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Zabbar St. Patrick vs Sliema Wanderers Result & Analysis

Date: 26/04/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-1
Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Vs
29%
28%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Zabbar St. Patrick a 29% win probability against Sliema Wanderers in the Malta: Premier League on 2026-04-26, with 28% for the draw and 44% for Sliema Wanderers. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (77%), Under 3.5 (70%).

Results analysis

Zabbar St. Patrick finished 1-1 against Sliema Wanderers (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 29% home win, 28% draw and 44% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (77%), Under 3.5 (70%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Zabbar St. Patrick win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers win✗ Miss
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L00D00D30W11D53W11D01L12L33DH·MAR07/02A·HAM13/02H·VAL17/02A·BIR21/02A·GZI28/02H·MOS07/03A·TAR15/03A·BIR11/04A·MOS15/04A·TAR19/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.431.251.671.221.28
vs Stronger (8)0.501.250.251.500.751.00
vs Similar (22)1.501.501.751.751.361.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D11D10W11D01L21W11D10W22DA·MOS08/02A·NAX14/02A·BIR17/02A·VAL21/02A·TAR28/02H·FLO07/03H·GZI14/03H·HIB10/04H·BIR14/04A·MOS19/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.101.061.001.291.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.831.331.000.500.751.75
vs Weaker (24)1.251.041.071.071.501.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.1%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
0-2
7.6%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.6%
Zabbar St. Patrick goals ↓
Sliema Wanderers goals →
01234
07.6%8.6%7.6%3.9%1.5%
16.5%13%9.2%4.7%1.8%
24.7%7.2%5.6%2.9%1.1%
31.9%2.9%2.2%1.2%0.4%
40.6%0.9%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zabbar St. Patrick goals (down), columns = Sliema Wanderers goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.91
Marsaxlokk
1.74
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.00
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.74
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.50 points worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.32
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
1.03
Birkirkara
0.91
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.17 goals better than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.16).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.68
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Gzira United
1.34
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.38
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Mosta
1.76
Tarxien Rainbows
1.82
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.26 goals worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.12).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
BIR (12)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
HS (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
FLO (6)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
HS (6)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Zabbar St. Patrick vs Sliema Wanderers · H/A from ZSP
DateH/AGameScore
16/01/26ASliema Wanderers Vs ZSP1-0
16/08/25HZSP Vs Sliema Wanderers1-2
04/01/25HZSP Vs Sliema Wanderers1-0
20/10/24ASliema Wanderers Vs ZSP2-0

Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs ZSP3-3
15/04/26AMosta Vs ZSP2-1
11/04/26ABirkirkara Vs ZSP1-0
15/03/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs ZSP1-1
07/03/26HZSP Vs Mosta5-3
28/02/26AGzira United Vs ZSP1-1
21/02/26ABirkirkara Vs ZSP0-3
17/02/26HZSP Vs Valletta FC0-0
13/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs ZSP0-0
07/02/26HZSP Vs Marsaxlokk1-2

Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26AMosta Vs SW2-2
14/04/26HSW Vs Birkirkara1-0
10/04/26HSW Vs Hibernians1-1
14/03/26HSW Vs Gzira United2-1
07/03/26HSW Vs Floriana0-1
28/02/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs SW1-1
21/02/26AValletta FC Vs SW0-1
17/02/26ABirkirkara Vs SW1-1
14/02/26ANaxxar Lions Vs SW1-1
08/02/26AMosta Vs SW0-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Zabbar St. Patrick
Zabbar St. Patrick
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLD1.18
HomeLLLDW1.17
AwayDDLLD1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%30%26%
AVG goals2.662.782.56
Over 1.5 %80%83%78%
Over 2.5 %52%61%44%
Over 3.5 %22%22%22%
Scored1.381.391.37
Conceded1.281.391.19
BTTS54%48%59%
Clean Sheet28%30%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Sliema Wanderers
Sliema Wanderers
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.56
HomeLLWDW1.38
AwayDDWDD1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%38%50%
AVG goals2.442.352.54
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %42%42%42%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.301.151.46
Conceded1.141.191.08
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet26%27%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3465
56%
1.9
5523+32
2.3
74%
35%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.7
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3459
50%
1.7
4539+6
2.5
76%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3434
21%
1.0
4547-2
2.7
82%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3425
15%
0.7
3562-27
2.9
79%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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