PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Zaqatala vs Karvan Result & Analysis

Date: 09/05/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 3-0
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Vs
38%
26%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zaqatala win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L00D23L11D00D22D61W01L02L10WA·IMI19/02A·MOI28/02A·KAR07/03H·QAB13/03H·QAR27/03A·MIN03/04H·BAK10/04A·DIF17/04H·IMI25/04H·MOI02/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.201.711.140.751.25
vs Stronger (23)1.171.261.671.170.641.36
vs Similar (5)1.401.202.001.001.251.25
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D02L32W11D11D53W11D11D20W20WA·CƏB19/02A·QAB28/02H·ZAQ07/03A·QAR13/03H·BAK27/03A·DIF03/04H·IMI11/04A·MOI18/04H·CƏB25/04H·QAB02/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.372.000.932.271.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)2.001.481.801.002.181.91
vs Weaker (9)2.441.112.400.802.501.50
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.5%
No
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
2-0
5.5%
0-0
5.5%
Zaqatala goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
05.5%5.7%5.2%2.7%1.0%
15.9%12%8.3%4.3%1.6%
25.5%8.5%6.5%3.4%1.3%
32.9%4.5%3.5%1.8%0.7%
41.2%1.8%1.4%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaqatala goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qabala
2.48
Imisli FK
1.93
Karvan
1.74
Mingəçevir
1.30
Zaqatala
1.26
MOIK
1.11
Baku Sportinq
1.04
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.89
Zaqatala is 0.48 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qabala
2.07
Karvan
1.96
Imisli FK
1.59
Difai Ağsu
1.33
Zaqatala
1.30
Mingəçevir
1.11
MOIK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Cəbrayıl
0.85
Baku Sportinq
0.78
Zaqatala is 0.67 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qabala
0.30
Imisli FK
0.74
Cəbrayıl
1.26
Zaqatala
1.26
Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.37
Baku Sportinq
1.59
MOIK
1.59
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.63
Difai Ağsu
1.93
Zaqatala is 0.11 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.37).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D21W01L00D01L21W01L01L00DA·IMI19/02A·MOI28/02A·KAR07/03H·QAB13/03H·QAR27/03A·MIN03/04H·BAK10/04A·DIF17/04H·IMI25/04H·MOI02/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.570.640.570.310.56
vs Stronger (23)0.480.650.580.670.360.64
vs Similar (5)0.400.401.000.000.250.50
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D12L01L00D41W01L01L10W00DA·CƏB19/02A·QAB28/02H·ZAQ07/03A·QAR13/03H·BAK27/03A·DIF03/04H·IMI11/04A·MOI18/04H·CƏB25/04H·QAB02/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.530.800.471.070.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.950.670.800.501.090.82
vs Weaker (9)0.890.220.800.401.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D02L10W00D21W40W00D01L10WA·IMI19/02A·MOI28/02A·KAR07/03H·QAB13/03H·QAR27/03A·MIN03/04H·BAK10/04A·DIF17/04H·IMI25/04H·MOI02/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.631.070.570.440.69
vs Stronger (23)0.700.611.080.500.270.73
vs Similar (5)1.000.801.001.001.000.75
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L20W10W11D12L10W10W10W20WA·CƏB19/02A·QAB28/02H·ZAQ07/03A·QAR13/03H·BAK27/03A·DIF03/04H·IMI11/04A·MOI18/04H·CƏB25/04H·QAB02/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.831.200.471.201.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.050.811.000.501.091.09
vs Weaker (9)1.560.891.600.401.501.50
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
QAB (18)
€5m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Zaqatala and Karvan have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Zaqatala and Karvan have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Zaqatala and Karvan have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
ZAQ wins
3
Draws
1
KAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zaqatala vs Karvan · H/A from ZAQ
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/25AKarvan Vs ZAQ3-2
13/12/24HZAQ Vs Karvan2-2
05/04/24HZAQ Vs Karvan1-1
25/12/23AKarvan Vs ZAQ0-2
04/10/23HZAQ Vs Karvan2-2

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/25HZAQ Vs MOIK1-0
25/04/25HZAQ Vs Imisli FK0-2
17/04/25ADifai Ağsu Vs ZAQ1-0
10/04/25HZAQ Vs Baku Sportinq6-1
03/04/25AMingəçevir Vs ZAQ2-2
27/03/25HZAQ Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-0
13/03/25HZAQ Vs Qabala1-1
07/03/25AKarvan Vs ZAQ3-2
28/02/25AMOIK Vs ZAQ0-0
19/02/25AImisli FK Vs ZAQ1-0

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/25HKAR Vs Qabala2-0
25/04/25HKAR Vs Cəbrayıl2-0
18/04/25AMOIK Vs KAR1-1
11/04/25HKAR Vs Imisli FK1-1
03/04/25ADifai Ağsu Vs KAR3-5
27/03/25HKAR Vs Baku Sportinq1-1
13/03/25AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs KAR1-1
07/03/25HKAR Vs Zaqatala3-2
28/02/25AQabala Vs KAR2-0
19/02/25ACəbrayıl Vs KAR1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.16
HomeDDWLW1.56
AwayLDLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%40%12%
AVG goals2.502.842.16
Over 1.5 %76%88%64%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %26%28%24%
Scored1.201.640.76
Conceded1.301.201.40
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWW1.72
HomeWDDWW1.81
AwayDLDWD1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%54%46%
AVG goals3.042.583.54
Over 1.5 %76%69%83%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %34%27%42%
Scored1.721.462.00
Conceded1.321.121.54
BTTS48%38%58%
Clean Sheet28%42%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QabalaQabala2767
78%
2.5
568+48
2.4
70%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1132.10.3
-
2Imisli FKImisli FK2752
56%
1.9
4320+23
2.3
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.60.7
-
3KarvanKarvan2747
48%
1.7
5337+16
3.3
93%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.4
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir2735
33%
1.3
3036-6
2.4
67%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala2734
30%
1.3
3534+1
2.6
67%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6MOIKMOIK2730
30%
1.1
2743-16
2.6
63%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
7Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2728
26%
1.0
2143-22
2.4
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2727
26%
1.0
2334-11
2.1
70%
41%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2726
26%
1.0
3652-16
3.3
70%
59%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2724
19%
0.9
2744-17
2.6
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches