PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Zaqatala vs Safa Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2026
Time: 11:30
Final 2-1
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Vs
17%
24%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Safa Baku
Safa Baku
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Zaqatala a 17% win probability against Safa Baku in the Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta on 2026-05-22, with 24% for the draw and 59% for Safa Baku. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (80%).

Results analysis

Zaqatala finished 2-1 against Safa Baku (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 17% home win, 24% draw and 59% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (80%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zaqatala win✓ Hit
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku win✗ Miss
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-734L01L00D10W23L12L01L17L03L03LH·ŞIM05/03A·CƏB13/03A·ŞIM19/03H·DIF02/04A·CƏB08/04A·MOI15/04H·ŞAH22/04A·MIN29/04H·SƏB06/05A·BAK15/05
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.601.141.500.811.69
vs Stronger (20)1.151.401.301.401.001.40
vs Similar (6)0.502.500.672.330.332.67
vs Weaker (4)0.751.251.000.000.671.67
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W20W10W25L21W00D30W00D00D10WH·ŞAH05/03A·ŞIM11/03H·ŞAH18/03A·MIN03/04H·SƏB09/04A·BAK16/04H·MOI22/04H·ŞIM29/04A·DIF06/05H·CƏB15/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.960.731.790.712.170.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (26)1.960.731.790.712.170.75
Clean sheet %54% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
0-2
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.6%
0-3
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
1-3
6.4%
2-1 ✓
5.0%
Zaqatala goals ↓
Safa Baku goals →
01234
06.5%9.6%10%6.6%3.2%
14.3%11%9.9%6.4%3.1%
22.6%5.0%4.8%3.1%1.5%
30.8%1.6%1.5%1.0%0.5%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaqatala goals (down), columns = Safa Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Zaqatala is 1.07 points worse than Safa Baku in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 2.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Zaqatala is 0.93 goals worse than Safa Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.93).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Zaqatala is 0.85 goals worse than Safa Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D00D00D00D01L12L00D02L02L00DH·ŞIM05/03A·CƏB13/03A·ŞIM19/03H·DIF02/04A·CƏB08/04A·MOI15/04H·ŞAH22/04A·MIN29/04H·SƏB06/05A·BAK15/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.600.430.710.250.50
vs Stronger (20)0.350.500.300.500.400.50
vs Similar (6)0.331.170.671.670.000.67
vs Weaker (4)0.250.251.000.000.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D10W01L00D00D00D00D00D10WH·ŞAH05/03A·ŞIM11/03H·ŞAH18/03A·MIN03/04H·SƏB09/04A·BAK16/04H·MOI22/04H·ŞIM29/04A·DIF06/05H·CƏB15/05
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.190.640.210.830.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (26)0.730.190.640.210.830.17
Clean sheet %85% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (25)
€4m
SƏB (30)
€0m
MIN (20)
€0m
ZAQ (23)
€0m
CƏB (23)
€0m
Zaqatala's squad is €4m less valuable than Safa Baku's (€0m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Zaqatala vs Safa Baku · H/A from ZAQ
DateH/AGameScore
11/12/25ASafa Baku Vs ZAQ1-1
18/09/25HZAQ Vs Safa Baku0-4

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26ABaku Sportinq Vs ZAQ3-0
06/05/26HZAQ Vs Səbail0-3
29/04/26AMingəçevir Vs ZAQ7-1
22/04/26HZAQ Vs Şahdağ0-1
15/04/26AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-1
08/04/26ACəbrayıl Vs ZAQ3-2
02/04/26HZAQ Vs Difai Ağsu1-0
19/03/26AŞimal Vs ZAQ0-0
13/03/26ACəbrayıl Vs ZAQ1-0
05/03/26HZAQ Vs Şimal3-4

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26HSB Vs Cəbrayıl1-0
06/05/26ADifai Ağsu Vs SB0-0
29/04/26HSB Vs Şimal0-0
22/04/26HSB Vs MOIK3-0
16/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs SB0-0
09/04/26HSB Vs Səbail2-1
03/04/26AMingəçevir Vs SB5-2
18/03/26HSB Vs Şahdağ1-0
11/03/26AŞimal Vs SB0-2
05/03/26HSB Vs Şahdağ2-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.08
HomeWLWLL1.46
AwayDLLLL0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%42%15%
AVG goals2.662.792.54
Over 1.5 %64%71%58%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored1.121.380.88
Conceded1.541.421.65
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Safa Baku
Safa Baku
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDW2.19
HomeWWWDW2.14
AwayWWLDD2.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%57%67%
AVG goals2.692.502.92
Over 1.5 %73%79%67%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %27%21%33%
Scored1.961.792.17
Conceded0.730.710.75
BTTS46%57%33%
Clean Sheet54%43%67%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches