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Zaqatala vs Baku Sportinq Result & Analysis

Date: 02/10/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 1-1
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Vs
47%
27%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zaqatala win✗ Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W01L02L10W30W04L01L10W04L10WH·BAK10/04A·DIF17/04H·IMI25/04H·MOI02/05H·KAR09/05A·QAB15/05A·CƏB23/05H·CƏB11/09H·SAF18/09A·MOI25/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.301.731.130.731.47
vs Stronger (22)1.231.411.751.250.601.60
vs Similar (4)1.751.502.001.001.671.67
vs Weaker (4)0.750.501.500.500.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-616L01L04L12L12L00D00D22D32W41WA·ZAQ10/04H·QAR17/04A·MIN24/04A·CƏB01/05H·DIF08/05A·IMI16/05H·MOI23/05H·DIF13/09A·ŞAH18/09H·ŞIM25/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.700.871.471.001.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.811.690.621.751.001.62
vs Weaker (14)1.071.711.141.141.002.29
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.6%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
7.9%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
5.7%
2-2
5.7%
Zaqatala goals ↓
Baku Sportinq goals →
01234
06.9%5.7%4.1%1.6%0.5%
18.4%13%6.8%2.7%0.8%
27.9%9.5%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.4%5.2%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.8%2.2%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaqatala goals (down), columns = Baku Sportinq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Zaqatala is 0.78 points worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Zaqatala is 0.48 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Zaqatala is 0.78 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L01L00D00D02L00D10W01L10WH·BAK10/04A·DIF17/04H·IMI25/04H·MOI02/05H·KAR09/05A·QAB15/05A·CƏB23/05H·CƏB11/09H·SAF18/09A·MOI25/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.670.400.330.67
vs Stronger (22)0.500.640.580.500.400.80
vs Similar (4)0.500.501.000.000.330.67
vs Weaker (4)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D02L01L00D00D00D21W31W20WA·ZAQ10/04H·QAR17/04A·MIN24/04A·CƏB01/05H·DIF08/05A·IMI16/05H·MOI23/05H·DIF13/09A·ŞAH18/09H·ŞIM25/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.400.600.530.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.310.810.120.880.500.75
vs Weaker (14)0.640.570.710.290.570.86
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W00D01L10W30W02L01L00D03L00DH·BAK10/04A·DIF17/04H·IMI25/04H·MOI02/05H·KAR09/05A·QAB15/05A·CƏB23/05H·CƏB11/09H·SAF18/09A·MOI25/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.771.070.730.400.80
vs Stronger (22)0.730.771.170.750.200.80
vs Similar (4)1.251.001.001.001.331.00
vs Weaker (4)0.250.500.500.500.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L01L02L11D12L00D00D01L01L21WA·ZAQ10/04H·QAR17/04A·MIN24/04A·CƏB01/05H·DIF08/05A·IMI16/05H·MOI23/05H·DIF13/09A·ŞAH18/09H·ŞIM25/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.000.470.870.471.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.880.500.880.500.88
vs Weaker (14)0.431.140.430.860.431.43
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (5)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (8)
€3m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
ZAQ wins
1
Draws
0
BS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zaqatala vs Baku Sportinq · H/A from ZAQ
DateH/AGameScore
10/04/25HZAQ Vs Baku Sportinq6-1
07/02/25ABaku Sportinq Vs ZAQ0-0
18/10/24HZAQ Vs Baku Sportinq2-0

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/25AMOIK Vs ZAQ0-1
18/09/25HZAQ Vs Safa Baku0-4
11/09/25HZAQ Vs Cəbrayıl1-0
23/05/25ACəbrayıl Vs ZAQ1-0
15/05/25AQabala Vs ZAQ4-0
09/05/25HZAQ Vs Karvan3-0
02/05/25HZAQ Vs MOIK1-0
25/04/25HZAQ Vs Imisli FK0-2
17/04/25ADifai Ağsu Vs ZAQ1-0
10/04/25HZAQ Vs Baku Sportinq6-1

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/25HBS Vs Şimal4-1
18/09/25AŞahdağ Vs BS2-3
13/09/25HBS Vs Difai Ağsu2-2
23/05/25HBS Vs MOIK0-0
16/05/25AImisli FK Vs BS0-0
08/05/25HBS Vs Difai Ağsu1-2
01/05/25ACəbrayıl Vs BS2-1
24/04/25AMingəçevir Vs BS4-0
17/04/25HBS Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-1
10/04/25AZaqatala Vs BS6-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.22
HomeLWWWL1.62
AwayDLLLW0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%46%15%
AVG goals2.402.792.04
Over 1.5 %70%83%58%
Over 2.5 %42%50%35%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.141.580.73
Conceded1.261.211.31
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDWW1.13
HomeLLDDW0.93
AwayLLLDW1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%20%38%
AVG goals2.652.332.94
Over 1.5 %68%60%75%
Over 2.5 %52%40%62%
Over 3.5 %35%33%38%
Scored0.970.871.06
Conceded1.681.471.88
BTTS45%33%56%
Clean Sheet23%27%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1031.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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