The contest is finely balanced, yet the model favours a home win. With a 37 % chance for Žalgiris II, 28 % for a draw and 35 % for Babrungas, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 scoreline, which carries a 13.2 % probability. The average number of goals expected is 2.8, with the most common total being two goals at a 25 % likelihood.
Žalgiris II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Babrungas, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.4 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Recent form shows Žalgiris II on a two-game winning streak after a 4-1 victory over FA Šiauliai II, while Babrungas comes off a 1-1 draw with Tauras.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Under 5.5 (93.8 %), Under 4.5 (85.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (84.1 %) and Home under 2.5 goals (83.4 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Žalgiris II win
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Babrungas win
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
1.87
1.53
1.80
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.71
1.25
1.50
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.29
2.00
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
2.29
2.25
2.00
1.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.03
2.31
1.38
2.18
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.26
1.07
2.17
1.50
2.33
0.73
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
6.9%
0-0
6.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
0-2
6.0%
Žalgiris II goals ↓
Babrungas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.9%
6.0%
3.0%
1.1%
1
6.5%
13%
8.6%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.2%
6.1%
3.1%
1.1%
3
2.6%
3.9%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Babrungas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Žalgiris II is 0.43 points better than Babrungas in terms of average points per game (2.71 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Žalgiris II is 0.43 goals better than Babrungas in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Žalgiris II is 0.43 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Žalgiris II or Draw
61.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Žalgiris II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II or Babrungas
73.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Žalgiris II + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Babrungas
65.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
27%
38%
covers Draw + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Žalgiris II, so a minus line means Žalgiris II give that many goals of a start and Babrungas receive them. At -1, Žalgiris II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Žalgiris II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Žalgiris II)
Žalgiris II -2
6.2%
Draw -2
10.5%
Babrungas +2
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Žalgiris II)
Žalgiris II -1
16.7%
Draw -1
18.2%
Babrungas +1
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Žalgiris II)
Žalgiris II +1
61.8%
Draw +1
19.2%
Babrungas -1
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Žalgiris II)
Žalgiris II +2
81.0%
Draw +2
11.7%
Babrungas -2
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.23
0.69
0.94
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.07
0.56
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.50
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.08
0.69
1.24
0.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.19
0.52
1.00
0.75
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →