York’s recent form shows a dip after a 2-3 loss to Cheltenham, while Barnet arrives on a draw after a 1-1 stalemate with Exeter. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2% probability. The model favours an away win, giving Barnet a 48% chance, York 27%, and a draw 25%. York averages 1.17 goals for and 1.17 against at home against stronger opposition, whereas Barnet scores 1.5 and concedes 1.25 on the road versus weaker sides. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 83.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.5%, and Under 5.5 cards at 72.0%. The model’s selection for the match result is an away win.
Results analysis
York’s recent form has slipped, with a loss to Cheltenham leaving them on a shaky run, while Barnet, fresh from a draw, had been on a better run. The match finished 2-4 in favour of Barnet, confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which it had given a 48% probability. The total goals, 6, far exceeded the expected 3.2 and the most likely 3, showing the game was much higher scoring than predicted. The model’s selections were: Over 1.5 (83.7% chance) hit, Over 2.5 cards (81.5% chance) missed, and Under 5.5 cards (72% chance) hit. All figures appear only once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
York win✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 2.99
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.47
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barnet win✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.17
Edge
+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
York
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.70
1.33
1.53
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (15)
1.33
1.67
1.17
1.17
1.44
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.73
1.44
1.78
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.27
1.67
1.20
1.27
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.55
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (18)
1.89
1.17
2.20
1.10
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
@ 1.69+6.7%
Under 2.5
38.2%
@ 2.07-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
7.0%
2-1
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
5.8%
0-0
5.1%
York goals ↓
Barnet goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
6.6%
7.0%
4.3%
2.0%
1
4.5%
11%
9.4%
5.8%
2.7%
2
3.7%
6.8%
6.3%
3.9%
1.8%
3
1.7%
3.1%
2.8%
1.7%
0.8%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = York goals (down), columns = Barnet goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
York is 0.72 points worse than Barnet in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Southend
1.52
Hartlepool
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
York is 0.78 goals worse than Barnet in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.98).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
York is 0.20 goals worse than Barnet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
York is 11.4 percentage points worse than Barnet in terms of average possession (45% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
York
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.67
0.47
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.56
1.11
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.80
0.27
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.36
0.75
0.50
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.39
0.90
0.20
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
York over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
York over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
York over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
York
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.67
1.07
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
0.87
0.50
0.83
0.89
0.89
vs Similar (15)
0.67
1.27
0.78
1.22
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.87
0.93
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.18
0.00
1.25
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (18)
1.06
0.78
1.30
0.90
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
York over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
York over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
York over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnet over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
York · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Newby67%
Ollie Banks0%
Alex Hunt0%
Morgan Williams0%
Ollie Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Morgan Williams33%
Alfie McNally33%
Ollie Banks0%
Alex Hunt0%
Alex Newby0%
Ollie Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
Joe Felix0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ollie Banks0%
Alex Hunt0%
Morgan Williams0%
Alex Newby0%
Ollie Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alex Newby67%
Ollie Banks0%
Alex Hunt0%
Morgan Williams0%
Ollie Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Barnet · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Charlie Lakin67%
Kabongo Tshimanga67%
Tom Knowles33%
Idris Kanu0%
Nnamdi Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
Adam Senior0%
Danny Collinge0%
Matthew Cox0%
Zac Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Kanu33%
Matthew Cox33%
Zac Williams33%
Tom Knowles0%
Nnamdi Ofoborh0%
Charlie Lakin0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
Kabongo Tshimanga0%
Adam Senior0%
Danny Collinge0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kabongo Tshimanga67%
Charlie Lakin33%
Tom Knowles0%
Idris Kanu0%
Nnamdi Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
Adam Senior0%
Danny Collinge0%
Matthew Cox0%
Zac Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charlie Lakin33%
Tom Knowles0%
Idris Kanu0%
Nnamdi Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
Kabongo Tshimanga0%
Adam Senior0%
Danny Collinge0%
Matthew Cox0%
Zac Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
York's squad is €3m less valuable than Barnet's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
York and Barnet have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
York and Barnet have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
York's defence is €2m less valuable than Barnet's (€1m vs €3m).
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Chesterfield
Bromley
Altrincham
Solihull
Southend
Gateshead
Halifax
Aldershot
Oldham
Rochdale
Hartlepool
Eastleigh
Wealdstone
Woking
Boreham Wood