Zimbru’s strong home form and the model’s 70 % chance of a home win make them clear favourites, especially as the model rates the away side’s performance at a weaker venue as a major weakness. The expected total of 3.9 goals points to a high-scoring affair, yet the most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Zimbru, with an 8.9 % probability. Zimbru averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.12 conceded at home against weaker opponents, while Politehnica UTM averages only 1.22 scored and 2.11 conceded away against stronger teams. The model’s suggested picks include an 96.9 % chance of away under 3.5 goals, a 95.6 % chance of under 7.5, a 94.9 % chance of home +2 handicap, a 93.4 % chance of home over 0.5 goals, a 90.6 % chance of over 1.5, a 90.1 % chance of under 6.5, an 88.7 % chance of away under 2.5 goals, and an 86.8 % chance of home or draw. The probabilities for the match outcome are 70 % home win, 17 % draw, and 13 % away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru win
69.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM win
13.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.03
2.44
1.12
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.21
1.88
1.12
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.94
0.88
3.00
1.12
2.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.06
1.19
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
2.21
1.38
1.88
1.17
2.67
vs Similar (14)
2.43
1.14
2.86
0.57
2.00
1.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.4%
Under 1.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.1%
Under 2.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.9%
Under 3.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.7%
No
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.9%
3-1
8.0%
2-0
7.7%
1-1
7.3%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
5.4%
2-2
5.2%
1-0
5.0%
Zimbru goals ↓
Politehnica UTM goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
1.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
1
5.0%
7.3%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
2
7.7%
8.9%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.9%
8.0%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
4
4.7%
5.4%
3.2%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru goals (down), columns = Politehnica UTM goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Zimbru is 0.78 points better than Politehnica UTM in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Zimbru is 0.89 goals better than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals scored per game (2.56 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Zimbru is 0.22 goals better than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zimbru or Draw
86.7%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
13%
covers Zimbru + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru or Politehnica UTM
82.6%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
13%
covers Zimbru + Politehnica UTM
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Politehnica UTM
30.7%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
13%
covers Draw + Politehnica UTM
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zimbru over/under 0.5
Over
93.3%
Under
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 3.5
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zimbru, so a minus line means Zimbru give that many goals of a start and Politehnica UTM receive them. At -1, Zimbru must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zimbru win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zimbru)
Zimbru -2
29.7%
Draw -2
19.6%
Politehnica UTM +2
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zimbru)
Zimbru -1
49.3%
Draw -1
20.0%
Politehnica UTM +1
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zimbru)
Zimbru +1
86.7%
Draw +1
8.2%
Politehnica UTM -1
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zimbru)
Zimbru +2
94.9%
Draw +2
3.6%
Politehnica UTM -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
0.88
0.31
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.25
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.19
1.12
0.38
1.12
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.19
0.69
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.00
0.75
1.12
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.36
1.71
0.29
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.5%
Under 0.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.9%
Under 1.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
Under 2.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HT
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HT
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.56
0.81
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.79
1.25
0.88
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
0.69
1.88
0.75
1.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
0.88
0.50
0.93
1.43
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.62
0.75
0.67
1.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.79
1.14
0.29
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.7%
Under 0.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.1%
Under 1.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.0%
Under 2.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Zimbru's squad is €3m more valuable than Politehnica UTM's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Zimbru's attack is €2m more valuable than Politehnica UTM's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Zimbru and Politehnica UTM have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Zimbru and Politehnica UTM have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Milsami Orhei
Sireți
CSF Bălți