York’s unbeaten run in the last five games, capped by a 1-1 draw against Rotherham, gives them a solid home edge, while Exeter’s recent win over Accrington keeps them fighting. The model sees a 61 % chance of a York victory, 22 % for a draw and 17 % for Exeter, making a home win the most likely outcome. The average number of goals is 3.2, with the most probable total being three goals at 22 %. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, with a 10.2 % probability. York’s home form shows they average three goals scored and two conceded against stronger opponents, whereas Exeter’s away form shows a modest scoring rate and a higher concession rate versus this tier. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8 % with a 2 % edge), Under 6.5 (95.7 %), Home +2 handicap (93.6 % with a 5 % edge), Away under 2.5 goals (91.0 % with a 1 % edge), Under 5.5 (89.7 %), Home over 0.5 goals (88.1 % with a 9 % edge) and Under 5.5 cards (83.9 %).
Results analysis
York’s recent win over Exeter extended their winning run, and the Pythia model’s prediction of a home victory proved correct, with a 61% probability. The final score was 2-1, confirming the model’s pick and the expected total of 3 goals. The model’s selections performed admirably: Under 7.5 hit, Away under 3.5 goals hit, Under 6.5 hit, Home +2 handicap hit, Away under 2.5 goals hit, Under 5.5 hit, Home over 0.5 goals hit, and Over 1.5 hit. Each hit carried a high probability - 98.4%, 97.8%, 95.7%, 93.6%, 91.0%, 89.7%, 88.1%, and 83.6% respectively - showing the model’s selections largely came through.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
York win✓ Hit
61.0%
Avg Implied 55.9% · @ 1.66
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Draw✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.82
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.15
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
BetVictor
3.90
Betfair
3.90
Exeter win✗ Miss
16.9%
Avg Implied 19.8% · @ 4.69
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.00
Pinnacle
4.94
Dafabet
4.80
Unibet
4.75
Betfair
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
York
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
0.87
2.80
0.93
1.93
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
2.50
0.69
3.00
0.77
2.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.80
1.14
1.50
1.12
2.06
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
3.33
1.25
3.00
1.00
3.60
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.14
1.10
0.90
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
@ 1.24+8.4%
Under 1.5
16.4%
@ 3.74-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.03
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.6%
@ 1.80+9.5%
Under 2.5
38.4%
@ 1.96-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.96
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.3%
@ 2.97+8.0%
Under 3.5
60.7%
@ 1.35-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.3%
@ 1.76+5.7%
No
41.7%
@ 1.96-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.75
No
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 6.80+3.7%
2-1 ✓
9.9%@ 7.37+3.9%
2-0
9.4%@ 7.60+3.6%
1-0
7.9%@ 6.75+1.3%
3-1
7.0%@ 12.08+3.3%
3-0
6.7%@ 12.32+3.1%
2-2
5.2%@ 13.81+2.0%
0-0
5.1%@ 10.61+0.9%
York goals ↓
Exeter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.4%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.9%
10%
4.9%
1.7%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.7%
7.0%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.5%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = York goals (down), columns = Exeter goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
York is 0.92 points worse than Exeter in terms of average points per game (0.66 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
York is 0.86 goals worse than Exeter in terms of goals scored per game (0.61 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
York is 1.58 goals worse than Exeter in terms of goals conceded per game (2.70 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
York
For 7.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 10.3 · Total 18.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Exeter
For 5.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 10.2 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
York
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
11.0
14.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
18.3
19.5
16.0
vs Stronger (6)
12.0
11.0
14.0
3.3
4.0
2.7
18.3
19.5
16.0
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
3.8
3.7
3.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
50%
100%
50%
46%
54%
0%
0%
0%
% under line
33%
50%
0%
50%
54%
46%
100%
100%
100%
This opponent (Exeter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.2
3.3
3.0
3.5
22.0
22.2
21.7
vs Stronger (12)
9.2
8.4
9.9
3.2
2.6
3.6
21.5
21.4
21.6
vs Similar (37)
10.5
10.6
10.3
3.4
3.1
3.7
22.1
22.4
21.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
65%
48%
50%
42%
58%
58%
52%
64%
% under line
44%
35%
52%
50%
58%
42%
42%
48%
36%
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.0%
@ 1.53-2.3%
Under 9.5
42.0%
@ 2.33+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.66
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Superbet
2.32
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 3.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
55.5%
Under 21.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
York or Draw✓ Hit
83.1%
Avg Implied 79.9% · @ 1.16
Edge
+3.1%
61%
22%
17%
covers York + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
10Bet
1.18
York or Exeter✓ Hit
78.0%
Avg Implied 76.1% · @ 1.22
Edge
+1.9%
61%
22%
17%
covers York + Exeter
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Draw or Exeter✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied 44.0% · @ 2.11
Edge
-5.0%
61%
22%
17%
covers Draw + Exeter
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Bet365
2.15
Betfair
2.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
York over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.1%
@ 1.13+6.1%
Under
11.9%
@ 5.17-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.45
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.10
York over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
62.7%
@ 1.72+8.7%
Under
37.3%
@ 2.02-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
BetVictor
2.05
Superbet
2.02
York over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
35.8%
@ 3.25+7.2%
Under
64.2%
@ 1.30-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
York over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
16.7%
@ 7.70+4.5%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.07-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Exeter over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.1%
@ 1.51+3.6%
Under
34.9%
@ 2.42-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.56
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Exeter over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.4%
@ 3.54+2.1%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.26-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.85
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Exeter over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 9.45-0.8%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.03+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.60
Superbet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Exeter over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 23.50-1.9%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to York, so a minus line means York give that many goals of a start and Exeter receive them. At -1, York must win by two or more to land; a one-goal York win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (York)Actual: Exeter
York -2
20.0%
@ 5.53+3.8%
Draw -2
18.7%
@ 4.68-0.4%
Exeter +2
61.3%
@ 1.38-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Unibet
5.20
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Handicap -1 (York)Actual: Draw
York -1
38.7%
@ 2.74+6.2%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 3.48-3.3%
Exeter +1
39.0%
@ 2.13-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.85
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.68
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Unibet
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Handicap +1 (York)Actual: York
York +1
83.1%
@ 1.17+6.9%
Draw +1
10.6%
@ 5.88-4.5%
Exeter -1
6.4%
@ 10.18-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
9.80
10Bet
9.50
Handicap +2 (York)Actual: York
York +2
93.6%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Draw +2
4.6%
@ 14.00-2.1%
Exeter -2
1.8%
@ 30.33-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
13.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
York
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
1.47
0.47
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.19
0.35
1.69
0.38
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.83
0.29
0.64
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.33
0.25
1.25
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.62
0.30
0.40
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.66
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.60
Under
William Hil
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Betano
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
York over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Unibet
2.08
York over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.40
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
York over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Exeter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.77
Betano
2.65
Superbet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Exeter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Exeter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
York
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.47
1.33
0.47
1.20
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
1.31
0.35
1.31
0.38
1.31
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.86
0.86
0.75
1.06
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
2.00
1.00
1.75
0.80
2.20
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.52
0.80
0.50
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betano
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Under
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
York over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
York over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.26
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
York over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Exeter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
Exeter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Exeter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
83.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
83.1%
1.16
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.1%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-5.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.0%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
1.31
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-0.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
York
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Newby50%
O. Pearce25%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
J. King0%
Joe Grey0%
H. Boyes0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Z. Medley33%
Ryan Fallowfield33%
Alfie McNally33%
M. Williams25%
Ollie Banks0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
A. Newby0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
H. Boyes0%
Joe Felix0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. Boyes100%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
A. Newby0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Newby50%
H. Boyes33%
Joe Grey25%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Exeter
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Fitzwater50%
Reece Cole25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charlie Cummins50%
Vincent Harper33%
Reece Cole25%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Fitzwater25%
Josh Gordon25%
Ethan Sutherland25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
E. James0%
George Birch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Oluwabori33%
Gwion Edwards25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Reece Cole0%
J. Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reece Cole25%
Josh Gordon25%
J. Doyle-Hayes0%
Gwion Edwards0%
J. Fitzwater0%
T. Perry0%
J. Bycroft0%
Vincent Harper0%
Sonny Cox0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
E. James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
York's squad is €2m less valuable than Exeter's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
York and Exeter have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
York and Exeter have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
York and Exeter have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale