Zira vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

The contest between Zira and Neftchi Baku is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home win probability sits at 32%, a draw at 29%, and the away side enjoys 38%. The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most probable total being 2, a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 14% probability. Zira, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Neftchi Baku, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.83 conceded versus similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 74.9% probability, and Over 1.5 with 73.4%. The match’s recent form adds intrigue: Zira are on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Neftchi 1-0 in their last meeting, while Neftchi come off a defeat to Zira 0-1. The model picks an away win, yet the tight probabilities leave the outcome uncertain.

The match ended 1-1, a draw that shocked the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win, which had a 38% probability. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 meant the actual result was a draw. The model’s selection of Under 3.5, with a 74.9% probability, hit, as did the Over 1.5 pick at 73.4%. Zira, on a three-game winning run, and Neftchi Baku, coming off a defeat, both delivered a stalemate. The game’s outcome matched the model’s prediction of a 1-1 scoreline, but not the favourite’s win.