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Žalgiris II vs Minija Result & Analysis

Date: 28/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-0
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Vs
39%
28%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Žalgiris II a 39% win probability against Minija in the Lithuania: 1 Lyga on 2026-07-28, with 28% for the draw and 34% for Minija. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (78%).

Results analysis

Žalgiris II finished 1-0 against Minija (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 39% home win, 28% draw and 34% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (78%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minija win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L01L10W11D11D41W01L00D14L20WH·EKR29/08A·BFA12/09H·KAU20/09A·HEG26/09H·PAN04/10A·FA 19/10H·MIN24/10H·JON31/10A·TRA09/11A·HEG21/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.571.671.601.731.53
vs Stronger (11)1.452.001.502.001.402.00
vs Similar (11)1.820.911.801.201.830.67
vs Weaker (8)1.881.881.751.502.002.25
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L11D21W20W41W02L01L10W05L03LA·EKR22/08H·BFA30/08A·KAU13/09H·HEG19/09A·PAN26/09H·FA 04/10H·JON18/10A·ŽAL24/10H·TRA31/10H·BE109/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.530.801.871.001.20
vs Stronger (12)0.752.000.502.671.001.33
vs Similar (12)1.001.171.001.331.001.00
vs Weaker (6)1.001.331.001.331.001.33
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
1-0 ✓
7.6%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.0%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Žalgiris II goals ↓
Minija goals →
01234
07.3%7.0%5.5%2.5%0.8%
17.6%13%8.0%3.6%1.2%
26.4%8.6%5.8%2.6%0.9%
33.1%4.2%2.8%1.3%0.4%
41.1%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Minija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Transinvest 2
1.41
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Dainava
1.36
Minija
1.20
Garliava
1.10
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Žalgiris II is 0.20 points better than Minija in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
Transinvest 2
1.54
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Garliava
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.17
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Žalgiris II is 0.77 goals better than Minija in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.90).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Transinvest 2
1.58
Žalgiris II
1.60
Dainava
1.63
Hegelmann II
1.70
Be1 NFA
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Garliava
2.03
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Žalgiris II is 0.07 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L00D10W01L30W01L00D13L10WH·EKR29/08A·BFA12/09H·KAU20/09A·HEG26/09H·PAN04/10A·FA 19/10H·MIN24/10H·JON31/10A·TRA09/11A·HEG21/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.830.670.730.930.93
vs Stronger (11)0.731.000.670.670.801.40
vs Similar (11)0.730.550.600.600.830.50
vs Weaker (8)1.001.000.751.001.251.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L20W10W20W02L00D10W03L00DA·EKR22/08H·BFA30/08A·KAU13/09H·HEG19/09A·PAN26/09H·FA 04/10H·JON18/10A·ŽAL24/10H·TRA31/10H·BE109/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.630.130.870.670.40
vs Stronger (12)0.250.920.001.330.500.50
vs Similar (12)0.500.580.330.830.670.33
vs Weaker (6)0.500.170.000.001.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Žalgiris II vs Minija · H/A from ŽI
DateH/AGameScore
24/10/25HŽI Vs Minija0-1
17/06/25AMinija Vs ŽI1-4
15/10/23HŽI Vs Minija2-3
27/05/23AMinija Vs ŽI3-0
05/08/22HŽI Vs Minija1-3
26/03/22AMinija Vs ŽI0-0

Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/26AHegelmann II Vs ŽI0-2
09/11/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs ŽI4-1
31/10/25HŽI Vs Jonava0-0
24/10/25HŽI Vs Minija0-1
19/10/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs ŽI1-4
04/10/25HŽI Vs Panevėžys II1-1
26/09/25AHegelmann II Vs ŽI1-1
20/09/25HŽI Vs Kauno Žalgiris II1-0
12/09/25ABFA Vs ŽI1-0
29/08/25HŽI Vs Ekranas2-4

MinijaMinija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HMIN Vs Be1 NFA0-3
31/10/25HMIN Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-5
24/10/25AŽalgiris II Vs MIN0-1
18/10/25HMIN Vs Jonava0-1
04/10/25HMIN Vs FA Šiauliai II0-2
26/09/25APanevėžys II Vs MIN1-4
19/09/25HMIN Vs Hegelmann II2-0
13/09/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs MIN1-2
30/08/25HMIN Vs BFA1-1
22/08/25AEkranas Vs MIN3-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.36
HomeLWDLD1.37
AwayLDWLW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%37%35%
AVG goals3.623.933.26
Over 1.5 %86%81%91%
Over 2.5 %64%70%57%
Over 3.5 %48%52%43%
Scored1.842.001.65
Conceded1.781.931.61
BTTS68%70%65%
Clean Sheet16%19%13%
Corners---
Cards---
Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.14
HomeWLLLL1.04
AwayWLWWW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%29%35%
AVG goals2.522.462.58
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored0.960.831.08
Conceded1.561.621.50
BTTS40%33%46%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II513
80%
2.6
103+7
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.6
-
2BabrungasBabrungas512
80%
2.4
102+8
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.4
-
3BFABFA510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
60%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda510
60%
2.0
77+0
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija49
75%
2.2
121+11
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.2
-
6DainavaDainava48
50%
2.0
63+3
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.8
-
7TaurasTauras47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
8JonavaJonava46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
9Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II56
40%
1.2
810-2
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
10AtmosferaAtmosfera44
25%
1.0
67-1
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
11Transinvest 2Transinvest 254
20%
0.8
710-3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II44
25%
1.0
47-3
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
13EkranasEkranas54
20%
0.8
413-9
3.4
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
14Be1 NFABe1 NFA43
25%
0.8
39-6
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
15Hegelmann IIHegelmann II53
20%
0.6
513-8
3.6
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
16GarliavaGarliava40
0%
0.0
16-5
1.8
25%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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