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Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA Result & Analysis

Date: 30/11/2025
Time: 09:00
Final 1-1
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Vs
32%
29%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
UCSA
UCSA
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yarud Mariupol' win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UCSA win✗ Miss
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L02L01L01L02L00D01L21W20W03LH·BUK29/09A·INH03/10H·MET09/10A·AHR14/10H·NYV19/10A·PRO25/10H·POD04/11A·VIK08/11H·VOR16/11A·PRY23/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.300.851.310.591.29
vs Stronger (4)0.751.751.501.500.002.00
vs Similar (26)0.691.230.731.270.671.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCSAUCSA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L31W02L01L14L21W41W21W11DH·PRO27/09A·VIK05/10H·PRY09/10A·CHE13/10H·LIV20/10A·BUK24/10H·MET01/11A·NYV09/11A·POD15/11H·VOR22/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.400.861.001.191.75
vs Stronger (7)0.572.430.001.671.003.00
vs Similar (23)1.171.091.090.821.251.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
9.1%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
5.7%
Yarud Mariupol' goals ↓
UCSA goals →
01234
09.1%9.2%7.0%3.1%1.0%
18.2%14%8.5%3.8%1.3%
25.7%7.7%5.1%2.3%0.8%
32.3%3.1%2.1%0.9%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yarud Mariupol' goals (down), columns = UCSA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bukovyna
2.70
Chornomorets
2.14
Livyi Bereh
2.10
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.77
Inhulets
1.53
Metal Kharkiv
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.17
Nyva Ternopil
1.17
Chernihiv
1.03
Vorskla Poltava
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.72
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.63
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA are level in average points per game (both 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bukovyna
2.47
Livyi Bereh
1.67
Chornomorets
1.41
Inhulets
1.37
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.23
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.03
Yarud Mariupol'
1.03
Metal Kharkiv
1.03
UCSA
1.00
Chernihiv
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.97
Nyva Ternopil
0.83
Vorskla Poltava
0.77
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.69
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.53
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.03 goals better than UCSA in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Chornomorets
0.69
Livyi Bereh
0.70
Bukovyna
0.70
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.93
Yarud Mariupol'
1.07
Inhulets
1.07
Nyva Ternopil
1.07
Prykarpattia
1.14
Metal Kharkiv
1.17
Vorskla Poltava
1.20
Chernihiv
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27
UCSA
1.33
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.45
Metalurh Zaporizhya
2.03
Yarud Mariupol' is 0.27 goals better than UCSA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D01L01L01L00D01L01L00D01LH·BUK29/09A·INH03/10H·MET09/10A·AHR14/10H·NYV19/10A·PRO25/10H·POD04/11A·VIK08/11H·VOR16/11A·PRY23/11
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.530.210.710.380.38
vs Stronger (4)0.250.500.501.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)0.310.540.170.670.430.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCSAUCSA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W01L00D02L21W11D11D00DH·PRO27/09A·VIK05/10H·PRY09/10A·CHE13/10H·LIV20/10A·BUK24/10H·MET01/11A·NYV09/11A·POD15/11H·VOR22/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.570.500.430.310.69
vs Stronger (7)0.141.000.001.000.251.00
vs Similar (23)0.480.430.640.270.330.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L00D00D01L00D00D20W20W02LH·BUK29/09A·INH03/10H·MET09/10A·AHR14/10H·NYV19/10A·PRO25/10H·POD04/11A·VIK08/11H·VOR16/11A·PRY23/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.790.500.250.81
vs Stronger (4)0.501.251.000.500.002.00
vs Similar (26)0.500.580.750.500.290.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UCSAUCSA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L21W01L01L12L00D30W10W11DH·PRO27/09A·VIK05/10H·PRY09/10A·CHE13/10H·LIV20/10A·BUK24/10H·MET01/11A·NYV09/11A·POD15/11H·VOR22/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.360.570.881.06
vs Stronger (7)0.431.430.000.670.752.00
vs Similar (23)0.700.650.450.550.920.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (25)
€9m
CHO (21)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€4m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
YM (6)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (5)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
Yarud Mariupol' and UCSA have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
YM wins
1
Draws
2
UCS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Yarud Mariupol' vs UCSA · H/A from YM
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/25AUCSA Vs YM0-0
14/10/24AUCSA Vs YM3-0
26/08/24HYM Vs UCSA2-3

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/25APrykarpattia Vs YM3-0
16/11/25HYM Vs Vorskla Poltava2-0
08/11/25AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs YM1-2
04/11/25HYM Vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi0-1
25/10/25AProbiy Horodenka Vs YM0-0
19/10/25HYM Vs Nyva Ternopil0-2
14/10/25AAhrobiznes Volochysk Vs YM1-0
09/10/25HYM Vs Metal Kharkiv0-1
03/10/25AInhulets Vs YM2-0
29/09/25HYM Vs Bukovyna2-3

UCSAUCSA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HUCS Vs Vorskla Poltava1-1
15/11/25APodillya Khmelnytskyi Vs UCS1-2
09/11/25ANyva Ternopil Vs UCS1-4
01/11/25HUCS Vs Metal Kharkiv2-1
24/10/25ABukovyna Vs UCS4-1
20/10/25HUCS Vs Livyi Bereh0-1
13/10/25AChernihiv Vs UCS2-0
09/10/25HUCS Vs Prykarpattia3-1
05/10/25AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs UCS2-0
27/09/25HUCS Vs Probiy Horodenka0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL0.96
HomeLLLLW1.04
AwayLLDWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%28%20%
AVG goals2.162.162.16
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %36%32%40%
Over 3.5 %14%16%12%
Scored0.820.920.72
Conceded1.341.241.44
BTTS38%36%40%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---
UCSA
UCSA
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.42
HomeDWLWD1.36
AwayLLLWW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%32%48%
AVG goals2.742.552.95
Over 1.5 %70%59%81%
Over 2.5 %49%50%48%
Over 3.5 %33%36%29%
Scored1.471.501.43
Conceded1.281.051.52
BTTS40%41%38%
Clean Sheet35%41%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BukovynaBukovyna3081
87%
2.7
7421+53
3.2
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4232.50.7
-
2Livyi BerehLivyi Bereh3063
63%
2.1
5021+29
2.4
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.70.7
-
3ChornomoretsChornomorets2962
62%
2.1
4120+21
2.1
62%
34%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2221.40.7
-
4Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk3053
53%
1.8
3628+8
2.1
53%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.20.9
-
5InhuletsInhulets3046
40%
1.5
4132+9
2.4
70%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.1
-
6Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv3037
33%
1.2
3135-4
2.2
73%
43%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.01.2
-
7Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka3036
33%
1.2
3738-1
2.5
77%
53%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.3
-
8Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'3036
30%
1.2
3132-1
2.1
70%
33%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.1
-
9Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka3036
33%
1.2
2937-8
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.2
-
10UCSAUCSA3036
33%
1.2
3040-10
2.3
70%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.3
-
11PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2934
28%
1.2
3033-3
2.2
72%
41%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.1
-
12Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2934
28%
1.2
2431-7
1.9
59%
34%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.1
-
13ChernihivChernihiv3031
27%
1.0
3036-6
2.2
67%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.2
-
14Vorskla PoltavaVorskla Poltava3030
23%
1.0
2336-13
2.0
73%
20%
3%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
15Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi2921
14%
0.7
2042-22
2.1
72%
34%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
16Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya3019
13%
0.6
1661-45
2.6
70%
57%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
17Polissya IIPolissya II00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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