The model picks an away win for Səbail, with a 51% chance, slightly higher than the 25% draw and 24% home win probabilities. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.3% probability, which aligns with the balanced nature of the match.
Zaqatala, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.92 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Səbail, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. These figures suggest Səbail will exploit the defensive frailties at home.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Under 5.5 (90.3%), Away +2 handicap (89.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.8%), and Away over 0.5 goals (84.7%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no additional commentary is attached.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zaqatala win
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Səbail win
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zaqatala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
1.00
1.79
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (22)
0.95
1.50
0.92
1.83
1.00
1.10
vs Similar (4)
1.25
3.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.90
1.62
0.81
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.67
1.22
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.78
2.25
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.0%
Under 1.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.0%
Under 2.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.0%
0-1
7.6%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
Zaqatala goals ↓
Səbail goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
7.6%
8.0%
4.9%
2.3%
1
4.6%
12%
9.7%
6.0%
2.8%
2
3.4%
6.4%
5.9%
3.6%
1.7%
3
1.4%
2.6%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zaqatala goals (down), columns = Səbail goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Zaqatala is 0.81 points worse than Səbail in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Zaqatala is 0.70 goals worse than Səbail in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Zaqatala is 0.85 goals worse than Səbail in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zaqatala or Draw
48.7%
Avg Implied -
24%
25%
51%
covers Zaqatala + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala or Səbail
75.2%
Avg Implied -
24%
25%
51%
covers Zaqatala + Səbail
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Səbail
76.2%
Avg Implied -
24%
25%
51%
covers Draw + Səbail
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5
Over
84.3%
Under
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5
Over
55.2%
Under
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 3.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zaqatala, so a minus line means Zaqatala give that many goals of a start and Səbail receive them. At -1, Zaqatala must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zaqatala win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala -2
3.2%
Draw -2
6.8%
Səbail +2
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala -1
10.0%
Draw -1
13.8%
Səbail +1
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala +1
48.7%
Draw +1
21.7%
Səbail -1
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zaqatala)
Zaqatala +2
70.4%
Draw +2
16.0%
Səbail -2
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zaqatala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.43
0.93
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
0.64
0.25
0.92
0.40
0.30
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.25
2.00
2.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.69
0.12
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.27
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.22
1.00
0.00
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zaqatala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.57
0.86
0.62
1.12
vs Stronger (22)
0.64
0.86
0.67
0.92
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.69
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.67
1.11
1.00
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Zaqatala's squad is €1m less valuable than Səbail's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Zaqatala and Səbail have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Zaqatala and Səbail have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Zaqatala and Səbail have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Cəbrayıl
Şahdağ
Mingəçevir
Xankəndi FK
Şimal
MOIK
Baku Sportinq