Zimbru’s recent two-game winning streak and a 4-0 demolition of CSF Bălți set the tone for a home advantage that the model rates at 67 % for a win. The prediction model favours a Zimbru victory, reflecting the team’s solid home form: an average of 1.38 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly matched opponents. Sirești, while averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.86 conceded on the road, has struggled to break through, as shown by five straight draws and a 0-0 stalemate with Dacia-Buiucani. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively match, with the most probable total of three goals carrying a 22 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Zimbru, with a 10.1 % probability. Home win probability is 67 %, draw 20 %, away win 13 %. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 84.7 % chance.
Results analysis
Zimbru’s 2-game winning streak was halted as the match finished 1-1, a draw that shocked the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win with a 67 % probability, but that call was wrong. The only other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit its target with an 84.7 % chance. The game’s most likely score was 2-0, yet the final tally matched the 1-1 draw. Despite Zimbru’s recent form, the outcome was a surprise, and the model’s prediction missed the mark.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zimbru win✗ Miss
67.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sireți win✗ Miss
13.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.10
2.47
1.00
1.77
1.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.19
1.38
1.00
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (14)
3.14
1.00
3.44
1.00
2.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.30
2.94
1.06
2.07
1.57
vs Stronger (11)
2.45
1.27
2.80
1.00
2.17
1.50
vs Similar (17)
2.76
1.41
3.30
1.10
2.00
1.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.7%
Under 2.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 3.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
1-1 ✓
9.2%
1-0
7.9%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
7.5%
2-2
4.7%
0-0
4.6%
Zimbru goals ↓
Sireți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.8%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
1
7.9%
9.2%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
2
10%
9.7%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.8%
7.5%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.6%
4.4%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zimbru goals (down), columns = Sireți goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Zimbru
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.38
Politehnica UTM
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.12
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.25
Zimbru is 1.25 points better than Sireți in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.62
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Politehnica UTM
1.88
Petrocub
1.75
Dacia-Buiucani
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.00
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.62
Zimbru is 1.88 goals better than Sireți in terms of goals scored per game (2.62 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.75
Petrocub
1.12
Zimbru
1.12
Sireți
1.25
Politehnica UTM
1.50
Dacia-Buiucani
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.75
CSF Bălți
3.25
Zimbru is 0.12 goals better than Sireți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.82
0.59
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.69
0.50
0.75
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.29
1.11
0.44
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.53
1.44
0.25
1.29
0.86
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
0.82
1.00
0.40
1.67
1.17
vs Similar (17)
1.47
0.41
1.80
0.20
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.60
1.65
0.41
1.08
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.50
0.88
0.25
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
2.29
0.71
2.33
0.56
2.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.50
0.81
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.45
1.80
0.60
0.50
0.33
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.00
1.50
0.90
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Dacia-Buiucani
Petrocub
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți