The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Hamrun Spartans, a 30% chance of a draw and a 26% chance for Zabbar St. Patrick. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.3% probability. Zabbar, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 2.0, while Hamrun, on the road against a weaker opponent, scores 1.0 and concedes 1.2. The model’s selections include a near-certain Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (97.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.4%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%). These picks reflect the low-scoring nature of the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zabbar St. Patrick win
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans win
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zabbar St. Patrick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.25
1.33
1.28
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.35
1.40
1.20
1.44
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.76
0.76
1.15
1.23
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.75
0.88
2.25
0.50
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
1.00
1.50
0.88
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.2%
Under 2.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
11.9%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
8.7%
0-2
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
4.9%
Zabbar St. Patrick goals ↓
Hamrun Spartans goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
8.6%
3.8%
1.2%
1
8.7%
14%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
2
4.9%
6.4%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.6%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zabbar St. Patrick goals (down), columns = Hamrun Spartans goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.97 points worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.38 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.68 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 0.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zabbar St. Patrick or Draw
57.4%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
43%
covers Zabbar St. Patrick + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick or Hamrun Spartans
69.4%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
43%
covers Zabbar St. Patrick + Hamrun Spartans
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hamrun Spartans
73.2%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
43%
covers Draw + Hamrun Spartans
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5
Over
72.9%
Under
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zabbar St. Patrick, so a minus line means Zabbar St. Patrick give that many goals of a start and Hamrun Spartans receive them. At -1, Zabbar St. Patrick must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zabbar St. Patrick win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick -2
2.8%
Draw -2
7.4%
Hamrun Spartans +2
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick -1
10.2%
Draw -1
16.6%
Hamrun Spartans +1
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick +1
57.4%
Draw +1
22.4%
Hamrun Spartans -1
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick +2
79.8%
Draw +2
13.0%
Hamrun Spartans -2
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zabbar St. Patrick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.58
0.75
0.61
0.39
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.54
0.60
0.70
0.69
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.65
0.29
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.54
0.75
0.38
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.6%
Under 0.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.9%
Under 1.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.5%
Under 2.5
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zabbar St. Patrick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.58
0.67
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.81
0.80
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.12
0.47
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.50
1.62
0.25
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.46
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.9%
Under 1.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.0%
Under 2.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.1%
Under
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamrun Spartans · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Semir Smajlagić20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ante Ćorić17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ederson40%
Joseph Mbong40%
Vincenzo Polito40%
Matias Garcia25%
Emerson20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ognjen Bjeličić17%
Henry Bonello17%
Jovan Čađenović17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jovan Čađenović17%
Rafael Compri17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N'Dri Koffi50%
Matias Garcia25%
Ederson20%
Semir Smajlagić20%
Serigne Saliou Thioune20%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Zabbar St. Patrick's squad is €1m less valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Hamrun Spartans have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick's midfield is €2m less valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick's defence is €1m more valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€2m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
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Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Birzebbuga
Gzira United