The match between Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home form shows a 34% chance of victory, a 30% draw probability and a 36% chance of Marsaxlokk taking the win. The average goals expected is 2.4, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 27% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance. Zabbar’s home record against similar opposition yields 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Marsaxlokk’s away performance against similar teams averages 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 5.5 (96.5%), Under 4.5 (90.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.5%) and Away under 2.5 goals (87.7%). Both sides have been in recent form: Zabbar comes off a draw, Marsaxlokk on a two-game winning streak. The model’s selection remains the away win, with the other picks offering a range of low-goal outcomes.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zabbar St. Patrick win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zabbar St. Patrick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.25
1.33
1.28
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.35
1.40
1.20
1.44
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.57
1.07
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.36
1.50
1.75
0.86
1.14
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.95
1.60
0.80
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.5%
0-1
9.8%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
Zabbar St. Patrick goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.8%
6.7%
2.7%
0.8%
1
9.5%
14%
7.9%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.3%
7.7%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zabbar St. Patrick goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.71 points worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.06 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.18 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zabbar St. Patrick or Draw
64.3%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Zabbar St. Patrick + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick or Marsaxlokk
69.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Zabbar St. Patrick + Marsaxlokk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Marsaxlokk
66.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Draw + Marsaxlokk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zabbar St. Patrick, so a minus line means Zabbar St. Patrick give that many goals of a start and Marsaxlokk receive them. At -1, Zabbar St. Patrick must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zabbar St. Patrick win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick -2
4.7%
Draw -2
10.0%
Marsaxlokk +2
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick -1
14.7%
Draw -1
19.2%
Marsaxlokk +1
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick +1
64.3%
Draw +1
19.9%
Marsaxlokk -1
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick +2
84.2%
Draw +2
10.6%
Marsaxlokk -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zabbar St. Patrick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.58
0.75
0.61
0.39
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.54
0.60
0.70
0.69
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
1.25
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.47
0.80
0.30
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zabbar St. Patrick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.58
0.67
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.81
0.80
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.25
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.47
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Marsaxlokk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick's defence is €2m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€2m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United