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Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk Result & Analysis

Date: 07/02/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 1-2
Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Vs
25%
28%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Zabbar St. Patrick win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win✓ Hit
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D11D33D12L20W01L12L03L12LA·VAL02/11H·TAR24/11A·MOS12/12A·HIB18/12H·NAX08/01A·GZI11/01A·SLI16/01A·NAX23/01H·FLO01/02A·HIB04/02
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.431.291.531.151.31
vs Stronger (5)0.402.000.332.000.502.00
vs Similar (25)1.401.321.501.431.271.18
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D12L31W01L00D21W03L21W10W11DA·HIB01/11A·FLO23/11A·HAM14/12A·VAL20/12A·SLI06/01H·BIR11/01A·GZI18/01H·TAR25/01A·BIR31/01H·SLI03/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.931.270.911.370.95
vs Stronger (11)1.001.180.801.401.171.00
vs Similar (19)1.530.791.670.501.460.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.9%
Under 2.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
10.5%
1-2 ✓
9.2%
0-0
9.0%
0-2
8.8%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
4.8%
Zabbar St. Patrick goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
01234
09.0%10%8.8%4.4%1.6%
17.0%14%9.2%4.6%1.7%
24.3%6.5%4.8%2.4%0.9%
31.5%2.3%1.7%0.8%0.3%
40.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zabbar St. Patrick goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.71 points worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.68).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.06 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.29).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.18 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.15).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W31W02L20W00D00D01L01LA·VAL02/11H·TAR24/11A·MOS12/12A·HIB18/12H·NAX08/01A·GZI11/01A·SLI16/01A·NAX23/01H·FLO01/02A·HIB04/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.570.710.710.620.38
vs Stronger (5)0.201.000.331.330.000.50
vs Similar (25)0.760.480.790.570.730.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L12L21W00D00D11D02L10W00D10WA·HIB01/11A·FLO23/11A·HAM14/12A·VAL20/12A·SLI06/01H·BIR11/01A·GZI18/01H·TAR25/01A·BIR31/01H·SLI03/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.530.550.450.370.58
vs Stronger (11)0.360.640.200.600.500.67
vs Similar (19)0.470.470.830.330.310.54
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L01L02L10W00D01L12L02L11DA·VAL02/11H·TAR24/11A·MOS12/12A·HIB18/12H·NAX08/01A·GZI11/01A·SLI16/01A·NAX23/01H·FLO01/02A·HIB04/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.870.590.820.540.92
vs Stronger (5)0.201.000.000.670.501.50
vs Similar (25)0.640.840.710.860.550.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W01L00D10W01L11D10W01LA·HIB01/11A·FLO23/11A·HAM14/12A·VAL20/12A·SLI06/01H·BIR11/01A·GZI18/01H·TAR25/01A·BIR31/01H·SLI03/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.400.730.451.000.37
vs Stronger (11)0.640.550.600.800.670.33
vs Similar (19)1.050.320.830.171.150.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick's defence is €2m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€2m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
ZSP wins
1
Draws
3
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Marsaxlokk · H/A from ZSP
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/25AMarsaxlokk Vs ZSP1-0
19/01/25AMarsaxlokk Vs ZSP3-1
22/12/24AMarsaxlokk Vs ZSP2-2
02/10/24HZSP Vs Marsaxlokk1-3

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/02/26AHibernians Vs ZSP2-1
01/02/26HZSP Vs Floriana0-3
23/01/26ANaxxar Lions Vs ZSP2-1
16/01/26ASliema Wanderers Vs ZSP1-0
11/01/26AGzira United Vs ZSP0-2
08/01/26HZSP Vs Naxxar Lions1-2
18/12/25AHibernians Vs ZSP3-3
12/12/25AMosta Vs ZSP1-1
24/11/25HZSP Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-2
02/11/25AValletta FC Vs ZSP0-2

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/02/26HMAR Vs Sliema Wanderers1-1
31/01/26ABirkirkara Vs MAR0-1
25/01/26HMAR Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-1
18/01/26AGzira United Vs MAR3-0
11/01/26HMAR Vs Birkirkara2-1
06/01/26ASliema Wanderers Vs MAR0-0
20/12/25AValletta FC Vs MAR1-0
14/12/25AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR1-3
23/11/25AFloriana Vs MAR2-1
01/11/25AHibernians Vs MAR2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.04
HomeWLDLL0.96
AwayDWLLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals2.842.922.76
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %58%68%48%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.321.281.36
Conceded1.521.641.40
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.58
HomeDWWWD1.50
AwayWLDLW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%41%46%
AVG goals2.542.732.39
Over 1.5 %72%82%64%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %26%23%29%
Scored1.401.321.46
Conceded1.141.410.93
BTTS56%68%46%
Clean Sheet30%14%43%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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