Zimbru’s recent three-game winning streak sets the tone for a home win, the model’s most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a lively affair, though the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% chance. Zimbru, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.12 conceded, while Dacia-Buiucani, on the road to stronger opponents, averages only 0.67 scored and 1.89 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 57% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 19% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99%), Away under 3.5 goals (98%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Home +2 handicap (93%), Under 5.5 (92.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.6%), and Home over 0.5 goals (84.9%). All figures are presented as percentages, with each selection noted exactly once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru win
56.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani win
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.03
2.44
1.12
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.21
1.88
1.12
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.94
0.88
3.00
1.12
2.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.83
1.00
2.06
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
2.05
0.64
2.18
0.67
1.89
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.40
1.80
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.8%
1-0
9.3%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.3%
3-0
6.2%
1-2
5.3%
Zimbru goals ↓
Dacia-Buiucani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.5%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.3%
12%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.8%
9.9%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.2%
6.3%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.9%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru goals (down), columns = Dacia-Buiucani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Zimbru is 0.56 points better than Dacia-Buiucani in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Zimbru is 1.33 goals better than Dacia-Buiucani in terms of goals scored per game (2.56 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Zimbru is 0.22 goals better than Dacia-Buiucani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zimbru or Draw
81.2%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
19%
covers Zimbru + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru or Dacia-Buiucani
75.7%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
19%
covers Zimbru + Dacia-Buiucani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dacia-Buiucani
43.1%
Avg Implied -
57%
24%
19%
covers Draw + Dacia-Buiucani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zimbru over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5
Over
63.7%
Under
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zimbru, so a minus line means Zimbru give that many goals of a start and Dacia-Buiucani receive them. At -1, Zimbru must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zimbru win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zimbru)
Zimbru -2
16.1%
Draw -2
17.8%
Dacia-Buiucani +2
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zimbru)
Zimbru -1
33.9%
Draw -1
23.0%
Dacia-Buiucani +1
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zimbru)
Zimbru +1
81.2%
Draw +1
11.8%
Dacia-Buiucani -1
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zimbru)
Zimbru +2
93.0%
Draw +2
5.1%
Dacia-Buiucani -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
0.88
0.31
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.25
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.19
1.12
0.38
1.12
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.95
0.27
1.00
0.22
0.89
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.56
0.81
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.79
1.25
0.88
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
0.69
1.88
0.75
1.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dacia-Buiucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.50
1.19
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (20)
0.40
1.10
0.36
1.18
0.44
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.90
0.80
1.20
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Zimbru's squad is €2m more valuable than Dacia-Buiucani's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Zimbru's attack is €1m more valuable than Dacia-Buiucani's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Zimbru and Dacia-Buiucani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Zimbru and Dacia-Buiucani have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
Sireți
CSF Bălți