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Zira vs Kapaz Result & Analysis

Date: 16/03/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 2-1
Zira
Zira
Vs
43%
30%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zira win✓ Hit
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kapaz win✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZiraZira

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D01L11D00D01L30W11D13LA·TUR16/12H·QAR24/12A·SƏB22/01H·SAB27/01A·QAB04/02H·SUM13/02A·NEF18/02A·ARA25/02H·TUR02/03A·QAR10/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.600.850.620.880.59
vs Stronger (3)0.671.330.001.001.001.50
vs Similar (13)0.690.620.830.670.570.57
vs Weaker (14)1.070.431.000.501.120.38
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L21W12L31W14L23L21W31W33DH·SUM14/12A·NEF24/12H·TUR22/01H·QAR27/01H·ARA05/02H·SƏB12/02A·SAB17/02H·QAB23/02A·SUM01/03H·NEF09/03
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.771.001.811.071.71
vs Stronger (20)1.002.001.091.730.892.33
vs Similar (10)1.101.300.802.001.400.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.5%
Under 1.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
11.2%
2-0
8.7%
2-1 ✓
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.8%
Zira goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
01234
011%8.5%4.8%1.6%0.4%
112%14%6.4%2.1%0.5%
28.7%8.6%4.2%1.4%0.3%
33.9%3.8%1.9%0.6%0.2%
41.3%1.3%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zira goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Zira is 0.64 points better than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Zira is 0.17 goals worse than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Zira is 1.25 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.61 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZiraZira

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L00D00D11D00D01L10W01L01LA·TUR16/12H·QAR24/12A·SƏB22/01H·SAB27/01A·QAB04/02H·SUM13/02A·NEF18/02A·ARA25/02H·TUR02/03A·QAR10/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.370.380.460.290.29
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (13)0.310.230.500.330.140.14
vs Weaker (14)0.430.430.330.500.500.38
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L11D00D21W11D11D11D10W11DH·SUM14/12A·NEF24/12H·TUR22/01H·QAR27/01H·ARA05/02H·SƏB12/02A·SAB17/02H·QAB23/02A·SUM01/03H·NEF09/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.900.561.000.430.79
vs Stronger (20)0.501.050.551.000.441.11
vs Similar (10)0.500.600.601.000.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZiraZira

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D01L00D00D00D20W10W12LA·TUR16/12H·QAR24/12A·SƏB22/01H·SAB27/01A·QAB04/02H·SUM13/02A·NEF18/02A·ARA25/02H·TUR02/03A·QAR10/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.230.460.150.590.29
vs Stronger (3)0.670.670.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.380.380.330.330.430.43
vs Weaker (14)0.640.000.670.000.620.00
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KapazKapaz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L10W12L10W03L12L10W21W22DH·SUM14/12A·NEF24/12H·TUR22/01H·QAR27/01H·ARA05/02H·SƏB12/02A·SAB17/02H·QAB23/02A·SUM01/03H·NEF09/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.870.440.810.640.93
vs Stronger (20)0.500.950.550.730.441.22
vs Similar (10)0.600.700.201.001.000.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Zira's squad is €7m more valuable than Kapaz's (€12m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Zira's attack is €5m more valuable than Kapaz's (€6m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Zira and Kapaz have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Zira's defence is €3m more valuable than Kapaz's (€6m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
ZIR wins
4
Draws
0
KAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zira vs Kapaz · H/A from ZIR
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23AKapaz Vs ZIR0-0
12/08/23HZIR Vs Kapaz1-0
12/05/23HZIR Vs Kapaz1-1
10/03/23AKapaz Vs ZIR1-1
25/12/22HZIR Vs Kapaz2-2
05/08/22AKapaz Vs ZIR1-2

ZiraZira

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/24AQarabag Vs ZIR3-1
02/03/24HZIR Vs Turan1-1
25/02/24AAraz Vs ZIR0-3
18/02/24ANeftchi Baku Vs ZIR1-0
13/02/24HZIR Vs Sumqayıt0-0
04/02/24AQabala Vs ZIR1-1
27/01/24HZIR Vs Sabah FA0-1
22/01/24ASəbail Vs ZIR0-0
24/12/23HZIR Vs Qarabag0-1
16/12/23ATuran Vs ZIR1-0

KapazKapaz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/24HKAP Vs Neftchi Baku3-3
01/03/24ASumqayıt Vs KAP1-3
23/02/24HKAP Vs Qabala2-1
17/02/24ASabah FA Vs KAP3-2
12/02/24HKAP Vs Səbail1-4
05/02/24HKAP Vs Araz3-1
27/01/24HKAP Vs Qarabag1-2
22/01/24HKAP Vs Turan2-1
24/12/23ANeftchi Baku Vs KAP2-0
14/12/23HKAP Vs Sumqayıt1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zira
Zira
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDL1.34
HomeDLLDD1.54
AwayDDLWL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals1.842.171.54
Over 1.5 %50%58%42%
Over 2.5 %32%38%27%
Over 3.5 %18%29%8%
Scored0.981.170.81
Conceded0.861.000.73
BTTS38%54%23%
Clean Sheet38%29%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Kapaz
Kapaz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.00
HomeLWLWD1.12
AwayDWLLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%27%17%
AVG goals2.662.542.79
Over 1.5 %74%69%79%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.041.041.04
Conceded1.621.501.75
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet16%19%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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