Red Bull Salzburg's recent 2-game winning run is a notable storyline heading into their match against Wolfsberger AC. The model is predicting an away win, favoring Red Bull Salzburg to take the three points. However, the market disagrees, with only a 27% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.4, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 14% probability.
Wolfsberger AC has been strong at home, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opponents. In contrast, Red Bull Salzburg has been less impressive away, averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, occurring with a 77% probability, and is expected to provide a 14% edge. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, occurring with a 71.3% probability. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 44%.
Results analysis
The match between Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg ended in a 1-1 draw, defying the pre-match favourite, Red Bull Salzburg, who had a 40% chance of winning according to the model. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect. The model also correctly predicted the under 3.5 total goals, which hit, with a 77.4% probability, and over 1.5 goals, which also hit, with a 70.9% probability. Red Bull Salzburg's recent form note reads 'coming off a draw', having drawn their last match against Wolfsberger AC. This draw extends Wolfsberger AC's run of mixed results, having won, lost, won, won and lost their last five matches.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wolfsberger AC winâś— Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.71
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.90
Dafabet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.86
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.76
Drawâś“ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.72
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.95
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
1xBet
3.76
Marathonbet
3.76
Red Bull Salzburg winâś— Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied 49.9% · @ 1.86
Edge
-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Dafabet
1.88
Betano
1.87
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Wolfsberger AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.33
1.14
0.79
1.50
1.81
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.28
1.22
0.78
0.78
1.78
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.38
1.00
0.33
2.60
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.23
1.29
1.21
1.75
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.83
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.67
1.08
1.31
1.23
2.09
0.91
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
@ 1.17-8.3%
Under 1.5
29.1%
@ 4.49+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.75
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.50
888Sport
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.6%
@ 1.61-14.6%
Under 2.5
56.4%
@ 2.24+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.26
Betano
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.6%
@ 2.48-14.8%
Under 3.5
77.4%
@ 1.48+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.2%
@ 1.55-9.5%
No
49.8%
@ 2.30+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Unibet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 âś“
14.2%@ 7.01+7.8%
0-1
10.4%@ 8.78+5.3%
0-0
10.2%@ 13.14+6.7%
1-2
8.5%@ 7.77+2.8%
1-0
8.5%@ 12.89+5.0%
0-2
7.8%@ 9.84+3.2%
2-1
7.1%@ 11.50+3.2%
2-0
5.4%@ 20.56+3.2%
Wolfsberger AC goals ↓
Red Bull Salzburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.5%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.2%
2
5.4%
7.1%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.0%
2.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wolfsberger AC goals (down), columns = Red Bull Salzburg goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
Wolfsberger AC is 1.60 points worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
Wolfsberger AC is 1.60 goals worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
Wolfsberger AC is 0.60 goals worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
Wolfsberger AC is 24.0 percentage points worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of average possession (42% vs 66%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wolfsberger AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.57
0.29
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.39
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.71
0.57
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.67
0.69
0.62
1.09
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wolfsberger AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.57
0.50
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.89
0.67
0.56
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.75
0.33
0.00
1.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.57
0.64
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.60
vs Weaker (24)
0.79
0.42
0.62
0.62
1.00
0.18
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolfsberger AC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolfsberger AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
77.4%
1.48
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
+14.8%
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.0%
1.33
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.35
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
+8.1%
âś— Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
70.9%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-8.3%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
Wolfsberger AC's squad is €93m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€12m vs €105m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
Wolfsberger AC's attack is €44m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€3m vs €47m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
Wolfsberger AC's midfield is €26m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€3m vs €29m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
Wolfsberger AC's defence is €23m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€6m vs €29m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
TSV Hartberg
Austria Lustenau
Ried
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna