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Yeovil vs Aldershot Result & Analysis

Date: 15/04/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Yeovil
Yeovil
Vs
49%
28%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Referee: S Copeland
Match preview & prediction

Yeovil are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, 28% for a draw and 23% for an Aldershot victory. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% probability. Yeovil, playing at home against a similar-strength side, average 1.33 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Aldershot, on the road, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 93.6%, Under 4.5 cards at 85.0%, Under 3.5 at 75.3% and Over 1.5 at 72.9%. Yeovil’s recent form shows a three-game winning streak, whereas Aldershot has just drawn, hinting at a slight edge for the home side. The match is likely to feature a tight 1-1 outcome, with Yeovil’s defensive solidity giving them a better chance to secure the win.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Aldershot snatched a 2-0 win, ending Yeovil’s three-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite was a Home win at 49 percent, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed an Away win. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 5.5 cards at 93.6 percent, Under 4.5 cards at 85.0 percent, Under 3.5 at 75.3 percent, and Over 1.5 at 72.9 percent. Yeovil’s recent form had them on a winning run, while Aldershot had come off a draw. The match delivered a clear reversal of expectations, with the away side securing the victory.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Yeovil win✗ Miss
48.6%
Avg Implied 48.5% · @ 1.91
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.45
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win✓ Hit
23.3%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.75
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

YeovilYeovil

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L11D03L02L20W21W20W22D22DA·MAI22/02A·CHE26/02A·NOT05/03H·DAG08/03H·GRI12/03A·DOV19/03H·BRO22/03H·SOU26/03A·BAR02/04A·KIN09/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.101.001.141.001.06
vs Stronger (17)0.881.410.751.621.001.22
vs Similar (13)1.150.691.330.501.000.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L13L00D14L02L03L04L01L02L21WH·BAR05/02A·GRI12/02H·DOV22/02A·WRE26/02H·STO05/03H·KIN19/03A·TOR22/03A·ALT26/03H·EAS02/04H·BOR09/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.630.811.751.071.50
vs Stronger (20)0.751.850.912.000.561.67
vs Similar (10)1.301.200.601.202.001.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.2%
@ 2.03+0.3%
Under 2.5
53.8%
@ 1.72-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.8%
Yeovil goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
01234
09.3%6.7%3.9%1.3%0.3%
111%13%6.0%2.0%0.5%
29.4%9.3%4.6%1.5%0.4%
34.8%4.8%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.8%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Yeovil goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Yeovil is 0.36 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 0.98).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Yeovil is 0.07 goals worse than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (0.98 vs 1.05).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Yeovil is 0.61 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 1.66).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

YeovilYeovil

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D02L01L10W11D20W11D12LA·MAI22/02A·CHE26/02A·NOT05/03H·DAG08/03H·GRI12/03A·DOV19/03H·BRO22/03H·SOU26/03A·BAR02/04A·KIN09/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.500.500.500.62
vs Stronger (17)0.470.650.380.750.560.56
vs Similar (13)0.540.460.670.170.430.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L00D01L02L01L03L00D02L10WH·BAR05/02A·GRI12/02H·DOV22/02A·WRE26/02H·STO05/03H·KIN19/03A·TOR22/03A·ALT26/03H·EAS02/04H·BOR09/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.900.441.000.070.79
vs Stronger (20)0.251.050.451.090.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.300.600.400.800.200.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Yeovil over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yeovil over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yeovil over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

YeovilYeovil

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D11D01L01L10W10W00D11D10WA·MAI22/02A·CHE26/02A·NOT05/03H·DAG08/03H·GRI12/03A·DOV19/03H·BRO22/03H·SOU26/03A·BAR02/04A·KIN09/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.500.640.500.44
vs Stronger (17)0.410.760.380.880.440.67
vs Similar (13)0.620.230.670.330.570.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D00D13L00D02L01L01L00D11DH·BAR05/02A·GRI12/02H·DOV22/02A·WRE26/02H·STO05/03H·KIN19/03A·TOR22/03A·ALT26/03H·EAS02/04H·BOR09/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.380.751.000.71
vs Stronger (20)0.500.800.450.910.560.67
vs Similar (10)1.000.600.200.401.800.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Yeovil over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yeovil over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yeovil over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards93.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards85.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
Yeovil and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Yeovil and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Yeovil and Aldershot have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
Yeovil and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
YEO wins
0
Draws
1
ALD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Yeovil vs Aldershot · H/A from YEO
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/21AAldershot Vs YEO1-2
11/05/21AAldershot Vs YEO2-0
28/12/20HYEO Vs Aldershot3-0

YeovilYeovil

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/22AKing’s Lynn Vs YEO2-2
02/04/22ABarnet Vs YEO2-2
26/03/22HYEO Vs Southend2-0
22/03/22HYEO Vs Bromley2-1
19/03/22ADover Athletic Vs YEO0-2
12/03/22HYEO Vs Grimsby0-2
08/03/22HYEO Vs Dag and Red0-3
05/03/22ANotts County Vs YEO1-1
26/02/22AChesterfield Vs YEO1-0
22/02/22AMaidenhead Vs YEO1-1

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/22HALD Vs Boreham Wood2-1
02/04/22HALD Vs Eastleigh0-2
26/03/22AAltrincham Vs ALD1-0
22/03/22ATorquay Vs ALD4-0
19/03/22HALD Vs King’s Lynn0-3
05/03/22HALD Vs Stockport0-2
26/02/22AWrexham Vs ALD4-1
22/02/22HALD Vs Dover Athletic0-0
12/02/22AGrimsby Vs ALD3-1
05/02/22HALD Vs Barnet1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Yeovil
Yeovil
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDD1.34
HomeDLLWW1.42
AwayLDWDD1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%33%
AVG goals2.362.152.58
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %14%12%17%
Scored1.121.081.17
Conceded1.241.081.42
BTTS44%42%46%
Clean Sheet34%35%33%
Corners---
Cards4.324.124.54
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.02
HomeDLLLW0.81
AwayWLLLL1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%19%38%
AVG goals2.862.733.00
Over 1.5 %78%88%67%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %34%27%42%
Scored1.160.961.38
Conceded1.701.771.62
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet22%15%29%
Corners---
Cards4.104.124.08

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red
4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay
4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead
4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn
4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth
4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic
4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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