | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 28.5 | 28.5 | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 6.0 | 6.0 | - | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (23) | 6.0 | 6.0 | - | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | - | 4% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 100% | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | - | 96% | 93% | 100% | 0% | 0% | - |
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
FC Differdange 03| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.23 | 0.72 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.57 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.06 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+57pp vs league) | |||||
Wiltz| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.57 | 1.86 | 0.50 | 1.83 | 0.62 | 1.88 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.60 | 0.47 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 1.43 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
FC Differdange 03| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.57 | 1.44 | 0.61 | 0.92 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.93 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.50 | 0.44 | 1.73 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 95.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 88.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 87.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 86.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.17 | - | - | +6.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 4.5 cards | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away win | 72.2% | 1.50 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.50 | +11.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 01/12/24 | A | 4-1 | |
| 18/05/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/12/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/11/22 | A | 2-1 |
Wiltz| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 2-7 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 6-0 | |
| 21/09/25 | A | 2-6 | |
| 01/06/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/05/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/05/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 14/05/25 | A | 3-0 |
FC Differdange 03| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Résidence Walferdange | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Atert Bissen | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | US Hostert | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 11 | US Rumelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 4.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2 | - |