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Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs ML Vitebsk Result & Analysis

Date: 14/10/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 4-1
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Vs
23%
21%
57%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zhodino Yuzhnoe win✓ Hit
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk win✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L12L21W04L21W02L12L22D02LA·BUM05/08A·VOL11/08H·FC 16/08A·NIV27/08H·FC 02/09A·LID09/09H·ARS17/09A·LOK24/09H·BAR01/10A·SLO08/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.441.761.501.671.381.85
vs Stronger (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
vs Similar (16)1.311.751.501.751.121.75
vs Weaker (8)1.621.751.501.501.752.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W51W52W42W31W21W12L20W42W04LH·BAR04/08H·SLO11/08A·OST19/08H·MOL27/08A·SHA02/09H·OSI10/09A·ORS16/09H·BUM23/09A·VOL01/10H·FC 07/10
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.571.572.311.502.861.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)2.571.572.311.502.861.64
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhodino Yuzhnoe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%06%116%220%320%415%520%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.8%
Under 1.5
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.7%
Under 2.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.4%
No
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.7%
1-1
8.0%
1-3
7.0%
2-2
6.6%
0-2
5.8%
2-1
5.5%
2-3
5.3%
0-3
4.7%
Zhodino Yuzhnoe goals ↓
ML Vitebsk goals →
01234
02.8%4.1%5.8%4.7%2.8%
12.3%8.0%8.7%7.0%4.2%
22.3%5.5%6.6%5.3%3.1%
31.1%2.7%3.3%2.6%1.6%
40.4%1.0%1.2%1.0%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zhodino Yuzhnoe goals (down), columns = ML Vitebsk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
Zhodino Yuzhnoe is 0.47 points worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.91).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
Zhodino Yuzhnoe is 0.69 goals worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 2.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
Zhodino Yuzhnoe and ML Vitebsk are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L12L01L01L00D01L01L10W11D01LA·BUM05/08A·VOL11/08H·FC 16/08A·NIV27/08H·FC 02/09A·LID09/09H·ARS17/09A·LOK24/09H·BAR01/10A·SLO08/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.000.580.580.621.38
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.560.940.620.620.501.25
vs Weaker (8)0.751.120.500.501.001.75
Clean sheet %32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W31W30W21W00D20W10W20W12L01LH·BAR04/08H·SLO11/08A·OST19/08H·MOL27/08A·SHA02/09H·OSI10/09A·ORS16/09H·BUM23/09A·VOL01/10H·FC 07/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.771.060.621.210.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.130.771.060.621.210.93
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhodino Yuzhnoe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zhodino Yuzhnoe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhodino Yuzhnoe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhodino Yuzhnoe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D11D20W04L20W01L02L11D01LA·BUM05/08A·VOL11/08H·FC 16/08A·NIV27/08H·FC 02/09A·LID09/09H·ARS17/09A·LOK24/09H·BAR01/10A·SLO08/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.840.760.921.080.770.46
vs Stronger (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.750.810.881.120.620.50
vs Weaker (8)0.880.621.001.000.750.25
Clean sheet %52% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W20W22D21W31W01L02L00D30W03LH·BAR04/08H·SLO11/08A·OST19/08H·MOL27/08A·SHA02/09H·OSI10/09A·ORS16/09H·BUM23/09A·VOL01/10H·FC 07/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.801.250.881.640.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.430.801.250.881.640.71
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Zhodino Yuzhnoe) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zhodino Yuzhnoe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhodino Yuzhnoe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zhodino Yuzhnoe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.574.7%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes71.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ZY wins
1
Draws
0
MV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zhodino Yuzhnoe vs ML Vitebsk · H/A from ZY
DateH/AGameScore
11/06/23AML Vitebsk Vs ZY2-2

Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/23ASlonim Vs ZY2-0
01/10/23HZY Vs Baranovichi2-2
24/09/23ALokomotiv Gomel Vs ZY2-1
17/09/23HZY Vs Arsenal (Belarus)0-2
09/09/23ALida Vs ZY1-2
02/09/23HZY Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev0-4
27/08/23ANiva Vs ZY1-2
16/08/23HZY Vs FC Vitebsk1-2
11/08/23AVolna Vs ZY2-1
05/08/23ABumprom Vs ZY3-2

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HMV Vs FC Vitebsk0-4
01/10/23AVolna Vs MV2-4
23/09/23HMV Vs Bumprom2-0
16/09/23AOrsha Vs MV2-1
10/09/23HMV Vs Osipovichy2-1
02/09/23AShakhtyor Petrikov Vs MV1-3
27/08/23HMV Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 44-2
19/08/23AOstrovets FC Vs MV2-5
11/08/23HMV Vs Slonim5-1
04/08/23HMV Vs Baranovichi5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.12
HomeDLLLD1.08
AwayLWWLL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%25%31%
AVG goals3.203.173.23
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %68%67%69%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored1.441.501.38
Conceded1.761.671.85
BTTS68%58%77%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners---
Cards---
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.80
HomeWWWWL1.88
AwayLWWLW1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%54%54%
AVG goals3.743.653.83
Over 1.5 %84%88%79%
Over 2.5 %74%69%79%
Over 3.5 %64%65%62%
Scored2.242.152.33
Conceded1.501.501.50
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet24%19%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)3281
81%
2.5
8630+56
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.70.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3273
69%
2.3
7524+51
3.1
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.8
-
3FC VitebskFC Vitebsk3273
72%
2.3
6822+46
2.8
72%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2012.10.7
-
4Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3262
59%
1.9
5540+15
3.0
88%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.2
-
5ML VitebskML Vitebsk3261
59%
1.9
8452+32
4.2
94%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.61.6
-
6BaranovichiBaranovichi3248
44%
1.5
4649-3
3.0
81%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.5
-
7Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe3246
41%
1.4
6252+10
3.6
88%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
8VolnaVolna3243
38%
1.3
4149-8
2.8
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.5
-
9LidaLida3241
38%
1.3
4448-4
2.9
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.5
-
10Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43241
34%
1.3
5156-5
3.3
88%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.8
-
11NivaNiva3241
38%
1.3
5366-13
3.7
88%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.72.1
-
12Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3239
31%
1.2
5462-8
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.9
-
13BumpromBumprom3238
31%
1.2
4562-17
3.3
88%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
14OrshaOrsha3231
25%
1.0
5062-12
3.5
88%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
15SlonimSlonim3222
16%
0.7
2663-37
2.8
62%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
16Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3222
19%
0.7
3372-39
3.3
81%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy325
3%
0.2
2185-64
3.3
84%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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