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Zaqatala vs MOIK Prediction & Stats

Date: 04/11/2026
Time: 15:00
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Vs
24%
26%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with MOIK expected to edge Zaqatala 52% to 22% for home victory and 26% for a draw. The average goal tally sits at 2.9, so a 2-goal total is the most likely outcome, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% chance. Zaqatala, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.92 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, while MOIK, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Under 5.5 (93.0%), Away +2 handicap (91.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.7%) and Under 4.5 (84.0%). Both sides finish the week on a win, with Zaqatala’s last match a 2-1 victory over Safa Baku and MOIK a 4-0 triumph over Difai Afsu.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zaqatala win
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MOIK win
49.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-700D10W23L12L01L17L03L03L21W22DA·ŞIM19/03H·DIF02/04A·CƏB08/04A·MOI15/04H·ŞAH22/04A·MIN29/04H·SƏB06/05A·BAK15/05H·SAF22/05A·MIN04/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.671.001.790.941.56
vs Stronger (22)0.951.500.921.831.001.10
vs Similar (4)1.253.002.003.001.003.00
vs Weaker (4)0.751.251.000.000.671.67
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D21W13L21W03L01L11D13L40W01LA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.571.291.001.062.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.601.870.331.000.782.44
vs Weaker (15)1.731.272.001.001.431.57
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
9.1%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
7.1%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
5.6%
1-3
5.5%
Zaqatala goals ↓
MOIK goals →
01234
07.1%9.1%8.7%4.9%2.1%
15.6%12%9.6%5.5%2.3%
23.7%6.3%5.4%3.0%1.3%
31.4%2.4%2.0%1.1%0.5%
40.4%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaqatala goals (down), columns = MOIK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Zaqatala is 0.19 points worse than MOIK in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Zaqatala is 0.22 goals worse than MOIK in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Zaqatala is 0.15 goals worse than MOIK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.48).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zaqatala or Draw
50.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Zaqatala + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala or MOIK
73.7%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Zaqatala + MOIK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or MOIK
76.2%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
50%
covers Draw + MOIK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5
Over
81.7%
Under
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5
Over
24.2%
Under
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 3.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Zaqatala, so a minus line means Zaqatala give that many goals of a start and MOIK receive them. At -1, Zaqatala must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zaqatala win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala -2
2.9%
Draw -2
6.7%
MOIK +2
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala -1
9.6%
Draw -1
14.2%
MOIK +1
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala +1
50.1%
Draw +1
22.3%
MOIK -1
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala +2
72.4%
Draw +2
15.6%
MOIK -2
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L12L00D02L02L00D01L11DA·ŞIM19/03H·DIF02/04A·CƏB08/04A·MOI15/04H·ŞAH22/04A·MIN29/04H·SƏB06/05A·BAK15/05H·SAF22/05A·MIN04/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.670.430.930.310.44
vs Stronger (22)0.320.640.250.920.400.30
vs Similar (4)0.751.252.002.000.331.00
vs Weaker (4)0.250.251.000.000.000.33
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D02L21W00D00D01L03L20W01LA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.640.360.381.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.270.600.170.170.330.89
vs Weaker (15)0.730.801.000.500.431.14
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D10W22D00D01L15L01L03L20W11DA·ŞIM19/03H·DIF02/04A·CƏB08/04A·MOI15/04H·ŞAH22/04A·MIN29/04H·SƏB06/05A·BAK15/05H·SAF22/05A·MIN04/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.000.570.860.621.12
vs Stronger (22)0.640.860.670.920.600.80
vs Similar (4)0.501.750.001.000.672.00
vs Weaker (4)0.501.000.000.000.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W11D00D03L01L10W10W20W00DA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.870.640.640.691.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.331.270.170.830.441.56
vs Weaker (15)1.000.471.000.501.000.43
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.2%-------
Under 6.597.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.3%-------
Under 5.593.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals90.7%-------
Away +2 handicap90.4%-------
Home under 2.5 goals89.7%-------
Under 4.584.6%-------
Away over 0.5 goals81.7%-------
Over 1.578.3%-------
Draw or Away76.2%-------
Away +1 handicap76.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals75.8%-------
Home or Away73.7%-------
Home +2 handicap72.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
ZAQ wins
1
Draws
5
MOI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zaqatala vs MOIK · H/A from ZAQ
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/26AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-1
17/12/25HZAQ Vs MOIK1-3
25/09/25AMOIK Vs ZAQ0-1
02/05/25HZAQ Vs MOIK1-0
28/02/25AMOIK Vs ZAQ0-0
27/11/24AMOIK Vs ZAQ3-1
29/03/24HZAQ Vs MOIK0-1
13/12/23AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-1

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/26AMingəçevir Vs ZAQ2-2
22/05/26HZAQ Vs Safa Baku2-1
15/05/26ABaku Sportinq Vs ZAQ3-0
06/05/26HZAQ Vs Səbail0-3
29/04/26AMingəçevir Vs ZAQ7-1
22/04/26HZAQ Vs Şahdağ0-1
15/04/26AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-1
08/04/26ACəbrayıl Vs ZAQ3-2
02/04/26HZAQ Vs Difai Ağsu1-0
19/03/26AŞimal Vs ZAQ0-0

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HMOI Vs Şahdağ0-1
21/05/26HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu4-0
15/05/26AMingəçevir Vs MOI3-1
06/05/26AŞimal Vs MOI1-1
29/04/26HMOI Vs Şahdağ0-1
22/04/26ASafa Baku Vs MOI3-0
15/04/26HMOI Vs Zaqatala2-1
08/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MOI3-1
02/04/26HMOI Vs Cəbrayıl2-1
18/03/26ASəbail Vs MOI2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.04
HomeLWLLW1.40
AwayLLLLD0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%40%12%
AVG goals2.642.842.44
Over 1.5 %64%72%56%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.081.320.84
Conceded1.561.521.60
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.18
HomeWWLWL1.60
AwayDLLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%48%16%
AVG goals2.702.722.68
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.141.400.88
Conceded1.561.321.80
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvanKarvan13
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.00.0
-
2CəbrayılCəbrayıl13
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3ŞahdağŞahdağ13
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir11
0%
1.0
22+0
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala11
0%
1.0
22+0
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
6SəbailSəbail11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.0
-
7Xankəndi FKXankəndi FK11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
8ŞimalŞimal10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
9MOIKMOIK10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
10Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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