The clash between Zabbar St. Patrick and Sliema Wanderers is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. The expected goal total sits at 2.4, with the most probable single scoreline being 1-1 at about 14.3%. Zabbar’s home form shows a low average of 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger opposition, while Sliema’s away numbers are more balanced at 1.14 for and 1.14 against weaker teams. The probabilities for the match outcome are 37% for a Zabbar win, 30% for a draw and 33% for a Sliema victory. The model’s selections include an almost certain Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 (96.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 4.5 (90.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.5%) and Home under 2.5 goals (86.8%). Both sides have been in mixed form recently, with Zabbar coming off a draw and Sliema after three straight defeats, making the outcome uncertain.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zabbar St. Patrick win
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers win
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zabbar St. Patrick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.33
1.25
1.33
1.28
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.35
1.40
1.20
1.44
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.08
1.18
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.08
1.25
0.50
0.88
1.38
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
1.28
0.89
1.33
1.44
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.9%
0-1
9.4%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
Zabbar St. Patrick goals ↓
Sliema Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
9.4%
6.7%
2.8%
0.9%
1
9.1%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.0%
2
6.3%
7.8%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zabbar St. Patrick goals (down), columns = Sliema Wanderers goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.53 points worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.08 goals better than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Zabbar St. Patrick is 0.20 goals worse than Sliema Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zabbar St. Patrick or Draw
63.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Zabbar St. Patrick + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick or Sliema Wanderers
70.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Zabbar St. Patrick + Sliema Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sliema Wanderers
65.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Draw + Sliema Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zabbar St. Patrick, so a minus line means Zabbar St. Patrick give that many goals of a start and Sliema Wanderers receive them. At -1, Zabbar St. Patrick must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zabbar St. Patrick win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick -2
4.9%
Draw -2
10.1%
Sliema Wanderers +2
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick -1
15.0%
Draw -1
19.1%
Sliema Wanderers +1
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick +1
63.9%
Draw +1
19.8%
Sliema Wanderers -1
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zabbar St. Patrick)
Zabbar St. Patrick +2
83.7%
Draw +2
10.7%
Sliema Wanderers -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zabbar St. Patrick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.58
0.75
0.61
0.39
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.54
0.60
0.70
0.69
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.54
0.54
0.41
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.12
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zabbar St. Patrick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.58
0.67
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.81
0.80
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sliema Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sliema Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (18)
0.50
0.67
0.22
0.67
0.78
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zabbar St. Patrick) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zabbar St. Patrick over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sliema Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Zabbar St. Patrick's squad is €3m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick's attack is €2m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Zabbar St. Patrick's midfield is €2m less valuable than Sliema Wanderers's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Zabbar St. Patrick and Sliema Wanderers have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Hibernians
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United