The match between Woking and South East London is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 39% for Woking, 30% for a draw, and 31% for South East. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Woking, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.14 conceded. South East, on the road against a comparable side, scores 1.0 on average and concedes 0.88. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 87.6%, Under 3.5 at 77.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 73.6%, and Over 1.5 at 71.0%. Each of these picks carries its own probability, and the edge for Over 2.5 cards is highlighted. The game is poised to be evenly matched, with neither side clearly dominating the other.
Results analysis
Southend’s triumph over Woking shocked the model’s pre-match favourite, the home win, which had a 39% probability. The final score of 2-3 confirmed the away victory, proving the model’s call wrong. The match delivered a total of five cards, hitting the model’s “Over 2.5 cards” selection (87.6% chance) while missing the “Under 3.5” (77.3%) and “Over 3.5 cards” (73.6%) picks. The “Over 1.5” selection (71.0%) also hit, reflecting the high number of goals. Woking, coming off a draw in their last five, failed to extend their run, whereas Southend, also on a draw, continued their winning streak with a decisive away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Woking win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.70
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.19
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.52
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Woking
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.67
1.43
1.79
1.62
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
1.43
1.36
0.86
1.43
2.00
1.29
vs Similar (16)
1.62
1.94
2.00
2.14
1.33
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.50
1.36
0.69
1.31
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.64
1.29
1.43
0.29
1.86
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.93
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.7%
@ 1.94-4.4%
Under 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.80+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
10.1%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.7%
Woking goals ↓
Southend goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.7%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.3%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.4%
8.4%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.2%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Woking goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
Kings Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Woking is 0.11 points worse than Southend in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
Kings Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Woking is 0.32 goals better than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
Kings Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Woking and Southend are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Woking
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.64
0.86
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.79
0.29
0.86
0.71
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.69
1.00
0.86
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.71
0.57
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.64
0.71
0.71
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Woking over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Woking
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.79
0.93
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
0.57
0.57
0.57
1.29
0.57
vs Similar (16)
0.69
1.25
1.00
1.29
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.79
0.79
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.00
0.57
0.71
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.57
1.00
0.67
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Woking over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
Woking and Southend have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Woking and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Woking and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
Woking and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →