This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.93
1.57
0.86
1.69
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.25
1.75
vs Similar (18)
1.72
0.89
1.50
0.88
1.90
0.90
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.50
2.50
0.75
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.0%
1-0
12.6%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
8.3%
0-0
8.1%
3-1 ✓
6.1%
0-1
4.2%
Zira goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
4.2%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.5%
0.8%
0.2%
3
8.3%
6.1%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.0%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zira goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Qarabag
2.17
MOIK
2.00
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Turan
2.00
Sabah FA
1.67
Səbail
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Safa Baku
1.00
Zira
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.67
Difai Ağsu
0.50
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Zira is 0.50 points worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.00
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
MOIK
2.00
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Sabah FA
1.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Şəmkir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Zira
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.33
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Zira is 2.50 goals worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 3.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Qarabag
0.67
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Sabah FA
0.83
MOIK
1.00
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zira
1.33
Turan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
Karvan
3.00
Şimal
3.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Zira is 0.67 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zira or Draw✓ Hit
87.5%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
12%
covers Zira + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira or Şamaxı FK✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
12%
covers Zira + Şamaxı FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şamaxı FK✗ Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
12%
covers Draw + Şamaxı FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zira over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.3%
Under
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zira, so a minus line means Zira give that many goals of a start and Şamaxı FK receive them. At -1, Zira must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zira win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zira)Actual: Draw
Zira -2
19.6%
Draw -2
20.3%
Şamaxı FK +2
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zira)Actual: Zira
Zira -1
39.9%
Draw -1
24.6%
Şamaxı FK +1
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zira)Actual: Zira
Zira +1
87.5%
Draw +1
8.8%
Şamaxı FK -1
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zira)Actual: Zira
Zira +2
96.3%
Draw +2
2.9%
Şamaxı FK -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.69
0.50
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.50
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.22
1.00
0.40
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
0.86
0.29
1.12
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.39
0.75
0.25
1.20
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
1.50
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.00
0.44
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.67
1.00
0.56
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.11
1.40
0.20
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.71
0.57
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.50
0.75
0.62
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Zira's squad is €8m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€12m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Zira's attack is €5m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Zira and Şamaxı FK have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Zira's defence is €4m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€6m vs €2m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Qarabag
Araz
Turan
Sabah FA
Neftchi Baku
Sumqayıt
Kapaz
Səbail