The encounter between Zalaegerszegi TE and Paks is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 40%. The draw probability sits at 26%, while Paks has a 34% chance to lift the trophy. The average number of goals expected is 3.1, but the most likely total is two, a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12% probability. Zalaegerszegi TE, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Paks, on the road against a comparable side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded. The suggested picks are: Over 2.5 cards at 84.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.2%, and Under 11.5 corners at 76.7%. The recent form shows Zalaegerszegi TE coming off four straight defeats, while Paks is returning from a draw. The model’s selection points to a closely contested match with a slight edge for the home side.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Zalaegerszegi TE, did not materialise as the game finished 1-1, a draw that snapped the team’s four-game losing streak. The model’s call was wrong, with a 40% chance of a home win versus a 34% chance of an away win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards hit at 84.7%, Over 1.5 hit at 82.2%, while Under 11.5 corners missed at 76.7%. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely outcome of 1-1, though the predicted total of 2.1 goals was not reached.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zalaegerszegi TE win✗ Miss
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paks win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zalaegerszegi TE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.37
1.07
1.00
1.20
1.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.00
1.50
1.17
1.08
0.83
1.92
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.80
1.47
1.27
2.00
2.33
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
2.67
2.00
2.50
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.57
1.18
1.09
2.00
2.10
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
2.17
2.50
1.00
2.00
2.75
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.9%
Under 3.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.6%
No
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
2-0
6.0%
0-0
5.7%
0-1
5.7%
Zalaegerszegi TE goals ↓
Paks goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.7%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
1
6.3%
12%
8.0%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.8%
6.4%
3.1%
1.2%
3
3.2%
4.7%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zalaegerszegi TE goals (down), columns = Paks goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.91
Kecskeméti TE
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.64
Puskas Academy
1.61
Paks
1.48
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.27
Ujpest
1.24
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.18
Fehérvár FC
1.06
Budapest Honved
1.00
Vasas
0.79
Zalaegerszegi TE is 0.30 points worse than Paks in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.88
Paks
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.58
Kecskeméti TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.45
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Ujpest
1.27
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.21
Fehérvár FC
1.15
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.12
Budapest Honved
1.03
Vasas
0.88
Zalaegerszegi TE is 0.61 goals worse than Paks in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kecskeméti TE
0.97
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.18
Puskas Academy
1.27
Fehérvár FC
1.30
Vasas
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Budapest Honved
1.55
Ujpest
1.67
Paks
1.73
Zalaegerszegi TE is 0.42 goals better than Paks in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zalaegerszegi TE
For 3.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Paks
For 5.3 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
10.1
9.6
10.6
2.4
2.5
2.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
12.0
12.0
-
2.3
3.5
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
10.1
8.8
10.8
2.3
2.1
2.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
8.5
8.0
9.0
3.7
6.0
2.5
-
-
-
% over line
50%
43%
56%
38%
33%
41%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
57%
44%
62%
67%
59%
-
-
-
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
10.7
10.9
10.4
2.6
2.9
2.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
11.7
12.5
10.0
7.3
6.0
10.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
10.9
10.5
11.5
1.9
2.0
1.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
9.6
10.5
9.0
3.2
5.0
2.2
-
-
-
% over line
67%
60%
75%
34%
38%
31%
-
-
-
% under line
33%
40%
25%
66%
62%
69%
-
-
-
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.7
Zalaegerszegi TE
10.1
Ferencvarosi TC
10.1
Mezokovesd-zsory
9.8
Budapest Honved
9.6
Kisvarda FC
9.6
Ujpest
9.6
Debreceni VSC
8.9
Fehérvár FC
8.8
Puskas Academy
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Puskas Academy
5.7
Fehérvár FC
5.4
Ujpest
5.0
Ferencvarosi TC
5.0
Zalaegerszegi TE
4.9
Paks
4.7
Mezokovesd-zsory
4.6
Budapest Honved
4.2
Debreceni VSC
4.1
Kisvarda FC
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ferencvarosi TC
24.9
Fehérvár FC
15.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.9%
Under 9.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.0%
Under 3.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zalaegerszegi TE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.73
0.40
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.75
0.75
0.42
0.33
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.67
0.64
0.55
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zalaegerszegi TE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.75
0.42
0.67
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.07
0.80
0.80
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.90
0.55
0.55
1.40
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.00
1.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zalaegerszegi TE · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
José Calderón20%
Bence Babos20%
Arthur Henrique Marques20%
Bence Kiss0%
András Csonka0%
Bence Gundel-Takács0%
Norbert Szendrei0%
Joseth Peraza0%
Queyrell Tchicamboud0%
Danylo Krevsun0%
Fabricio Amato0%
Maxsuell Alegria0%
Lucas Alfonso0%
Moises Cedeno0%
Diogo Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseth Peraza75%
Norbert Szendrei33%
Moises Cedeno33%
Queyrell Tchicamboud25%
José Calderón20%
Fabricio Amato20%
Bence Kiss0%
András Csonka0%
Bence Gundel-Takács0%
Bence Babos0%
Danylo Krevsun0%
Maxsuell Alegria0%
Lucas Alfonso0%
Arthur Henrique Marques0%
Diogo Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
András Csonka20%
Bence Gundel-Takács20%
Bence Kiss0%
Norbert Szendrei0%
José Calderón0%
Joseth Peraza0%
Queyrell Tchicamboud0%
Bence Babos0%
Danylo Krevsun0%
Fabricio Amato0%
Maxsuell Alegria0%
Lucas Alfonso0%
Moises Cedeno0%
Arthur Henrique Marques0%
Diogo Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Norbert Szendrei33%
Moises Cedeno33%
Fabricio Amato20%
Bence Kiss0%
András Csonka0%
Bence Gundel-Takács0%
José Calderón0%
Joseth Peraza0%
Queyrell Tchicamboud0%
Bence Babos0%
Danylo Krevsun0%
Maxsuell Alegria0%
Lucas Alfonso0%
Arthur Henrique Marques0%
Diogo Silva0%
Paks · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
József Szalai83%
M. Pető43%
J. Windecker33%
Zsolt Haraszti20%
Andor Lapu20%
Milán Győrfi17%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
J. Hahn0%
Kristóf Papp0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
K. Horváth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Windecker50%
K. Horváth43%
B. Lenzsér40%
J. Szabó40%
Kristóf Papp29%
J. Hahn25%
Andor Lapu20%
Milán Győrfi17%
M. Pető14%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
József Szalai0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zsolt Haraszti40%
Andor Lapu40%
B. Vécsei33%
Kristóf Papp29%
József Szalai17%
K. Horváth14%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
J. Hahn0%
J. Windecker0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
M. Pető0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
József Szalai50%
M. Pető43%
Dániel Böde25%
J. Hahn25%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
Kristóf Papp0%
J. Windecker0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Andor Lapu0%
K. Horváth0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
KT (22)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
Zalaegerszegi TE's squad is €3m less valuable than Paks's (€5m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
KT (9)
€1m
BH (6)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
Zalaegerszegi TE's attack is €1m less valuable than Paks's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
KT (2)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
Zalaegerszegi TE and Paks have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
KT (11)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
Zalaegerszegi TE's defence is €1m less valuable than Paks's (€2m vs €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ferencvarosi TC
Kecskeméti TE
Debreceni VSC
Puskas Academy
Kisvarda FC
Mezokovesd-zsory
Ujpest
Fehérvár FC
Budapest Honved
Vasas