PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Zaqatala vs Karvan Result & Analysis

Date: 05/04/2024
Time: 10:00
Final 1-1
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Vs
34%
29%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zaqatala win✗ Miss
33.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win✗ Miss
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W12L20W11D11D12L11D12L03L01LH·DIF06/12A·MOI13/12A·KAR25/12H·QAR09/02A·ARA15/02H·IMI22/02A·ŞAM28/02H·MIN07/03A·İRƏ14/03H·MOI29/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.471.671.401.071.53
vs Stronger (28)1.391.501.711.361.071.64
vs Similar (2)1.001.001.002.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W01L02L10W10W10W02L06L01L00DH·İRƏ06/12A·DIF13/12H·ZAQ25/12A·MOI08/02A·QAR15/02H·ARA21/02A·IMI29/02H·ŞAM07/03A·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.261.261.101.501.441.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.921.310.861.711.000.83
vs Weaker (6)2.001.171.671.002.331.33
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.8%
0-1
8.6%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
Zaqatala goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
08.6%8.6%6.7%3.0%1.0%
18.0%14%8.4%3.8%1.3%
25.9%7.9%5.3%2.4%0.8%
32.5%3.3%2.2%1.0%0.3%
40.8%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaqatala goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
Zaqatala is 0.59 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.63).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
Zaqatala is 0.44 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
Zaqatala is 0.11 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.26).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D10W01L10W12L01L11D00D00DH·DIF06/12A·MOI13/12A·KAR25/12H·QAR09/02A·ARA15/02H·IMI22/02A·ŞAM28/02H·MIN07/03A·İRƏ14/03H·MOI29/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.500.800.730.530.27
vs Stronger (28)0.680.500.790.710.570.29
vs Similar (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L00D00D00D00D04L01L00DH·İRƏ06/12A·DIF13/12H·ZAQ25/12A·MOI08/02A·QAR15/02H·ARA21/02A·IMI29/02H·ŞAM07/03A·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.680.300.900.440.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.310.690.291.140.330.17
vs Weaker (6)0.500.670.330.330.671.00
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W01L10W10W01L00D10W01L03L01LH·DIF06/12A·MOI13/12A·KAR25/12H·QAR09/02A·ARA15/02H·IMI22/02A·ŞAM28/02H·MIN07/03A·İRƏ14/03H·MOI29/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.970.870.670.531.27
vs Stronger (28)0.711.000.930.640.501.36
vs Similar (2)0.500.500.001.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L01L10W10W10W02L02L00D00DH·İRƏ06/12A·DIF13/12H·ZAQ25/12A·MOI08/02A·QAR15/02H·ARA21/02A·IMI29/02H·ŞAM07/03A·MIN14/03H·DIF28/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.890.580.800.601.000.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.620.570.570.670.67
vs Weaker (6)1.500.501.330.671.670.33
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
Zaqatala and Karvan have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
Zaqatala and Karvan have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Zaqatala and Karvan have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
ZAQ wins
1
Draws
0
KAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zaqatala vs Karvan · H/A from ZAQ
DateH/AGameScore
25/12/23AKarvan Vs ZAQ0-2
04/10/23HZAQ Vs Karvan2-2

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/24HZAQ Vs MOIK0-1
14/03/24Aİrəvan Vs ZAQ3-0
07/03/24HZAQ Vs Mingəçevir1-2
28/02/24AŞamaxı FK Vs ZAQ1-1
22/02/24HZAQ Vs Imisli FK1-2
15/02/24AAraz Saatlı Vs ZAQ1-1
09/02/24HZAQ Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan1-1
25/12/23AKarvan Vs ZAQ0-2
13/12/23AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-1
06/12/23HZAQ Vs Difai Ağsu4-2

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/24HKAR Vs Difai Ağsu0-0
14/03/24AMingəçevir Vs KAR1-0
07/03/24HKAR Vs Şamaxı FK0-6
29/02/24AImisli FK Vs KAR2-0
21/02/24HKAR Vs Araz Saatlı1-0
15/02/24AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs KAR0-1
08/02/24AMOIK Vs KAR0-1
25/12/23HKAR Vs Zaqatala0-2
13/12/23ADifai Ağsu Vs KAR1-0
06/12/23HKAR Vs İrəvan2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.34
HomeWDLLL1.71
AwayLWDDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%26%
AVG goals3.113.252.96
Over 1.5 %91%92%91%
Over 2.5 %62%62%61%
Over 3.5 %36%42%30%
Scored1.491.921.04
Conceded1.621.331.91
BTTS66%71%61%
Clean Sheet19%21%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD1.47
HomeWLWLD1.40
AwayLWWLL1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.532.602.44
Over 1.5 %63%80%44%
Over 2.5 %37%40%33%
Over 3.5 %26%20%33%
Scored1.261.101.44
Conceded1.261.501.00
BTTS32%30%33%
Clean Sheet37%40%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches