Red Bull Salzburg's recent draw against Wolfsberger AC is a storyline worth noting, but the bigger picture suggests a strong away team in the Austrian Bundesliga. The model predicts an away win, with a 55% probability, making it the favourite. WSG Wattens has a 19% chance of a home win, while a draw is possible at 26%. The expected total goals are 2.6, with 2 goals being the most likely total.
The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 12.4% of the time. WSG Wattens struggles at home, scoring 1.4 goals on average while conceding 1.4. Red Bull Salzburg, on the other hand, scores 1.67 goals on average when away to weaker opponents and concedes 1.17.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with a 72.8% probability, and a 10% edge. The model also selects Over 1.5 with a 75.1% probability. WSG Wattens has a 19% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 55% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The win extends Red Bull Salzburg's unbeaten run to six matches, following a 0-3 victory over WSG Wattens. This result was the actual outcome, with the model correctly predicting an away win, the more likely outcome with a 57% probability. The model's selection, the away win, was the favourite going into the match. The model's other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a probability of 79%. The final score of 0-3 was not among the model's most likely scores, which included 1-1, 0-2, and 1-2, each with a probability of less than 12%.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
WSG Wattens winā Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied 12.1% · @ 7.70
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Pinnacle
8.38
Dafabet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.10
Drawā Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 18.5% · @ 5.04
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.72
Dafabet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Red Bull Salzburg winā Hit
57.2%
Avg Implied 69.4% · @ 1.34
Edge
-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.45
SBO
1.42
Betano
1.35
Dafabet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
WSG Wattens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.57
1.36
1.43
1.19
1.69
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
1.15
1.50
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
2.00
1.25
1.50
0.75
2.50
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
1.23
1.31
1.82
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (25)
1.68
1.20
1.25
1.33
2.08
1.08
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (WSG Wattens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
@ 1.13-3.4%
Under 1.5
21.0%
@ 5.33+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.85
BetVictor
5.75
888Sport
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.6%
@ 1.46-9.1%
Under 2.5
45.4%
@ 2.57+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.74
Betfair
2.70
BetVictor
2.63
888Sport
2.63
Betano
2.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.3%
@ 2.18-10.8%
Under 3.5
67.7%
@ 1.65+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
@ 1.70-0.3%
No
45.8%
@ 2.03+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
William Hil
1.70
No
Betfair
2.15
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 9.30+6.8%
0-2
10.1%@ 7.30+3.9%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.71+4.1%
0-1
9.6%@ 8.34+4.2%
0-0
6.7%@ 16.27+4.0%
0-3 ā
6.3%@ 9.15+1.4%
1-3
6.2%@ 9.74+1.6%
2-1
5.2%@ 19.66+2.9%
WSG Wattens goals ↓
Red Bull Salzburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
9.6%
10%
6.3%
3.0%
1
4.6%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
2.8%
5.2%
4.9%
3.1%
1.4%
3
0.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = WSG Wattens goals (down), columns = Red Bull Salzburg goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.60
Rapid Vienna
2.40
Sturm Graz
1.60
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Grazer AK
0.80
Ried
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
SCR Altach
0.60
WSG Wattens is 1.20 points worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.60).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Rapid Vienna
3.00
Lask Linz
3.00
Red Bull Salzburg
2.80
WSG Wattens
1.40
Sturm Graz
1.20
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Ried
1.20
TSV Hartberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
1.00
SCR Altach
0.80
Austria Vienna
0.60
Grazer AK
0.40
WSG Wattens is 1.40 goals worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 2.80).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lask Linz
0.40
Red Bull Salzburg
0.60
Sturm Graz
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.40
WSG Wattens
1.40
TSV Hartberg
1.60
SCR Altach
1.60
Austria Lustenau
1.80
Austria Vienna
2.00
Ried
2.00
Grazer AK
2.60
WSG Wattens is 0.80 goals worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
66%
Lask Linz
58%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
55%
Ried
52%
Grazer AK
50%
SCR Altach
49%
Austria Vienna
45%
WSG Wattens
45%
TSV Hartberg
42%
Wolfsberger AC
42%
Austria Lustenau
41%
WSG Wattens is 20.8 percentage points worse than Red Bull Salzburg in terms of average possession (45% vs 66%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
WSG Wattens or Drawā Miss
42.8%
Avg Implied -
18%
24%
57%
covers WSG Wattens + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens or Red Bull Salzburgā Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied -
18%
24%
57%
covers WSG Wattens + Red Bull Salzburg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Red Bull Salzburgā Hit
81.6%
Avg Implied -
18%
24%
57%
covers Draw + Red Bull Salzburg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
WSG Wattens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.64
0.86
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.77
0.50
0.83
0.00
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.94
0.75
0.88
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.77
0.62
0.88
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
0.84
0.72
0.75
0.67
0.92
0.77
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (WSG Wattens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
WSG Wattens over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
WSG Wattens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.71
0.57
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.29
vs Similar (16)
0.38
1.06
0.50
0.62
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Bull Salzburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Red Bull Salzburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.46
0.69
0.94
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.60
0.00
1.00
0.25
1.75
vs Weaker (25)
0.84
0.48
0.50
0.67
1.15
0.31
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (WSG Wattens) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
WSG Wattens over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSG Wattens over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Bull Salzburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Draw or Away
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.13
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
-3.4%
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+7.1%
ā Hit
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (31)
€105m
SG (26)
€52m
RV (33)
€46m
LL (22)
€44m
AV (30)
€23m
WA (28)
€12m
TH (27)
€10m
GA (23)
€9m
SA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
WW (22)
€7m
AL (22)
€5m
WSG Wattens's squad is €98m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€7m vs €105m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€47m
SG (11)
€26m
RV (11)
€16m
LL (5)
€13m
AV (11)
€9m
SA (9)
€4m
WA (9)
€3m
WW (7)
€3m
TH (9)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
WSG Wattens's attack is €45m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€3m vs €47m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (6)
€29m
SG (4)
€14m
LL (6)
€11m
RV (6)
€10m
AV (5)
€7m
WA (5)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
RIE (8)
€3m
WW (7)
€2m
SA (3)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
WSG Wattens's midfield is €27m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€2m vs €29m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (14)
€29m
LL (11)
€20m
RV (16)
€19m
SG (11)
€13m
AV (14)
€7m
WA (14)
€6m
GA (13)
€6m
TH (11)
€5m
SA (11)
€4m
WW (8)
€3m
RIE (9)
€3m
AL (9)
€2m
WSG Wattens's defence is €26m less valuable than Red Bull Salzburg's (€3m vs €29m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
Ried
Grazer AK
SCR Altach
Austria Vienna