This Moldovan Super Liga match between Zimbru and Milsami Orhei is shaping up to be an open and attacking contest, with the expected total number of goals standing at 3.2. Zimbru's recent form has been a concern, coming off a 1-2 defeat against Petrocub, but their home scoring has been impressive, averaging 2.07 goals per game against similar opponents. Milsami Orhei, meanwhile, have been struggling to concede, allowing just 1.12 goals per game away from home against similar opponents. The model's selection is the Home win, with a 58% chance of success, ahead of a 23% draw probability and a 19% chance of an Away win. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.3% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Zimbru's run, as they secured a 4-2 victory over Milsami Orhei, with the final scoreline aligning with the model's most likely outcome of 2-1. The model correctly predicted a home win, which held a pre-match probability of 57%. This selection was the only one that made sense, given the pre-match favourites. The model's call was correct, as the home team's recent form, including a win over Milsami Orhei, suggested a strong performance. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also came in, with an 83% probability, and the actual score was 4-2.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru win✓ Hit
57.0%
Avg Implied 55.5% · @ 1.63
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
10Bet
1.67
888Sport
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.57
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Dafabet
3.75
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.54
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied 19.2% · @ 4.71
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.99
Marathonbet
4.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.03
2.18
1.06
1.92
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.29
1.14
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.75
0.94
2.78
1.11
2.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.30
1.06
1.06
1.36
1.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.50
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (10)
0.60
2.30
0.67
1.83
0.50
3.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.80
1.50
0.75
2.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
@ 1.23+9.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
@ 3.50-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
888Sport
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.6%
@ 1.80+9.4%
Under 2.5
39.4%
@ 1.89-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.3%
@ 2.98+7.9%
Under 3.5
61.7%
@ 1.30-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.00
Marathonbet
2.97
1xBet
2.97
Under
888Sport
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
@ 1.78+8.1%
No
40.6%
@ 1.88-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
No
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 6.94+4.8%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.50+4.4%
2-0
8.8%@ 7.12+3.0%
1-0
7.8%@ 6.31+1.2%
3-1
6.6%@ 12.00+3.2%
3-0
5.9%@ 11.25+2.2%
2-2
5.5%@ 14.75+2.7%
1-2
5.5%@ 14.00+2.5%
Zimbru goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.9%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.8%
11%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.9%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.9%
6.6%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.0%
3.3%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Zimbru is 1.00 points better than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Zimbru is 1.67 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (2.56 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Zimbru is 0.44 goals better than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zimbru or Draw✓ Hit
80.3%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers Zimbru + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru or Milsami Orhei✓ Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers Zimbru + Milsami Orhei
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Milsami Orhei✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers Draw + Milsami Orhei
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.76
0.47
0.85
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.90
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.40
0.62
0.25
1.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.63
1.41
0.59
1.08
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
0.69
1.78
0.67
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.56
0.69
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.40
0.33
1.17
0.50
1.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.40
0.88
0.50
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.0%
1.23
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-
-
+9.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Zimbru and Milsami Orhei have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Zimbru's attack is €1m more valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Zimbru and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Zimbru and Milsami Orhei have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Sireți
CSF Bălți