The model favours an away win, with a 49% chance for UNA Strassen, 28% for a draw and 23% for a Wiltz victory. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.2% chance, even though the overall win probability favours the visitors. Wiltz, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.75 goals scored and concedes 2.12, while UNA Strassen, on the road against a weaker opponent, has yet to score in recent matches but concedes just one goal on average. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Over 2.5 cards (95.8%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Over 19.5 fouls (94.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.6%) and Home under 2.5 goals (91.8%). Wiltz’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while UNA Strassen rides a five-game winning streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wiltz win
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Wiltz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.93
1.75
1.50
1.64
2.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.19
2.44
0.75
2.12
1.62
2.75
vs Similar (13)
2.38
1.38
3.00
0.86
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UNA Strassen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.73
2.00
0.62
1.57
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
4.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.92
0.71
2.15
0.69
1.64
0.73
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
9.4%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
6.1%
1-3
4.9%
Wiltz goals ↓
UNA Strassen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
11%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
1
6.5%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
3.9%
6.1%
4.8%
2.5%
1.0%
3
1.3%
2.0%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wiltz goals (down), columns = UNA Strassen goals (across).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wiltz or Draw
50.8%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
49%
covers Wiltz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wiltz or UNA Strassen
72.3%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
49%
covers Wiltz + UNA Strassen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or UNA Strassen
76.9%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
49%
covers Draw + UNA Strassen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wiltz over/under 0.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
Under
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wiltz, so a minus line means Wiltz give that many goals of a start and UNA Strassen receive them. At -1, Wiltz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wiltz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wiltz)
Wiltz -2
2.4%
Draw -2
6.3%
UNA Strassen +2
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Wiltz)
Wiltz -1
8.8%
Draw -1
14.3%
UNA Strassen +1
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Wiltz)
Wiltz +1
50.8%
Draw +1
23.0%
UNA Strassen -1
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Wiltz)
Wiltz +2
73.8%
Draw +2
15.4%
UNA Strassen -2
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wiltz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.56
0.50
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.69
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.88
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.69
1.00
0.43
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UNA Strassen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.30
0.62
0.19
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.29
0.46
0.23
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wiltz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.23
1.19
1.00
0.71
1.50
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.75
0.50
1.62
0.62
1.88
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
2.00
0.43
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (UNA Strassen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UNA Strassen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.38
0.44
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
0.42
1.69
0.46
1.00
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNA Strassen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Wiltz's squad is €2m less valuable than UNA Strassen's (€0m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Wiltz and UNA Strassen have a similar attack value (both €0m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Wiltz and UNA Strassen have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Wiltz's defence is €1m less valuable than UNA Strassen's (€0m vs €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →