Wiltz are the clear favourites, the model rating them at 83% for a home win and 12% for a draw, with only a 5% chance of an away victory. Their recent 3-straight defeats are already behind them, and the model’s confidence is reinforced by the opponent’s weaker home form, where Wiltz average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. US Rumelange, playing away against a stronger side, have a higher average of 2.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, yet the venue disadvantage keeps their win probability low. The expected total goals is 3.9, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 10.4% probability. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Home +2 handicap at 98.4%, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.7%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 95.6%, Under 7.5 at 95.4%, Home or Draw at 94.6%, and Home +1 handicap at 94.6%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wiltz win
83.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
11.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange win
5.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wiltz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.93
1.75
1.50
1.64
2.43
vs Stronger (16)
1.19
2.44
0.75
2.12
1.62
2.75
vs Similar (13)
2.38
1.38
3.00
0.86
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Rumelange
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
2.10
1.80
2.40
2.60
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
2.20
2.10
1.80
2.40
2.60
1.80
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.7%
Under 1.5
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.0%
Under 2.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.4%
2-0
9.9%
4-0
8.2%
3-1
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
4-1
6.3%
1-0
5.8%
1-1
5.3%
Wiltz goals ↓
US Rumelange goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
1
5.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
2
9.9%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
0.1%
3
10%
8.0%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
8.2%
6.3%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wiltz goals (down), columns = US Rumelange goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
Wiltz is 0.40 points worse than US Rumelange in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
Wiltz is 0.40 goals better than US Rumelange in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
Wiltz is 0.20 goals better than US Rumelange in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wiltz
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
US Rumelange
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Wiltz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Rumelange
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Wiltz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
32.3%
Under 9.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
88.5%
Under 3.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.3%
Under 21.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wiltz or Draw
94.6%
Avg Implied -
83%
12%
5%
covers Wiltz + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wiltz or US Rumelange
88.4%
Avg Implied -
83%
12%
5%
covers Wiltz + US Rumelange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or US Rumelange
17.0%
Avg Implied -
83%
12%
5%
covers Draw + US Rumelange
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wiltz over/under 0.5
Over
95.7%
Under
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 3.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wiltz, so a minus line means Wiltz give that many goals of a start and US Rumelange receive them. At -1, Wiltz must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wiltz win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wiltz)
Wiltz -2
45.3%
Draw -2
20.7%
US Rumelange +2
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Wiltz)
Wiltz -1
65.9%
Draw -1
17.1%
US Rumelange +1
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Wiltz)
Wiltz +1
94.6%
Draw +1
3.8%
US Rumelange -1
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Wiltz)
Wiltz +2
98.4%
Draw +2
1.2%
US Rumelange -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wiltz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.56
0.50
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.69
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.88
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.69
1.00
0.43
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Rumelange
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.20
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.00
0.60
1.20
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wiltz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.23
1.19
1.00
0.71
1.50
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.75
0.50
1.62
0.62
1.88
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
2.00
0.43
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (US Rumelange) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
US Rumelange
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.11
1.33
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.33
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Wiltz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wiltz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wiltz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
US Rumelange over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Wiltz and US Rumelange have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Wiltz and US Rumelange have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Wiltz and US Rumelange have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
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UNA Strassen
US Mondorf-les-bains
FC Differdange 03
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Résidence Walferdange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Progres Niederkorn
Atert Bissen
US Hostert
F91 Dudelange
Victoria Rosport
AS Jeunesse Esch
Etzella Ettelbruck
Swift Hesperange