The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Progres Niederkorn, 26% for a draw and 24% for Wiltz. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at 12.3%. Wiltz, playing at home against a stronger side, has struggled, averaging only 0.67 goals scored and conceding 2.33. Progres Niederkorn, on the road against a weaker opponent, has been more prolific, scoring 1.8 on average and conceding just 1.0. Recent form shows Wiltz after two straight defeats, while Progres Niederkorn comes off a loss. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97%), Over 2.5 cards (95.7%), Over 19.5 fouls (93.3%), Under 5.5 (92.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.2%), and Away +2 handicap (90%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wiltz win
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn win
47.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wiltz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.93
1.75
1.50
1.64
2.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.19
2.44
0.75
2.12
1.62
2.75
vs Similar (13)
2.38
1.38
3.00
0.86
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.37
1.43
1.64
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.45
1.44
1.78
1.09
1.18
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
1.20
1.40
1.40
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.1%
Under 2.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.3%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
6.8%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
1-0
5.6%
Wiltz goals ↓
Progres Niederkorn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
8.3%
8.0%
4.5%
1.9%
1
5.6%
12%
9.5%
5.4%
2.3%
2
4.0%
6.8%
5.7%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.6%
2.7%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wiltz goals (down), columns = Progres Niederkorn goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
Wiltz is 1.00 points worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
Wiltz is 0.40 goals better than Progres Niederkorn in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
Wiltz is 1.40 goals worse than Progres Niederkorn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wiltz
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Progres Niederkorn
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Wiltz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
9.0
6.0
0.5
0.3
0.7
22.2
22.5
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
7.7
11.0
6.0
0.7
0.4
1.0
22.0
22.0
22.0
vs Weaker (18)
7.0
7.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
8%
4%
12%
75%
100%
50%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
92%
96%
88%
25%
0%
50%
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
30.5%
Under 9.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
88.7%
Under 3.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.9%
Under 21.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wiltz or Draw
52.2%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Wiltz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wiltz or Progres Niederkorn
73.7%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Wiltz + Progres Niederkorn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
74.0%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Draw + Progres Niederkorn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wiltz over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wiltz, so a minus line means Wiltz give that many goals of a start and Progres Niederkorn receive them. At -1, Wiltz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wiltz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wiltz)
Wiltz -2
3.5%
Draw -2
7.5%
Progres Niederkorn +2
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Wiltz)
Wiltz -1
11.0%
Draw -1
15.0%
Progres Niederkorn +1
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Wiltz)
Wiltz +1
52.2%
Draw +1
21.6%
Progres Niederkorn -1
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Wiltz)
Wiltz +2
73.9%
Draw +2
14.9%
Progres Niederkorn -2
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wiltz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.56
0.50
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.69
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.88
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.69
1.00
0.43
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.57
0.50
0.56
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.30
0.67
0.44
0.36
0.18
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.60
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.6%
Under 0.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
Under 1.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wiltz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.23
1.19
1.00
0.71
1.50
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.75
0.50
1.62
0.62
1.88
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
2.00
0.43
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Progres Niederkorn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Progres Niederkorn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.86
1.14
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.15
0.78
1.33
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.60
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.6%
Under 0.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.7%
Under 1.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.9%
Under 2.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Progres Niederkorn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Wiltz's squad is €2m less valuable than Progres Niederkorn's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Wiltz and Progres Niederkorn have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Wiltz's defence is €1m less valuable than Progres Niederkorn's (€0m vs €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →