This high-scoring match between Zemplín Michalovce and Žilina is expected to produce an average of 3.4 goals. Žilina's recent form has been a concern, coming off a defeat, but their away scoring has been impressive against weaker opponents, averaging 2.33 goals. In contrast, Zemplín Michalovce's home scoring has struggled, averaging just 1.3 goals. The model predicts Žilina to win, with a 51% chance, while the home win percentage stands at 25% and the draw percentage at 23%. The model's selection is the away win. Žilina's away scoring has been effective, but they also concede an average of 1.83 goals. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 86.4% chance, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 89.2% chance. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.2% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends their run of three consecutive wins for Žilina, who have now taken the lead in the Slovakia: Super Liga. The final score was 0-1, with Žilina emerging victorious. The model's selection, Žilina to win away, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 51%. Žilina was the pre-match favourite.
Žilina's selection, Over 1.5, had a probability of 86.4%, but missed, while the model's call was correct. The model expected a total of 3.4 goals, but the actual total was 1.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zemplín Michalovce win✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.47
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.64
Betano
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.70
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.88
Dafabet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Žilina win✓ Hit
51.5%
Avg Implied 48.9% · @ 1.87
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
10Bet
1.88
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zemplín Michalovce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.63
1.46
1.69
1.24
1.59
vs Stronger (18)
1.33
1.67
1.43
1.71
1.27
1.64
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.58
1.50
1.67
1.17
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Žilina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žilina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.23
2.00
1.12
1.46
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.20
2.38
1.12
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
1.25
1.88
1.12
1.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zemplín Michalovce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.4%
@ 1.15+6.0%
Under 1.5
13.6%
@ 4.75-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.04
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.4%
@ 1.53+5.8%
Under 2.5
33.6%
@ 2.34-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.44
Unibet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.6%
@ 2.33+4.5%
Under 3.5
55.4%
@ 1.56-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.37
Under
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.1%
@ 1.50+4.3%
No
33.9%
@ 2.42-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
888Sport
1.50
Betfair
1.50
No
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.47
BetVictor
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
888Sport
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 7.07+3.8%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.79+3.6%
0-2
6.8%@ 10.37+2.4%
2-2
6.5%@ 11.09+2.5%
2-1
6.4%@ 11.11+2.4%
1-3
6.3%@ 12.14+2.7%
0-1 ✓
5.7%@ 9.14+0.8%
0-3
4.6%@ 16.26+1.8%
Zemplín Michalovce goals ↓
Žilina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
5.7%
6.8%
4.6%
2.3%
1
3.6%
10%
9.4%
6.3%
3.2%
2
3.2%
6.4%
6.5%
4.4%
2.2%
3
1.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zemplín Michalovce goals (down), columns = Žilina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Slovan Bratislava
2.12
Dunajska Streda
1.81
Spartak Trnava
1.75
Žilina
1.62
Zemplín Michalovce
1.38
FK Košice
1.34
Podbrezová
1.31
AS Trencin
1.31
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.18
Skalica
1.09
Ružomberok
1.09
Komárno
1.00
Zemplín Michalovce is 0.25 points worse than Žilina in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slovan Bratislava
1.94
Žilina
1.84
Podbrezová
1.72
Dunajska Streda
1.72
FK Košice
1.59
Spartak Trnava
1.59
Zemplín Michalovce
1.38
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19
Skalica
1.06
Komárno
1.06
AS Trencin
1.06
Ružomberok
1.06
Zemplín Michalovce is 0.47 goals worse than Žilina in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunajska Streda
1.06
Spartak Trnava
1.16
Slovan Bratislava
1.16
Žilina
1.28
Skalica
1.41
Komárno
1.44
Ružomberok
1.56
Podbrezová
1.59
AS Trencin
1.59
Zemplín Michalovce
1.62
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.68
FK Košice
1.72
Zemplín Michalovce is 0.34 goals worse than Žilina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Slovan Bratislava
59%
Spartak Trnava
56%
Dunajska Streda
53%
Zemplín Michalovce
52%
Podbrezová
51%
AS Trencin
51%
Žilina
50%
FK Košice
49%
Komárno
48%
Ružomberok
43%
Skalica
42%
Zemplín Michalovce is 1.6 percentage points better than Žilina in terms of average possession (52% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Zemplín Michalovce
For 5.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Žilina
For 4.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 15.3 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zemplín Michalovce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.4
10.0
2.9
3.1
2.7
26.4
27.6
25.1
vs Stronger (22)
10.1
10.8
9.6
2.2
2.3
2.1
26.2
28.2
24.9
vs Similar (28)
10.3
10.2
10.3
3.4
3.6
3.2
26.5
27.4
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
59%
53%
42%
45%
39%
85%
82%
88%
% under line
44%
41%
47%
58%
55%
61%
15%
18%
12%
This opponent (Žilina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žilina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.9
10.0
1.8
1.9
1.6
25.9
24.1
28.3
vs Stronger (5)
7.0
9.0
6.3
2.8
2.5
3.0
30.5
29.0
31.0
vs Similar (27)
9.8
9.7
10.2
1.5
1.9
1.0
23.3
21.9
26.5
vs Weaker (18)
11.5
10.5
12.5
1.9
1.9
1.9
27.9
27.8
28.0
% over line
56%
57%
55%
26%
27%
25%
80%
71%
91%
% under line
44%
43%
45%
74%
73%
75%
20%
29%
9%
This opponent (Zemplín Michalovce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AS Trencin
11.2
Podbrezová
10.6
FK Košice
10.5
Ružomberok
10.2
Dukla Banská Bystrica
10.2
Slovan Bratislava
10.2
Zemplín Michalovce
10.0
Dunajska Streda
9.9
Komárno
9.8
Skalica
9.7
Žilina
9.6
Spartak Trnava
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Trnava
5.1
Slovan Bratislava
4.9
Dunajska Streda
4.9
Skalica
4.8
Podbrezová
4.7
AS Trencin
4.7
Komárno
4.5
Zemplín Michalovce
4.4
Ružomberok
4.4
FK Košice
4.2
Žilina
3.9
Dukla Banská Bystrica
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Spartak Trnava
28.1
Skalica
27.2
Komárno
27.0
Zemplín Michalovce
26.8
Podbrezová
26.5
Žilina
26.3
Dunajska Streda
26.2
Ružomberok
25.9
AS Trencin
25.5
Slovan Bratislava
25.4
FK Košice
24.0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.67-3.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
@ 2.07+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.3%
Under 3.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
88.0%
Under 21.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zemplín Michalovce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.54
0.85
0.41
0.65
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
0.78
0.29
0.86
0.55
0.73
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.67
0.83
0.83
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Žilina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žilina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
1.06
0.65
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.57
0.14
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.67
1.25
0.88
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zemplín Michalovce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zemplín Michalovce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zemplín Michalovce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zemplín Michalovce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žilina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žilina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žilina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zemplín Michalovce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.92
0.85
0.82
0.94
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
0.89
1.14
0.86
0.73
0.91
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
0.67
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Žilina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žilina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
0.94
0.47
1.08
1.08
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.87
1.38
0.62
0.71
1.14
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.62
0.25
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zemplín Michalovce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zemplín Michalovce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zemplín Michalovce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zemplín Michalovce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žilina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žilina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žilina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.4%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.5%
1.42
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
-
+6.4%
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (29)
€44m
DS (35)
€26m
ŽIL (38)
€18m
AT (38)
€8m
POD (32)
€8m
ST (28)
€7m
FK (33)
€7m
RUŽ (33)
€7m
ZM (33)
€6m
SKA (31)
€4m
KOM (28)
€3m
DBB (24)
€3m
Zemplín Michalovce's squad is €12m less valuable than Žilina's (€6m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (13)
€26m
DS (10)
€12m
ŽIL (15)
€5m
POD (13)
€3m
AT (17)
€3m
ST (10)
€3m
ZM (11)
€2m
FK (8)
€2m
RUŽ (11)
€1m
KOM (10)
€1m
DBB (7)
€1m
SKA (9)
€1m
Zemplín Michalovce's attack is €2m less valuable than Žilina's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DS (12)
€7m
SB (5)
€6m
ŽIL (4)
€4m
POD (7)
€2m
AT (6)
€2m
FK (9)
€2m
ZM (9)
€2m
ST (6)
€1m
RUŽ (5)
€1m
KOM (7)
€1m
SKA (7)
€1m
DBB (6)
€1m
Zemplín Michalovce's midfield is €2m less valuable than Žilina's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (11)
€12m
ŽIL (19)
€9m
DS (13)
€7m
RUŽ (17)
€4m
AT (15)
€4m
FK (16)
€3m
POD (12)
€3m
ST (12)
€3m
SKA (15)
€2m
ZM (13)
€2m
KOM (11)
€1m
DBB (11)
€1m
Zemplín Michalovce's defence is €7m less valuable than Žilina's (€2m vs €9m).
Slovakia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Spartak Trnava
Slovan Bratislava
Dunajska Streda
Podbrezová
Skalica
FK Košice
Dukla Banská Bystrica
AS Trencin
Komárno
Ružomberok