The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an average of 3.3 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% probability, and the favored result is a home win, with a 42% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 33% chance of an away win. Žalgiris II, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Neptūnas Klaipėda, on the road and also facing a comparable side, averages 3.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.8%), Under 6.5 (94.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.8%), and Home under 3.5 goals (89.8%). Žalgiris II are riding a four-game winning streak, while Neptūnas Klaipėda come off a recent win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Žalgiris II win
41.9%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.07
Edge
+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.09
Unibet
3.05
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.58
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Neptūną Klaipėda win
33.2%
Avg Implied 45.1% · @ 2.01
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
1.98
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
1.87
1.53
1.80
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.71
1.25
1.50
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.29
2.00
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
2.29
2.25
2.00
1.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.07
1.29
0.86
3.12
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.20
1.00
2.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
2.88
0.94
1.50
0.67
3.70
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.43
2.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.2%
@ 1.48+3.1%
Under 2.5
35.8%
@ 2.33-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.48
Under
Unibet
2.33
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.2%
@ 2.20+1.0%
Under 3.5
57.8%
@ 1.54-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.20
Under
Unibet
1.54
Both teams to score
Yes
66.2%
@ 1.45+2.9%
No
33.8%
@ 2.50-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.45
No
Unibet
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
4.7%
Žalgiris II goals ↓
Neptūną Klaipėda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
4.7%
4.4%
2.3%
0.9%
1
5.4%
11%
7.7%
4.0%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.8%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.3%
5.1%
4.0%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.5%
2.3%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Žalgiris II is 0.86 points better than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of average points per game (2.71 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Žalgiris II is 0.71 goals better than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Žalgiris II is 0.57 goals better than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Žalgiris II or Draw
66.8%
Avg Implied 54.6% · @ 1.63
Edge
+12.2%
42%
25%
33%
covers Žalgiris II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.63
Žalgiris II or Neptūną Klaipėda
75.1%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.19
Edge
+0.4%
42%
25%
33%
covers Žalgiris II + Neptūną Klaipėda
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.19
Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda
58.1%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.26
Edge
-12.5%
42%
25%
33%
covers Draw + Neptūną Klaipėda
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.26
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Žalgiris II, so a minus line means Žalgiris II give that many goals of a start and Neptūną Klaipėda receive them. At -1, Žalgiris II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Žalgiris II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Žalgiris II)
Žalgiris II -2
9.8%
Draw -2
12.9%
Neptūną Klaipėda +2
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Žalgiris II)
Žalgiris II -1
22.7%
Draw -1
19.2%
Neptūną Klaipėda +1
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Žalgiris II)
Žalgiris II +1
66.8%
Draw +1
16.8%
Neptūną Klaipėda -1
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Žalgiris II)
Žalgiris II +2
83.6%
Draw +2
10.0%
Neptūną Klaipėda -2
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
0.64
0.50
1.69
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.00
0.60
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.31
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.8%
Under 0.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.1%
Under 1.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.7%
Under 2.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.50
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
0.64
0.36
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.20
0.40
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.25
0.62
0.50
0.33
1.70
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.86
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.9%
Under 0.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.9%
Under 1.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.7%
Under
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.1%
1.21
Unibet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
1.19
Unibet
1.19
-
-
-
-
+0.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Žalgiris II and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
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Babrungas
BFA
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava