Zimbru are tipped to win at home, the model favouring a victory for the home side. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open game, with the most likely total of two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance. Zimbru’s home form shows they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Sheriff Tiraspol, playing away, averages only 0.67 goals scored and concedes 2.0 against comparable opposition. The probabilities for the match outcome are 51% home win, 28% draw, and 21% away win. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 75.6% and Over 1.5 goals at 72.6%. The recent form narrative is that Zimbru are on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Sheriff 2-1 last time, whereas Sheriff are coming off a defeat to Zimbru, losing 1-2.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Zimbru, failed to deliver, as Sheriff Tiraspol snatched a 1-2 away win, extending their recent form to a 3-game winning run. The model had tipped a home win with a 51% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: “Under 3.5” at 75.6% hit, and “Over 1.5” at 72.6% also hit. No other picks were listed. The match finished 1-2, confirming the away victory and underscoring the surprise that the pre-match favourite did not come through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol win✓ Hit
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.13
1.69
1.00
1.64
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.53
1.38
1.12
0.71
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.43
0.50
2.29
0.43
2.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.03
1.58
0.68
1.18
1.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (15)
0.87
1.20
1.00
0.67
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
0.54
2.11
0.44
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
11.6%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
6.4%
1-2 ✓
5.6%
3-0
5.3%
Zimbru goals ↓
Sheriff Tiraspol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
6.4%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.4%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.3%
4.9%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.1%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru goals (down), columns = Sheriff Tiraspol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Saxan
2.46
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.33
Speranis Nisporeni
2.25
Zimbru
1.88
Milsami Orhei
1.75
FC Stăuceni
1.73
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Victoria Bardar
1.25
CSF Bălți
1.17
Făleşti
0.75
Spartanii Selemet
0.67
Floreşti
0.04
FCM Ungheni
0.00
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
0.00
Zimbru is 0.46 points worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Saxan
3.69
Milsami Orhei
2.29
Zimbru
2.25
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.08
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.92
Petrocub
1.67
FC Stăuceni
1.55
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Făleşti
1.17
CSF Bălți
1.12
FCM Ungheni
1.00
Olimp Comrat
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Floreşti
0.12
Zimbru is 0.17 goals better than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 2.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50
Saxan
0.62
Dacia-Buiucani
0.92
Zimbru
1.04
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Petrocub
1.08
Speranis Nisporeni
1.25
FC Stăuceni
1.36
CSF Bălți
1.38
Victoria Bardar
1.92
Spartanii Selemet
2.29
Făleşti
2.67
Iskra
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Olimp Comrat
3.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
3.00
Floreşti
4.60
Zimbru is 0.54 goals worse than Sheriff Tiraspol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.75
0.38
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.73
0.62
0.50
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.36
1.00
0.29
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.79
0.26
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.53
0.67
0.33
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.15
0.89
0.11
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.94
0.62
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.80
0.75
0.62
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.14
1.29
0.14
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheriff Tiraspol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sheriff Tiraspol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.79
0.42
0.91
0.91
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.38
1.22
0.33
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheriff Tiraspol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheriff Tiraspol · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cristian Tovar29%
Amine Talal14%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabi Kiki75%
Amine Talal57%
Armel Zohouri50%
Cedric Badolo33%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Maksym Koval29%
Cristian Tovar29%
Jerome Mbekeli29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Alejandro Artunduaga17%
João Paulo17%
Ricardinho14%
David Ankeye0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ricardinho29%
David Ankeye14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Amine Talal0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Maksym Koval0%
Luvannor Henrique0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Jerome Mbekeli0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Talal29%
David Ankeye29%
Luvannor Henrique17%
Jerome Mbekeli14%
Gabi Kiki0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Ricardinho0%
Maksym Koval0%
Alejandro Artunduaga0%
Cristian Tovar0%
Cedric Badolo0%
João Paulo0%
Armel Zohouri0%
Berkay Vardar0%
Peter Oluwaseun Ademo0%
Munashe Garananga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
Zimbru's squad is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Zimbru and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Zimbru and Sheriff Tiraspol have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
Zimbru's defence is €2m less valuable than Sheriff Tiraspol's (€1m vs €3m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Milsami Orhei
Dacia-Buiucani
Petrocub
Saxan
CSF Bălți
FC Stăuceni
Spartanii Selemet
Victoria Bardar
Speranis Nisporeni
Făleşti
Iskra
Floreşti
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
FCM Ungheni
Olimp Comrat