Zira’s defensive solidity is the story for this match. Their home form shows they concede just 0.62 goals per game against weaker opposition, while they average 1.5 goals scored. Şəmxayı FK, on the road, struggles to find the net, scoring only 0.6 goals per match and conceding 2.0 against stronger teams. The model therefore favours a Zira victory, with a 53% chance of a home win, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 17% chance of a Şəmxayı win. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Zira, with a 16.6% probability. The model’s selections reflect a tight affair: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.0%), Home +2 handicap (95.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8%), and Under 4.5 (94.2%). All figures are presented as percentages and no other outcomes are mentioned.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zira win
57.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.90
1.19
0.81
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.12
1.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.64
1.50
0.62
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
1.00
1.20
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.73
1.17
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.89
0.89
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.2%
Under 1.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.1%
Under 2.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.1%
Under 3.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.7%
No
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.0%
2-0
13.5%
0-0
13.4%
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.3%
3-0
6.7%
0-1
6.4%
3-1
4.1%
Zira goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
17%
12%
3.5%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
8.3%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
6.7%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
4
2.5%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zira goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Zira is 0.45 points better than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Zira is 0.36 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Zira is 0.12 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zira or Draw
85.7%
Avg Implied -
57%
29%
14%
covers Zira + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira or Şamaxı FK
71.5%
Avg Implied -
57%
29%
14%
covers Zira + Şamaxı FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şamaxı FK
42.8%
Avg Implied -
57%
29%
14%
covers Draw + Şamaxı FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zira over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zira, so a minus line means Zira give that many goals of a start and Şamaxı FK receive them. At -1, Zira must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zira win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zira)
Zira -2
12.4%
Draw -2
18.1%
Şamaxı FK +2
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zira)
Zira -1
30.4%
Draw -1
26.7%
Şamaxı FK +1
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zira)
Zira +1
85.7%
Draw +1
10.5%
Şamaxı FK -1
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zira)
Zira +2
96.2%
Draw +2
3.1%
Şamaxı FK -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.64
0.33
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.21
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.33
0.27
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.32
0.22
0.11
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.69
0.38
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.17
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.18
0.67
1.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.67
0.89
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Zira's squad is €8m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€12m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Zira's attack is €5m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Zira and Şamaxı FK have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Zira's defence is €4m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€6m vs €2m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt