PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Zaqatala vs MOIK Result & Analysis

Date: 28/09/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 2-2
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Vs
41%
28%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zaqatala win✗ Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MOIK win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W21W20W20W30W23L22D02L02L00DH·IMI04/04A·KEŞ12/04H·KAP17/04A·SUM25/04H·ZIR03/05A·TUR09/05H·FK 16/05A·ARA23/05H·İRƏ14/09A·DIF21/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.672.131.271.132.07
vs Stronger (28)1.611.682.141.291.072.07
vs Similar (2)2.001.502.001.002.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D20W03L12L20W00D00D24L30W10WA·ZIR29/03H·TUR05/04A·FK 11/04H·ARA17/04A·MIN04/05H·QAR09/05A·SƏB16/05H·NEF23/05A·DIF14/09H·IMI20/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.402.001.531.131.27
vs Stronger (2)2.002.502.004.002.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.381.432.001.270.701.60
vs Weaker (7)2.001.002.001.672.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
0-1
6.9%
2-2 ✓
5.7%
Zaqatala goals ↓
MOIK goals →
01234
07.5%6.9%5.2%2.2%0.7%
18.2%13%7.7%3.3%1.0%
26.9%8.9%5.7%2.4%0.8%
33.4%4.4%2.8%1.2%0.4%
41.3%1.6%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaqatala goals (down), columns = MOIK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
Zaqatala is 0.78 points worse than MOIK in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
Zaqatala is 0.93 goals worse than MOIK in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.96).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
Zaqatala is 0.33 goals worse than MOIK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.04).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D10W10W20W10W12L00D01L00DH·IMI04/04A·KEŞ12/04H·KAP17/04A·SUM25/04H·ZIR03/05A·TUR09/05H·FK 16/05A·ARA23/05H·İRƏ14/09A·DIF21/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.930.730.400.67
vs Stronger (28)0.680.680.930.710.430.64
vs Similar (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D01L10W00D00D13L10W00DA·ZIR29/03H·TUR05/04A·FK 11/04H·ARA17/04A·MIN04/05H·QAR09/05A·SƏB16/05H·NEF23/05A·DIF14/09H·IMI20/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.730.800.400.33
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.003.001.000.00
vs Similar (21)0.330.620.450.730.200.50
vs Weaker (7)1.140.141.670.330.750.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W10W10W13L10W02L01L00DH·IMI04/04A·KEŞ12/04H·KAP17/04A·SUM25/04H·ZIR03/05A·TUR09/05H·FK 16/05A·ARA23/05H·İRƏ14/09A·DIF21/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.971.200.530.731.40
vs Stronger (28)0.931.001.210.570.641.43
vs Similar (2)1.500.501.000.002.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W03L11D10W00D00D11D20W10WA·ZIR29/03H·TUR05/04A·FK 11/04H·ARA17/04A·MIN04/05H·QAR09/05A·SƏB16/05H·NEF23/05A·DIF14/09H·IMI20/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.831.270.730.730.93
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.050.811.550.550.501.10
vs Weaker (7)0.860.860.331.331.250.50
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ZAQ wins
1
Draws
1
MOI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zaqatala vs MOIK · H/A from ZAQ
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/23HZAQ Vs MOIK2-2
24/08/22AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-0

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/23ADifai Ağsu Vs ZAQ0-0
14/09/23HZAQ Vs İrəvan0-2
23/05/23AAraz Vs ZAQ2-0
16/05/23HZAQ Vs FK Qəbələ II2-2
09/05/23ATuran II Vs ZAQ3-2
03/05/23HZAQ Vs Zira II3-0
25/04/23ASumqayıt II Vs ZAQ0-2
17/04/23HZAQ Vs Kapaz II2-0
12/04/23AKeşlə II Vs ZAQ1-2
04/04/23HZAQ Vs Imisli FK3-1

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/23HMOI Vs Imisli FK1-0
14/09/23ADifai Ağsu Vs MOI0-3
23/05/23HMOI Vs Neftçi II2-4
16/05/23ASəbail II Vs MOI0-0
09/05/23HMOI Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-0
04/05/23AMingəçevir Vs MOI0-2
17/04/23HMOI Vs Araz1-2
11/04/23AFK Qəbələ II Vs MOI3-0
05/04/23HMOI Vs Turan II2-0
29/03/23AZira II Vs MOI1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD1.50
HomeWWWDL2.07
AwayWWLLD0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%60%27%
AVG goals3.303.403.20
Over 1.5 %93%93%93%
Over 2.5 %67%67%67%
Over 3.5 %43%47%40%
Scored1.632.131.13
Conceded1.671.272.07
BTTS67%67%67%
Clean Sheet20%27%13%
Corners---
Cards---
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.63
HomeWLDLW1.87
AwayDLWDW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%60%33%
AVG goals2.973.532.40
Over 1.5 %80%87%73%
Over 2.5 %60%73%47%
Over 3.5 %33%47%20%
Scored1.572.001.13
Conceded1.401.531.27
BTTS50%67%33%
Clean Sheet37%33%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches