PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Woking vs Southend Result & Analysis

Date: 12/02/2022
Time: 17:20
Final 2-3
Woking
Woking
Vs
39%
30%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Referee: E Swallow
Match preview & prediction

The match between Woking and South East London is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 39% for Woking, 30% for a draw, and 31% for South East. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Woking, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.14 conceded. South East, on the road against a comparable side, scores 1.0 on average and concedes 0.88. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 87.6%, Under 3.5 at 77.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 73.6%, and Over 1.5 at 71.0%. Each of these picks carries its own probability, and the edge for Over 2.5 cards is highlighted. The game is poised to be evenly matched, with neither side clearly dominating the other.

Results analysis

Southend’s triumph over Woking shocked the model’s pre-match favourite, the home win, which had a 39% probability. The final score of 2-3 confirmed the away victory, proving the model’s call wrong. The match delivered a total of five cards, hitting the model’s “Over 2.5 cards” selection (87.6% chance) while missing the “Under 3.5” (77.3%) and “Over 3.5 cards” (73.6%) picks. The “Over 1.5” selection (71.0%) also hit, reflecting the high number of goals. Woking, coming off a draw in their last five, failed to extend their run, whereas Southend, also on a draw, continued their winning streak with a decisive away win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Woking win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.70
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.19
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.52
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

WokingWoking

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L02L02L11D32W23L20W01L01L22DH·BAR27/11A·SOL04/12H·BOR11/12A·ALD26/12H·DOV28/12H·ALD02/01H·WEA22/01A·BRO25/01H·YEO29/01A·ALT05/02
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.671.431.791.621.56
vs Stronger (14)1.431.360.861.432.001.29
vs Similar (16)1.621.942.002.141.331.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D14L11D10W21W21W11D10W21W20WH·MAI07/12A·NOT11/12A·BRO26/12A·WEY08/01H·YEO11/01H·KIN21/01A·ALD25/01A·DOV29/01H·BAR01/02H·BRO08/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.331.501.360.691.31
vs Stronger (14)0.791.641.291.430.291.86
vs Similar (14)1.290.931.671.001.000.88
vs Weaker (2)1.502.002.003.001.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.7%
@ 1.94-4.4%
Under 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.80+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
10.1%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.7%
Woking goals ↓
Southend goals →
01234
010%8.7%5.7%2.1%0.6%
110%14%7.3%2.8%0.8%
27.4%8.4%4.7%1.8%0.5%
33.2%3.6%2.0%0.8%0.2%
41.0%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Woking goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Woking is 0.11 points worse than Southend in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.32).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Woking is 0.32 goals better than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.02).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Woking and Southend are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

WokingWoking

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L02L00D21W10W10W01L01L20WH·BAR27/11A·SOL04/12H·BOR11/12A·ALD26/12H·DOV28/12H·ALD02/01H·WEA22/01A·BRO25/01H·YEO29/01A·ALT05/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.640.860.810.62
vs Stronger (14)0.500.790.290.860.710.71
vs Similar (16)0.940.691.000.860.890.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D00D10W10W01L01L00D21W00DH·MAI07/12A·NOT11/12A·BRO26/12A·WEY08/01H·YEO11/01H·KIN21/01A·ALD25/01A·DOV29/01H·BAR01/02H·BRO08/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.530.710.570.380.50
vs Stronger (14)0.430.640.710.710.140.57
vs Similar (14)0.640.360.670.330.620.38
vs Weaker (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Woking over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

WokingWoking

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D11D11D13L10W00D00D02LH·BAR27/11A·SOL04/12H·BOR11/12A·ALD26/12H·DOV28/12H·ALD02/01H·WEA22/01A·BRO25/01H·YEO29/01A·ALT05/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.930.790.930.810.94
vs Stronger (14)0.930.570.570.571.290.57
vs Similar (16)0.691.251.001.290.441.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L11D00D11D20W10W10W00D20WH·MAI07/12A·NOT11/12A·BRO26/12A·WEY08/01H·YEO11/01H·KIN21/01A·ALD25/01A·DOV29/01H·BAR01/02H·BRO08/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.790.790.310.81
vs Stronger (14)0.361.000.570.710.141.29
vs Similar (14)0.640.571.000.670.380.50
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Woking over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards87.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.577.3%-------✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards73.6%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.571.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
Woking and Southend have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Woking and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Woking and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
Woking and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
WOK wins
0
Draws
0
SOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Woking vs Southend · H/A from WOK
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/21ASouthend Vs WOK0-2

WokingWoking

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/02/22AAltrincham Vs WOK2-2
29/01/22HWOK Vs Yeovil0-1
25/01/22ABromley Vs WOK1-0
22/01/22HWOK Vs Wealdstone2-0
02/01/22HWOK Vs Aldershot2-3
28/12/21HWOK Vs Dover Athletic3-2
26/12/21AAldershot Vs WOK1-1
11/12/21HWOK Vs Boreham Wood0-2
04/12/21ASolihull Vs WOK2-0
27/11/21HWOK Vs Barnet1-2

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/22HSOU Vs Bromley2-0
01/02/22HSOU Vs Barnet2-1
29/01/22ADover Athletic Vs SOU0-1
25/01/22AAldershot Vs SOU1-1
21/01/22HSOU Vs King’s Lynn2-1
11/01/22HSOU Vs Yeovil2-1
08/01/22AWeymouth Vs SOU0-1
26/12/21ABromley Vs SOU1-1
11/12/21ANotts County Vs SOU4-1
07/12/21HSOU Vs Maidenhead1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Woking
Woking
England: National League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD0.90
HomeLWLWL0.87
AwayWLDLD0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%26%26%
AVG goals3.003.482.59
Over 1.5 %76%83%70%
Over 2.5 %52%61%44%
Over 3.5 %38%48%30%
Scored1.281.391.19
Conceded1.722.091.41
BTTS52%57%48%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards4.104.134.07
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.20
HomeDWWWW1.17
AwayLDWDW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%31%
AVG goals2.042.211.88
Over 1.5 %58%67%50%
Over 2.5 %34%42%27%
Over 3.5 %18%21%15%
Scored0.840.960.73
Conceded1.201.251.15
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners9.1710.088.25
Cards3.543.253.81

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red
4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay
4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead
4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn
4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth
4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic
4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches