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Yarud Mariupol' vs Probiy Horodenka Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 0-0
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Vs
43%
31%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Probiy Horodenka
Probiy Horodenka
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yarud Mariupol' win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D41W11D13L21W12L11D11D40W30WH·UCS30/11A·CHE21/03H·CHO28/03A·LIV03/04H·MET08/04A·BUK12/04H·INH19/04A·MET25/04H·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.201.071.001.001.38
vs Stronger (8)0.881.751.251.250.502.25
vs Similar (22)1.091.001.000.901.171.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L12L00D30W20W10W01L31W13L10WA·CHE09/12H·MET22/03A·NYV29/03H·POD03/04A·VOR08/04H·UCS12/04A·CHO18/04H·MET25/04A·INH03/05H·AHR10/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.041.261.211.290.851.23
vs Stronger (14)1.141.571.001.571.291.57
vs Similar (13)0.920.921.431.000.330.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.1%
Under 1.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.9%
Under 2.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.5%
Under 3.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.1%
No
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
13.1%
0-0 ✓
12.7%
2-0
9.1%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.7%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
Probiy Horodenka goals →
01234
013%9.1%4.7%1.4%0.3%
113%14%5.9%1.8%0.4%
29.1%8.3%3.7%1.1%0.3%
33.8%3.5%1.6%0.5%0.1%
41.2%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = Probiy Horodenka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bukovyna
2.70
Chornomorets
2.14
Livyi Bereh
2.10
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.77
Inhulets
1.53
Metal Kharkiv
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.17
Nyva Ternopil
1.17
Chernihiv
1.03
Vorskla Poltava
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.72
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.63
Yarud Mariupol' and Probiy Horodenka are level in average points per game (both 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bukovyna
2.47
Livyi Bereh
1.67
Chornomorets
1.41
Inhulets
1.37
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.23
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.03
Yarud Mariupol'
1.03
Metal Kharkiv
1.03
UCSA
1.00
Chernihiv
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.97
Nyva Ternopil
0.83
Vorskla Poltava
0.77
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.69
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.53
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.07 goals better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Chornomorets
0.69
Livyi Bereh
0.70
Bukovyna
0.70
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.93
Yarud Mariupol'
1.07
Inhulets
1.07
Nyva Ternopil
1.07
Prykarpattia
1.14
Metal Kharkiv
1.17
Vorskla Poltava
1.20
Chernihiv
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27
UCSA
1.33
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.45
Metalurh Zaporizhya
2.03
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.17 goals better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W01L01L11D01L00D00D20W00DH·UCS30/11A·CHE21/03H·CHO28/03A·LIV03/04H·MET08/04A·BUK12/04H·INH19/04A·MET25/04H·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.570.360.710.310.44
vs Stronger (8)0.120.620.250.750.000.50
vs Similar (22)0.410.550.400.700.420.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D10W10W00D00D21W10W00DA·CHE09/12H·MET22/03A·NYV29/03H·POD03/04A·VOR08/04H·UCS12/04A·CHO18/04H·MET25/04A·INH03/05H·AHR10/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.440.430.640.540.23
vs Stronger (14)0.570.430.290.710.860.14
vs Similar (13)0.380.460.570.570.170.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W10W12L10W11D11D11D20W30WH·UCS30/11A·CHE21/03H·CHO28/03A·LIV03/04H·MET08/04A·BUK12/04H·INH19/04A·MET25/04H·AHR01/05A·NYV09/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.710.290.690.94
vs Stronger (8)0.751.121.000.500.501.75
vs Similar (22)0.680.450.600.200.750.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L00D20W10W10W01L10W03L10WA·CHE09/12H·MET22/03A·NYV29/03H·POD03/04A·VOR08/04H·UCS12/04A·CHO18/04H·MET25/04A·INH03/05H·AHR10/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.810.790.640.311.00
vs Stronger (14)0.571.140.710.860.431.43
vs Similar (13)0.540.460.860.430.170.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (25)
€9m
CHO (21)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
Yarud Mariupol''s squad is €2m more valuable than Probiy Horodenka's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€4m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
YM (6)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Probiy Horodenka have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (5)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol''s midfield is €1m more valuable than Probiy Horodenka's (€1m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and Probiy Horodenka have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
YM wins
1
Draws
0
PH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Yarud Mariupol' vs Probiy Horodenka · H/A from YM
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/25AProbiy Horodenka Vs YM0-0

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ANyva Ternopil Vs YM0-3
01/05/26HYM Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk4-0
25/04/26AMetal Kharkiv Vs YM1-1
19/04/26HYM Vs Inhulets1-1
12/04/26ABukovyna Vs YM2-1
08/04/26HYM Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya2-1
03/04/26ALivyi Bereh Vs YM3-1
28/03/26HYM Vs Chornomorets1-1
21/03/26AChernihiv Vs YM1-4
30/11/25HYM Vs UCSA1-1

Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HPH Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-0
03/05/26AInhulets Vs PH3-1
25/04/26HPH Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya3-1
18/04/26AChornomorets Vs PH1-0
12/04/26HPH Vs UCSA1-0
08/04/26AVorskla Poltava Vs PH0-2
03/04/26HPH Vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi3-0
29/03/26ANyva Ternopil Vs PH0-0
22/03/26HPH Vs Metal Kharkiv1-2
09/12/25AChernihiv Vs PH3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWW1.12
HomeDDWDW1.21
AwayWLLDW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.402.422.38
Over 1.5 %74%75%73%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %18%21%15%
Scored1.061.170.96
Conceded1.341.251.42
BTTS42%42%42%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Probiy Horodenka
Probiy Horodenka
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.19
HomeLWWWW1.36
AwayLDWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%43%23%
AVG goals2.302.502.08
Over 1.5 %63%64%62%
Over 2.5 %41%43%38%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored1.041.210.85
Conceded1.261.291.23
BTTS37%36%38%
Clean Sheet37%36%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BukovynaBukovyna3081
87%
2.7
7421+53
3.2
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4232.50.7
-
2Livyi BerehLivyi Bereh3063
63%
2.1
5021+29
2.4
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.7
-
3ChornomoretsChornomorets2962
62%
2.1
4120+21
2.1
62%
34%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2221.40.7
-
4Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk3053
53%
1.8
3628+8
2.1
53%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.20.9
-
5InhuletsInhulets3046
40%
1.5
4132+9
2.4
70%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.1
-
6Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv3037
33%
1.2
3135-4
2.2
73%
43%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.01.2
-
7Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka3036
33%
1.2
3738-1
2.5
77%
53%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.3
-
8Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'3036
30%
1.2
3132-1
2.1
70%
33%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.1
-
9Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka3036
33%
1.2
2937-8
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.2
-
10UCSAUCSA3036
33%
1.2
3040-10
2.3
70%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.3
-
11PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2934
28%
1.2
3033-3
2.2
72%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.1
-
12Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2934
28%
1.2
2431-7
1.9
59%
34%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.1
-
13ChernihivChernihiv3031
27%
1.0
3036-6
2.2
67%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.2
-
14Vorskla PoltavaVorskla Poltava3030
23%
1.0
2336-13
2.0
73%
20%
3%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
15Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi2921
14%
0.7
2042-22
2.1
72%
34%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
16Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya3019
13%
0.6
1661-45
2.6
70%
57%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
17Polissya IIPolissya II00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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