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Zira vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2026
Time: 16:15
Final 1-0
Zira
Zira
Vs
32%
30%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Zira and Neftchi Baku feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 32% and 39% respectively, while a draw is 30%. The expected total is 2.5 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.1% probability. Zira, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Neftchi Baku, on the road, averages 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0%) and Under 5.5 (96.0%) with a 2% edge. Both sides have shown recent form, with Zira on a two-game winning streak after a 3-1 win, and Neftchi Baku on a five-game winning run following a 5-0 triumph.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Away win, fell short as Zira edged Neftchi Baku 1-0, ending the home side’s three-game winning run. The model had picked the away side with a 39% probability, but the result proved wrong. The final score of 1-0 gave the home side the victory, contrary to expectations. The model’s selection for the total goals was 2.5, but the match produced only one goal. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.2%, and Under 5.5 hit at 96.0%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure was mentioned only once.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zira win✓ Hit
31.7%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.59
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.70
Betano
2.67
Dafabet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.03
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Pinnacle
3.05
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
38.7%
Avg Implied 35.2% · @ 2.57
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.67
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
William Hil
2.62

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ZiraZira

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D10W00D12L21W23L20W31WH·NEF17/04H·TUR21/04A·TUR27/04H·QAB03/05A·IMI08/05A·SAB13/05H·SUM17/05A·ARA23/05H·SAF16/08H·IMI22/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.901.190.811.141.00
vs Stronger (2)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (13)1.001.080.800.801.121.25
vs Weaker (15)1.330.601.440.561.170.67
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W11D15L21W30W30W21W10W31W50WH·ARA11/04A·ZIR17/04H·QAR26/04H·QAR30/04A·KAR05/05H·ŞAM10/05A·SAB17/05A·KAP23/05A·SUM16/08H·ARA23/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.201.032.641.291.810.81
vs Stronger (3)1.002.671.503.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)1.830.832.501.001.170.67
vs Weaker (15)2.730.873.171.002.440.78
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.35+3.9%
Under 1.5
28.0%
@ 2.88-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
BetVictor
2.90
Superbet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.9%
@ 2.11+1.1%
Under 2.5
55.1%
@ 1.64-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
Betfair
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Betfair
1.65
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
@ 3.80-0.5%
Under 3.5
76.3%
@ 1.21+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.5%
@ 1.80+0.7%
No
48.5%
@ 1.86-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
William Hil
1.80
No
William Hil
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 5.39+6.2%
0-1
9.8%@ 6.96+3.6%
0-0
9.7%@ 7.84+4.3%
1-0 ✓
8.5%@ 7.04+2.5%
1-2
8.4%@ 8.98+3.7%
2-1
7.5%@ 9.07+2.8%
0-2
7.2%@ 11.29+3.4%
2-0
5.7%@ 11.54+2.0%
Zira goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
09.7%9.8%7.2%3.2%1.0%
18.5%14%8.4%3.7%1.2%
25.7%7.5%4.9%2.1%0.7%
32.2%2.9%1.9%0.8%0.3%
40.6%0.8%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zira goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Zira is 0.18 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Zira is 0.42 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Zira is 0.12 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zira or Draw✓ Hit
61.3%
Avg Implied 64.7% · @ 1.42
Edge
-3.4%
32%
30%
39%
covers Zira + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.44
Superbet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Zira or Neftchi Baku✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied 70.1% · @ 1.31
Edge
+0.3%
32%
30%
39%
covers Zira + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.40
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Draw or Neftchi Baku✗ Miss
68.3%
Avg Implied 65.3% · @ 1.41
Edge
+3.1%
32%
30%
39%
covers Draw + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.40

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zira over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.7%
@ 1.32-0.7%
Under
31.3%
@ 2.99+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.20
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.97
10Bet
2.95
Zira over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.4%
@ 2.63-2.7%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.42+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Marathonbet
2.64
1xBet
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Zira over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 6.22-3.5%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.08+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.70
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.70
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Zira over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 11.00-5.4%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.0%
@ 1.32+3.8%
Under
27.0%
@ 2.97-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.92
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.66+2.9%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.41-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
1xBet
2.72
Under
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 6.45+0.3%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.07-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.95
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
5.35
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Neftchi Baku over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 11.00-4.1%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Zira, so a minus line means Zira give that many goals of a start and Neftchi Baku receive them. At -1, Zira must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zira win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zira)Actual: Neftchi Baku
Zira -2
4.3%
@ 13.50-2.5%
Draw -2
9.2%
@ 7.75-2.6%
Neftchi Baku +2
86.5%
@ 1.12+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Away
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Zira)Actual: Draw
Zira -1
13.5%
@ 5.58-2.6%
Draw -1
18.2%
@ 4.12-3.6%
Neftchi Baku +1
68.3%
@ 1.45+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
Handicap +1 (Zira)Actual: Zira
Zira +1
61.3%
@ 1.42-1.8%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 4.19-0.7%
Neftchi Baku -1
18.1%
@ 5.77+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.37
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.00
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Handicap +2 (Zira)Actual: Zira
Zira +2
81.9%
@ 1.11+2.7%
Draw +2
11.7%
@ 6.57-1.7%
Neftchi Baku -2
6.4%
@ 11.85-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Marathonbet
6.55

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ZiraZira

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D00D10W11D02L10W10WH·NEF17/04H·TUR21/04A·TUR27/04H·QAB03/05A·IMI08/05A·SAB13/05H·SUM17/05A·ARA23/05H·SAF16/08H·IMI22/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.500.440.430.50
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.501.00--
vs Similar (13)0.310.690.200.600.380.75
vs Weaker (15)0.600.200.670.220.500.17
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D13L00D10W10W11D00D20W40WH·ARA11/04A·ZIR17/04H·QAR26/04H·QAR30/04A·KAR05/05H·ŞAM10/05A·SAB17/05A·KAP23/05A·SUM16/08H·ARA23/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.331.360.430.690.25
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.501.500.000.00
vs Similar (12)1.000.251.500.330.500.17
vs Weaker (15)1.130.271.500.170.890.33
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.8%
@ 1.43+4.7%
Under 0.5
31.2%
@ 2.55-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 3.02+2.9%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.32-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Pinnacle
3.12
William Hil
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.5%
@ 8.13-0.9%
Under 2.5
89.5%
@ 1.04+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.70
Betfair
7.50
Under
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
Superbet
1.04

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.9%
@ 2.22+1.4%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.58-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
Zira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 8.10-0.4%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.03+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
8.00
Under
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Zira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.8%
@ 2.21+4.1%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.58-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.12
Under
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 8.20-0.3%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.03+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.00
Under
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ZiraZira

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W10W00D02L10W21W10W21WH·NEF17/04H·TUR21/04A·TUR27/04H·QAB03/05A·IMI08/05A·SAB13/05H·SUM17/05A·ARA23/05H·SAF16/08H·IMI22/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.430.690.380.710.50
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.501.00--
vs Similar (13)0.690.380.600.200.750.50
vs Weaker (15)0.730.400.780.330.670.50
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D02L21W20W20W10W10W11D10WH·ARA11/04A·ZIR17/04H·QAR26/04H·QAR30/04A·KAR05/05H·ŞAM10/05A·SAB17/05A·KAP23/05A·SUM16/08H·ARA23/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.701.290.861.120.56
vs Stronger (3)0.671.671.001.500.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.581.000.670.670.50
vs Weaker (15)1.600.601.670.831.560.44
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.8%
@ 1.26+4.3%
Under 0.5
23.2%
@ 3.34-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.30
William Hil
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.2%
@ 2.25+2.4%
Under 1.5
56.8%
@ 1.55-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
William Hil
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.8%
@ 5.26+0.3%
Under 2.5
82.2%
@ 1.11-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
4.60
Under
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.5%
@ 1.85-0.1%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.81+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Zira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.0%
@ 5.60+0.7%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.09-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Under
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Zira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.5%
@ 1.85+1.0%
Under
49.5%
@ 1.82-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 5.75+1.0%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.08-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.598.7%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals98.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.9%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals96.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02
----+5.4%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals96.2%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals96.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.596.0%1.01
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
--+1.8%✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals95.6%1.02
Bet365
1.02
----+4.1%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals89.5%1.04
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+0.9%✓ Hit
Under 4.589.5%1.04
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.2%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals89.1%1.03
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
---+0.3%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals89.0%1.03
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
---+0.4%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals88.7%1.08
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.5%✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap86.5%1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.10
---+5.0%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals85.5%1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-0.3%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals83.2%1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
----1.0%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals83.0%1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
----0.7%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals82.2%1.11
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-0.3%✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap81.9%1.11
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
--+2.7%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals76.8%1.26
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+4.3%✗ Miss
Under 3.576.3%1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+0.5%✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals73.0%1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
+3.8%✗ Miss
Over 1.572.0%1.35
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.35
+3.9%✗ Miss
Home or Away70.3%1.31
BetVictor
1.40
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
+0.3%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Zira and Neftchi Baku have a similar squad value (both €12m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Zira's attack is €2m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€6m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Zira's midfield is €2m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Zira and Neftchi Baku have a similar defence value (both €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
ZIR wins
4
Draws
2
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Zira vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from ZIR
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/26HZIR Vs Neftchi Baku1-1
23/01/26ANeftchi Baku Vs ZIR0-0
02/12/25HZIR Vs Neftchi Baku0-0
03/10/25HZIR Vs Neftchi Baku2-2
13/04/25ANeftchi Baku Vs ZIR2-4
10/02/25HZIR Vs Neftchi Baku1-2
23/11/24ANeftchi Baku Vs ZIR2-1
15/09/24HZIR Vs Neftchi Baku2-0

ZiraZira

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/26HZIR Vs Imisli FK3-1
16/08/26HZIR Vs Safa Baku2-0
23/05/26AAraz Vs ZIR3-2
17/05/26HZIR Vs Sumqayıt2-1
13/05/26ASabah FA Vs ZIR2-1
08/05/26AImisli FK Vs ZIR0-0
03/05/26HZIR Vs Qabala1-0
27/04/26ATuran Vs ZIR1-1
21/04/26HZIR Vs Turan0-0
17/04/26HZIR Vs Neftchi Baku1-1

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/26HNB Vs Araz5-0
16/08/26ASumqayıt Vs NB1-3
23/05/26AKapaz Vs NB0-1
17/05/26ASabah FA Vs NB1-2
10/05/26HNB Vs Şamaxı FK3-0
05/05/26AKarvan Vs NB0-3
30/04/26HNB Vs Qarabag2-1
26/04/26HNB Vs Qarabag1-5
17/04/26AZira Vs NB1-1
11/04/26HNB Vs Araz2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Zira
Zira
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.78
HomeDWWWW1.85
AwayDDDLL1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%46%46%
AVG goals2.242.152.33
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %36%35%38%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.341.381.29
Conceded0.900.771.04
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet44%46%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.72
HomeWLWWW1.50
AwayDWWWW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%38%54%
AVG goals2.883.252.54
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %58%62%54%
Over 3.5 %36%42%31%
Scored1.802.001.62
Conceded1.081.250.92
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet34%33%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZiraZira39
100%
3.0
61+5
2.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6162.00.3
-
2Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku36
67%
2.0
82+6
3.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4362.70.7
-
3QarabagQarabag26
100%
3.0
41+3
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.00.5
-
4Sabah FASabah FA26
100%
3.0
30+3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.50.0
-
5TuranTuran34
33%
1.3
11+0
0.7
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3250.30.3
-
6Imisli FKImisli FK34
33%
1.3
23-1
1.7
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.0
-
7KapazKapaz23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.51.0
-
8Safa BakuSafa Baku33
33%
1.0
13-2
1.3
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1030.31.0
-
9Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK32
0%
0.7
13-2
1.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.31.0
-
10QabalaQabala31
0%
0.3
02-2
0.7
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.00.7
-
11ArazAraz31
0%
0.3
06-6
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.02.0
-
12SumqayıtSumqayıt20
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.52.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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