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Zabbar St. Patrick vs Floriana Prediction & Stats

Date: 24/10/2026
Time: 16:00
Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Vs
20%
30%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Zabbar St. Patrick’s defensive record is stark: they average 2.0 goals conceded at home against stronger opposition, while scoring only 0.5. Floriana, on the road to weaker teams, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.29 conceded, a sharp contrast that underpins the model’s pick of an away win. The expected total is 2.2 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-1, a 14.5% chance, reflecting Floriana’s edge.

Home win probability stands at 19%, a draw at 29%, and the away win at 52%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.6%), Away +2 handicap (94.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.0%), and Under 4.5 (92.4%). All selections carry the stated probabilities, with no additional commentary.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zabbar St. Patrick win
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win
50.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L33D11D30W11D00D24L10W11DA·BIR11/04A·MOS15/04A·TAR19/04H·SLI26/04H·HIB30/04H·TAR05/05H·TAR10/05A·VAL16/08H·BIR22/08A·HIB28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.331.251.331.281.33
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.502.000.000.50
vs Similar (26)1.421.351.401.201.441.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W20W14L10W00D21W30W20W11D41WA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.801.831.001.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.191.001.401.200.830.67
vs Weaker (14)2.290.572.380.752.170.33
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.3%
Under 2.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.5%
Under 3.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.2%
No
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.1%
1-1
13.6%
0-0
12.1%
0-2
10.9%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.5%
0-3
5.1%
2-1
5.0%
Zabbar St. Patrick goals ↓
Floriana goals →
01234
012%14%11%5.1%1.8%
17.5%14%8.8%4.1%1.5%
23.5%5.0%3.5%1.7%0.6%
30.9%1.3%1.0%0.4%0.2%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zabbar St. Patrick goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Zabbar St. Patrick is 1.21 points worse than Floriana in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.32 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.50 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zabbar St. Patrick or Draw
49.9%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Zabbar St. Patrick + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick or Floriana
70.3%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Zabbar St. Patrick + Floriana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Floriana
79.8%
Avg Implied -
20%
30%
50%
covers Draw + Floriana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Zabbar St. Patrick, so a minus line means Zabbar St. Patrick give that many goals of a start and Floriana receive them. At -1, Zabbar St. Patrick must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zabbar St. Patrick win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick -2
1.5%
Draw -2
5.1%
Floriana +2
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick -1
6.6%
Draw -1
13.5%
Floriana +1
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick +1
49.9%
Draw +1
24.7%
Floriana -1
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick +2
74.6%
Draw +2
15.6%
Floriana -2
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L21W11D20W00D00D21W00D01LA·BIR11/04A·MOS15/04A·TAR19/04H·SLI26/04H·HIB30/04H·TAR05/05H·TAR10/05A·VAL16/08H·BIR22/08A·HIB28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.580.750.610.39
vs Stronger (4)0.250.500.501.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)0.650.540.600.700.690.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D11D10W00D01L10W10W01L00DA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.430.720.500.750.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.380.800.400.500.33
vs Weaker (14)0.790.500.620.621.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D12L00D10W11D00D03L10W10WA·BIR11/04A·MOS15/04A·TAR19/04H·SLI26/04H·HIB30/04H·TAR05/05H·TAR10/05A·VAL16/08H·BIR22/08A·HIB28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.800.670.580.670.94
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (26)0.770.810.800.500.751.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W03L00D00D20W20W10W10W41WA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.371.110.500.750.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.620.600.800.330.33
vs Weaker (14)1.500.071.750.121.170.00
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.8%-------
Under 6.599.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals99.1%-------
Under 5.597.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals95.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.5%-------
Away +2 handicap93.4%-------
Under 4.592.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals83.0%-------
Under 3.581.5%-------
Home under 1.5 goals80.6%-------
Draw or Away79.8%-------
Away +1 handicap79.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals75.7%-------
Home +2 handicap74.6%-------
Home or Away70.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Floriana have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Floriana have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Floriana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Floriana have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
ZSP wins
0
Draws
4
FLO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Floriana · H/A from ZSP
DateH/AGameScore
01/02/26HZSP Vs Floriana0-3
24/09/25AFloriana Vs ZSP3-1
02/02/25AFloriana Vs ZSP1-0
28/08/24HZSP Vs Floriana0-3

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AHibernians Vs ZSP1-1
22/08/26HZSP Vs Birzebbuga1-0
16/08/26AValletta FC Vs ZSP4-2
10/05/26HZSP Vs Tarxien Rainbows0-0
05/05/26HZSP Vs Tarxien Rainbows1-1
30/04/26HZSP Vs Hibernians3-0
26/04/26HZSP Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
19/04/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs ZSP3-3
15/04/26AMosta Vs ZSP2-1
11/04/26ABirkirkara Vs ZSP1-0

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HFLO Vs Gzira United4-1
29/08/26AHamrun Spartans Vs FLO1-1
21/08/26HFLO Vs Sliema Wanderers2-0
14/08/26ABirzebbuga Vs FLO0-3
16/05/26HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
09/05/26AValletta FC Vs FLO0-0
30/04/26AGzira United Vs FLO0-1
25/04/26HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans1-4
18/04/26HFLO Vs Valletta FC2-0
15/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWD1.06
HomeDWDDW1.15
AwayLLDLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%27%17%
AVG goals2.602.622.58
Over 1.5 %80%81%79%
Over 2.5 %46%54%38%
Over 3.5 %20%19%21%
Scored1.301.311.29
Conceded1.301.311.29
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet26%31%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.08
HomeWLWWW1.93
AwayWWDWD2.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%55%67%
AVG goals2.502.552.43
Over 1.5 %76%86%62%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %26%24%29%
Scored1.641.591.71
Conceded0.860.970.71
BTTS52%55%48%
Clean Sheet42%34%52%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana410
75%
2.5
102+8
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Valletta FCValletta FC49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3MostaMosta39
100%
3.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.3
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.30.7
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara36
67%
2.0
51+4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.70.3
-
6Balzan FCBalzan FC34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.3
-
7Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick34
33%
1.3
45-1
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.7
-
8HiberniansHibernians44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2130.81.0
-
9Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers33
33%
1.0
25-3
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.71.7
-
10Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1310.31.3
-
11BirzebbugaBirzebbuga30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1210.32.0
-
12Gzira UnitedGzira United40
0%
0.0
213-11
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.53.2
-
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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