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Zabbar St. Patrick vs Gzira United Result & Analysis

Date: 28/09/2025
Time: 09:00
Final 2-0
Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Vs
42%
29%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Zabbar St. Patrick win✓ Hit
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United win✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L22D20W22D12L22D11D01L11D13LH·GZI11/04H·BAL19/04H·MEL28/04H·HIB01/05H·SLI16/08H·HIB24/08H·NAX13/09H·HAM16/09A·TAR20/09A·FLO24/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.431.381.311.501.57
vs Stronger (6)0.501.330.501.000.502.00
vs Similar (24)1.671.461.671.421.671.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W21W02L22D35L00D11D02L00D02LA·ZAB11/04A·HIB19/04H·NAX28/04H·MEL03/05A·HIB18/08A·BIR23/08A·FLO12/09A·MAR17/09A·HAM20/09A·SLI24/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.370.881.350.921.38
vs Stronger (7)0.571.140.502.500.600.60
vs Similar (23)1.001.430.931.201.121.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.7%
2-0 ✓
7.5%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
5.2%
Zabbar St. Patrick goals ↓
Gzira United goals →
01234
08.7%7.5%5.1%2.0%0.6%
19.3%14%7.3%2.9%0.8%
27.5%8.9%5.2%2.0%0.6%
33.6%4.2%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.3%1.5%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zabbar St. Patrick goals (down), columns = Gzira United goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.37 points worse than Gzira United in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.34).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.05 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.19).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.02 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.34).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W10W20W12L11D11D01L10W01LH·GZI11/04H·BAL19/04H·MEL28/04H·HIB01/05H·SLI16/08H·HIB24/08H·NAX13/09H·HAM16/09A·TAR20/09A·FLO24/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.750.620.500.71
vs Stronger (6)0.331.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.710.580.830.500.580.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L01L12L11D00D11D02L00D01LA·ZAB11/04A·HIB19/04H·NAX28/04H·MEL03/05A·HIB18/08A·BIR23/08A·FLO12/09A·MAR17/09A·HAM20/09A·SLI24/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.630.290.590.460.69
vs Stronger (7)0.290.570.001.000.400.40
vs Similar (23)0.390.650.330.530.500.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L10W02L00D11D00D00D01L12LH·GZI11/04H·BAL19/04H·MEL28/04H·HIB01/05H·SLI16/08H·HIB24/08H·NAX13/09H·HAM16/09A·TAR20/09A·FLO24/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.770.620.691.000.86
vs Stronger (6)0.170.330.000.000.501.00
vs Similar (24)0.960.880.830.921.080.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W01L10W24L00D00D00D00D01LA·ZAB11/04A·HIB19/04H·NAX28/04H·MEL03/05A·HIB18/08A·BIR23/08A·FLO12/09A·MAR17/09A·HAM20/09A·SLI24/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.730.590.760.460.69
vs Stronger (7)0.290.570.501.500.200.20
vs Similar (23)0.610.780.600.670.621.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick's squad is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Gzira United have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Gzira United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick's defence is €1m more valuable than Gzira United's (€2m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
ZSP wins
0
Draws
3
GU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Gzira United · H/A from ZSP
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/25HZSP Vs Gzira United1-2
13/03/25HZSP Vs Gzira United3-0
24/11/24AGzira United Vs ZSP2-1
02/11/24AGzira United Vs ZSP3-1

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/25AFloriana Vs ZSP3-1
20/09/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs ZSP1-1
16/09/25HZSP Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
13/09/25HZSP Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
24/08/25HZSP Vs Hibernians2-2
16/08/25HZSP Vs Sliema Wanderers1-2
01/05/25HZSP Vs Hibernians2-2
28/04/25HZSP Vs Melita2-0
19/04/25HZSP Vs Balzan FC2-2
11/04/25HZSP Vs Gzira United1-2

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/25ASliema Wanderers Vs GU2-0
20/09/25AHamrun Spartans Vs GU0-0
17/09/25AMarsaxlokk Vs GU2-0
12/09/25AFloriana Vs GU1-1
23/08/25ABirkirkara Vs GU0-0
18/08/25AHibernians Vs GU5-3
03/05/25HGU Vs Melita2-2
28/04/25HGU Vs Naxxar Lions0-2
19/04/25AHibernians Vs GU1-2
11/04/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs GU1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDL1.22
HomeDLDDL1.26
AwayWDDDL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%33%30%
AVG goals2.842.782.91
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %56%56%57%
Over 3.5 %34%26%43%
Scored1.401.371.43
Conceded1.441.411.48
BTTS58%52%65%
Clean Sheet26%30%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDL1.28
HomeLDDLD1.27
AwayDDLDL1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%31%33%
AVG goals2.342.272.42
Over 1.5 %70%69%71%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %20%23%17%
Scored1.101.081.12
Conceded1.241.191.29
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet28%27%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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