The contest between Zira and Sumqayıt is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 41% for a Zira victory, 27% for a draw and 32% for a Sumqayıt win, making the home side the most likely result. The average number of goals expected is 3.0, yet the single most likely total is 2 goals, with a 24% chance. The most probable exact scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability, and that is the only scoreline to be named.
Zira’s home form shows an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.17 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas Sumqayıt’s away record against stronger teams is 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Under 5.5 (91.9%), Home +2 handicap (84.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (83.7%) and Under 4.5 (82.1%). Each of these selections is presented with its exact probability and no other outcomes are attached to them. The preview remains neutral, focusing on the balanced nature of the match and the statistical indicators that guide the model’s predictions.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Zira secured a 2-0 victory, extending their two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 41% probability, and the result matched the forecast. Every suggested selection performed as expected: Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Under 5.5 (91.9%), Home +2 handicap (84.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (83.7%), and Under 4.5 (82.1%) all hit. The match’s final score of 2-0 confirmed the model’s choices and highlighted Zira’s strong home form against a weaker opponent.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zira win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Zira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.87
1.27
0.67
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
1.07
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
1.64
0.64
1.67
0.17
1.62
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.37
1.36
1.57
1.38
1.19
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.92
1.17
2.33
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.06
1.50
1.00
1.25
1.12
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
-
-
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.0%
Under 2.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.0%
2-0 ✓
6.4%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-1
6.0%
Zira goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
6.0%
4.9%
2.3%
0.8%
1
7.0%
12%
7.8%
3.6%
1.3%
2
6.4%
8.9%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.4%
4.7%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Zira goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Qarabag
2.00
Sabah FA
2.00
Turan
2.00
Difai Ağsu
1.50
MOIK
1.50
Səbail
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.33
Zira
1.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
0.98
Goy-Gol
0.98
Şəki PFK
0.98
Kür-Araz
0.98
Xankəndi FK
0.98
Şirvan FK
0.98
Araz Saatlı
0.98
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Safa Baku
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Zira is 0.33 points worse than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.50
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
MOIK
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Sabah FA
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Difai Ağsu
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Ağstafa Gəncləri
1.46
Goy-Gol
1.46
Şəki PFK
1.46
Kür-Araz
1.46
Xankəndi FK
1.46
Şirvan FK
1.46
Araz Saatlı
1.46
Şəmkir
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Sumqayıt
1.00
Zira
1.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Zira and Sumqayıt are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Qarabag
0.83
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Sabah FA
1.00
Zira
1.33
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
MOIK
2.00
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Turan
2.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
2.61
Goy-Gol
2.61
Şəki PFK
2.61
Kür-Araz
2.61
Xankəndi FK
2.61
Şirvan FK
2.61
Araz Saatlı
2.61
Şimal
3.00
Safa Baku
3.00
Karvan
3.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Zira is 0.33 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Zira or Draw✓ Hit
67.6%
Avg Implied -
41%
27%
32%
covers Zira + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira or Sumqayıt✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
27%
32%
covers Zira + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sumqayıt✗ Miss
59.0%
Avg Implied -
41%
27%
32%
covers Draw + Sumqayıt
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Zira over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Zira, so a minus line means Zira give that many goals of a start and Sumqayıt receive them. At -1, Zira must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Zira win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Zira)Actual: Draw
Zira -2
8.5%
Draw -2
12.6%
Sumqayıt +2
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Zira)Actual: Zira
Zira -1
21.2%
Draw -1
19.8%
Sumqayıt +1
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Zira)Actual: Zira
Zira +1
67.6%
Draw +1
17.3%
Sumqayıt -1
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Zira)Actual: Zira
Zira +2
84.8%
Draw +2
9.7%
Sumqayıt -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.73
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.00
0.83
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.36
1.00
0.17
0.62
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.57
0.64
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.83
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.29
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.79
0.93
0.94
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.08
0.67
1.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.44
0.88
0.50
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Zira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →