This high-scoring match between Žalgiris II and Kauno Žalgiris II in the Lithuania: 1 Lyga is expected to deliver 3.3 goals on average. Žalgiris II's recent form is coming off a draw, having drawn 1-1 against Ekranas in their last match, while Kauno Žalgiris II is looking to build on their recent win, having defeated Atmosfera 3-1. Žalgiris II's home form is showing an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against similar opponents, whereas Kauno Žalgiris II's away form is averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded.
The model's selection is a home win, with a probability of 48%. The draw is seen as a 24% possibility, while the away win is a 28% chance. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.8%. The model also suggests Over 1.5, with a probability of 85.3% and an edge of 7%. Žalgiris II's home win percentage stands at 48%, the draw percentage at 24%, and the away win percentage at 28%.
Results analysis
The win extends their run, with Žalgiris II securing a 2-1 victory over Kauno Žalgiris II, resulting in home win. The model's selection, home win, was correct, as it had a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's call was vindicated, as the favoured result landed. The model's selection of home win proved accurate. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a pre-match probability of 85.3%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals was the only selection to hit, as the other selections were not listed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied 45.9% · @ 1.94
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.00
Dafabet
1.99
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.45
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Kauno Žalgiris II win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.15
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.24
William Hil
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.47
1.60
1.47
1.80
1.47
vs Stronger (8)
1.75
1.62
1.25
1.50
2.25
1.75
vs Similar (15)
1.80
1.13
1.75
1.38
1.86
0.86
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
2.00
1.67
1.67
1.25
2.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
2.03
1.50
1.88
1.64
2.21
vs Stronger (27)
1.44
2.07
1.43
1.86
1.46
2.31
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.3%
@ 1.17+7.3%
Under 1.5
14.7%
@ 4.15-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.4%
@ 1.60+7.5%
Under 2.5
35.6%
@ 2.11-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.3%
@ 2.48+5.6%
Under 3.5
57.7%
@ 1.45-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.48
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
Under
Betfair
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.5%
@ 1.53+6.1%
No
34.5%
@ 2.23-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
No
1xBet
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
William Hil
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 6.34+4.1%
2-1 ✓
9.2%@ 7.68+3.8%
1-2
7.0%@ 10.03+2.8%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.91+2.7%
2-0
6.5%@ 9.74+2.2%
1-0
5.9%@ 8.41+0.9%
3-1
5.8%@ 12.49+2.5%
0-0
4.6%@ 11.81+1.0%
Žalgiris II goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.2%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
1
5.9%
11%
7.0%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.5%
9.2%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.1%
5.8%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
4
1.9%
2.8%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Žalgiris II is 1.21 points better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (2.71 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Žalgiris II is 0.31 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Žalgiris II is 0.81 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.73
0.67
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.53
0.75
0.62
1.14
0.43
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.14
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
0.44
1.12
1.14
0.79
vs Stronger (27)
0.74
0.93
0.50
1.07
1.00
0.77
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.75
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.86
1.00
0.67
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.07
1.06
0.75
0.50
1.43
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
1.15
0.93
0.79
0.46
1.54
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.3%
1.17
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+7.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava