Zaqatala’s home form has been uneven, yet they still hold a 17 % chance of triumph, while Baku Sportinq, on the road, boasts a 59 % chance of victory, making the away win the model’s pick. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at a 25 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7 % chance.
Zaqatala averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opponents at home, whereas Baku Sportinq averages 1.33 scored and 0.89 conceded when facing weaker teams away. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (99.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (97.7 %), Away +2 handicap (94.2 %), Under 5.5 (93.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (93.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (88.3 %), and Under 4.5 (85.5 %). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and the home, draw, and away win percentages are 17 %, 24 %, and 59 % respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zaqatala win
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq win
58.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zaqatala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.73
1.00
1.79
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (23)
0.91
1.61
0.92
1.83
0.91
1.36
vs Similar (3)
1.00
3.33
2.00
3.00
0.50
3.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.53
0.93
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.93
1.88
0.88
1.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
0-2
10.9%
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
6.1%
2-1
4.8%
Zaqatala goals ↓
Baku Sportinq goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
11%
11%
6.7%
3.1%
1
4.7%
12%
9.8%
6.1%
2.8%
2
2.6%
4.8%
4.4%
2.7%
1.3%
3
0.8%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaqatala goals (down), columns = Baku Sportinq goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Zaqatala is 0.78 points worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Zaqatala is 0.48 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Zaqatala is 0.78 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zaqatala or Draw
41.4%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
59%
covers Zaqatala + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala or Baku Sportinq
75.5%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
59%
covers Zaqatala + Baku Sportinq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Baku Sportinq
83.1%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
59%
covers Draw + Baku Sportinq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5
Over
59.4%
Under
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5
Over
84.3%
Under
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5
Over
55.2%
Under
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 3.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zaqatala, so a minus line means Zaqatala give that many goals of a start and Baku Sportinq receive them. At -1, Zaqatala must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zaqatala win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala -2
1.5%
Draw -2
4.4%
Baku Sportinq +2
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala -1
5.8%
Draw -1
11.0%
Baku Sportinq +1
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala +1
41.4%
Draw +1
23.7%
Baku Sportinq -1
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala +2
65.1%
Draw +2
18.4%
Baku Sportinq -2
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zaqatala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.43
0.93
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (23)
0.30
0.70
0.25
0.92
0.36
0.45
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.33
0.57
0.57
0.62
0.12
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.25
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.2%
Under 0.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.9%
Under 1.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zaqatala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.57
0.86
0.56
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
0.61
0.91
0.67
0.92
0.55
0.91
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.47
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.6%
Under 0.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.5%
Under 1.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Şahdağ
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Şimal
Cəbrayıl
MOIK