WSPG Wels are coming off a win, having beaten FC Liefering 3-2, but their home form has been somewhat inconsistent, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding 1.0 per match against similar opponents. Austria Salzburg, on the other hand, have been on a 2-game winning run, with their most recent victory coming against First Vienna, but their away form has been defensive-minded, conceding 2.0 goals per match against similar opponents while scoring 1.1.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with a 39% chance of a home win and a 29% chance of an away win. The model's selection is a home win, with the expected total goals standing at 2.2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.6%. The model also suggests taking Under 3.5 goals, which has an 81% chance of being correct. The home side has a 39% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing. The model's other selections are Under 3.5 goals (81%), with no edge provided, and the home win (39%).
Results analysis
Austria Salzburg pulled off a surprise 0-2 away win, ending WSPG Wels' recent form resurgence. The win extends their run of four draws and two losses. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's call was wrong.
In a notable call, the model suggested Under 3.5 goals, which hit with an 81% probability. This selection was correct, as the final score was 0-2.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
WSPG Wels win✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg win✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
WSPG Wels
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.37
1.21
0.93
1.62
1.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.40
1.33
1.33
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.38
1.18
0.82
1.46
1.85
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Austria Salzburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.57
1.21
1.19
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.19
1.30
1.54
1.31
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
-
-
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (WSPG Wels) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.0%
Under 2.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.9%
1-0
11.6%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
6.8%
0-2 ✓
5.5%
WSPG Wels goals ↓
Austria Salzburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.5%
5.5%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.9%
8.1%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.2%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = WSPG Wels goals (down), columns = Austria Salzburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SKN ST. Polten
1.93
Admira Wacker
1.76
Floridsdorfer AC
1.71
FC Liefering
1.66
FC BW Linz
1.61
SKU Amstetten
1.57
First Vienna
1.48
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.38
Wacker Innsbruck
1.35
Voitsberg
1.35
Austria Salzburg
1.32
Rapid Wien II
1.21
WSPG Wels
1.14
SV Kapfenberg
1.07
Sturm Graz II
0.76
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0.66
WSPG Wels is 0.18 points worse than Austria Salzburg in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Admira Wacker
1.76
SKN ST. Polten
1.62
FC Liefering
1.62
FC BW Linz
1.60
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
SKU Amstetten
1.46
WSPG Wels
1.34
Wacker Innsbruck
1.34
Voitsberg
1.34
Austria Salzburg
1.29
Rapid Wien II
1.28
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.24
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.17
First Vienna
1.10
SV Kapfenberg
1.10
Sturm Graz II
1.00
WSPG Wels is 0.06 goals better than Austria Salzburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Floridsdorfer AC
0.64
First Vienna
0.86
SKN ST. Polten
0.93
Admira Wacker
1.00
FC BW Linz
1.14
SKU Amstetten
1.21
Austria Salzburg
1.32
Wacker Innsbruck
1.36
Voitsberg
1.36
WSPG Wels
1.41
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.41
FC Liefering
1.41
Rapid Wien II
1.55
Sturm Graz II
1.69
SV Kapfenberg
1.83
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.07
WSPG Wels is 0.09 goals worse than Austria Salzburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
53%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
WSPG Wels
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Austria Salzburg
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
WSPG Wels
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Austria Salzburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (WSPG Wels) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.5
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
First Vienna
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
10.0
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Voitsberg
9.0
FC BW Linz
8.8
Admira Wacker
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
Voitsberg
5.7
SKN ST. Polten
5.5
Floridsdorfer AC
5.4
SKU Amstetten
5.3
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.7
FC BW Linz
4.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.3
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.4
Floridsdorfer AC
26.0
Voitsberg
25.3
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.2
FC Liefering
25.1
SV Kapfenberg
24.1
SKU Amstetten
23.8
Rapid Wien II
23.8
Admira Wacker
23.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
FC BW Linz
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.3%
Under 9.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.6%
Under 3.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.4%
Under 21.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
WSPG Wels
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.75
0.82
0.64
0.62
0.85
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Austria Salzburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.79
0.57
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.56
0.85
0.62
0.36
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (WSPG Wels) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
WSPG Wels over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
WSPG Wels
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.43
0.36
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
0.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.62
0.36
0.18
0.85
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Austria Salzburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Austria Salzburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.79
0.64
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.74
0.69
0.69
0.50
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (WSPG Wels) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
WSPG Wels over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
WSPG Wels over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Austria Salzburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (44)
€37m
SGI (42)
€17m
AV( (41)
€16m
FBL (34)
€12m
RWI (41)
€8m
SSP (33)
€6m
FV (36)
€5m
SK (41)
€4m
AW (28)
€4m
AS (33)
€4m
SB (32)
€4m
FA (28)
€4m
WW (33)
€4m
SA (31)
€4m
WSPG Wels and Austria Salzburg have a similar squad value (both €4m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →